JoMo Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 I wonder how the cansips did last winter. I know the UK seasonal did fairly well last year so curious on what that shows in a couple of weeks. Not sure, these things are kind of a crap shoot from more than a month out. It does look like the Oct outlook will probably get close to what Nov will probably turn out to be though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 No Daylight savings time means the models come in an hour sooner. yay It was foggy this morning, yet the sun was able to shine through so it looked pretty amazing out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 No Daylight savings time means the models come in an hour sooner. yay It was foggy this morning, yet the sun was able to shine through so it looked pretty amazing out there. Been some pretty decent fogs down this way the last week also. Fog and webworms webs all over the trees all the past week really set the mood for Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 In the weeklies today..... Still suggests that we get a southern storm track going as we head just past mid-Nov. +AO that gradually heads to around neutral by early Dec. -PNA rising to around neutral as we go into early Dec. Nothing looks too interesting at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 In the weeklies today..... Still suggests that we get a southern storm track going as we head just past mid-Nov. +AO that gradually heads to around neutral by early Dec. -PNA rising to around neutral as we go into early Dec. Nothing looks too interesting at this point in time. Looks more canonical Nino at least by week 4 though. Still a raging ++AO...we made need a miracle to see a -AO by New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Another forecast from a Met. This one is a bit different. http://blogs.wave3.com/weather_blog/2015/10/winter-outlook-2015-2016-1.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 3, 2015 Author Share Posted November 3, 2015 Another forecast from a Met. This one is a bit different. http://blogs.wave3.com/weather_blog/2015/10/winter-outlook-2015-2016-1.html That works. Getting to notice at least one trend that is positive here. Everyone seems to have this area cashing in with some good snows this year. If that happens, I won't be so mad if the cold isn't too exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Bit concerned about severe weather on Thursday.... 12z Euro had some snow on the map across Nebraska and Iowa around the 12th, always nice to see that even if it doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 3, 2015 Author Share Posted November 3, 2015 Bit concerned about severe weather on Thursday.... 12z Euro had some snow on the map across Nebraska and Iowa around the 12th, always nice to see that even if it doesn't happen. Yeah. Been watching Thursday. If it gets warm enough, will have quite a bit to worry about I think. Had a hard time warming up today. Think I was the coolest spot in the state today at 64 degrees thanks to the clouds. Hoping I can squeeze a frost out of the next cold front (maybe saturday) so I can mow my yard for the last time and put my mower up for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Looks like the new SST CA is out. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51hd/sst/201510/carealtime.html Compared to last month there was a slight shift west of the Aleutian low and resultant ridge up into Canada (perhaps due to warmer SST's farther west in the tropical Pacific?) Coldest temp anomalies might have nudged north in our area a tiny bit but pretty much unchanged: Precip is virtually unchanged: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 5, 2015 Author Share Posted November 5, 2015 Thank you for the update man. I'm thinking around month's end we start seeing some nice changes. I hope anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Euro weeklies: Looks to remains stormy across the SW and southern US into early Dec. Still looks like an Aleutian ridge, with Alaska being stormy, storminess may develop south of the Aleutians at the end of the first week of Dec. It does look like there will be more cold air intrusions, especially into the western US, then flowing out into the Plains. +AO looks to hang on this run into early Dec with the -PNA gradually going to around positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Is this the first long range GFS fantasy snow for our immediate area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 Is this the first long range GFS fantasy snow for our immediate area? Wow. I think yes! That's quite the bomb there! Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Well, fantasy snow in the long range is my cue to quit merely anonymously lurking the forum. Looking forward to this winter with y'all, and thanks to those of you who have kept things going around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 Well, fantasy snow in the long range is my cue to quit merely anonymously lurking the forum. Looking forward to this winter with y'all, and thanks to those of you who have kept things going around here. Welcome back. I think as we get to the last part of the month and on into December things might get a little crazy around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Welcome back. I think as we get to the last part of the month and on into December things might get a little crazy around here. Well the Euro ensembles/control definitely suggest something more exciting after about the 20th or so? That's when it starts strengthening the storm systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 Well the Euro ensembles/control definitely suggest something more exciting after about the 20th or so? That's when it starts strengthening the storm systems. Yeah. Sounds about right. I'll be noting the changes and trends throughout the next week or so of model runs now for sure. I'm starting to see a lot less ways to fail this year than I did last year. I just chose to ignore too many of them last year. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 Wonder where all the rest of our winter friends are. It's practically the 2nd week of preseason already. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 There are many ways for this winter to be a dud. There are also ways for it to be pretty good. We have a huge basin wide El Nino out there, which we basically have never had ...at least as strong as this one. Sub tropical jet will likely be extremely active at times. Any real cold air intrusions probably won't last too long as the jet cuts it off and shunts it away. If we can get the STJ and the polar jet to combine a few times in the middle of the country we could get some blockbusters. It's going to be interesting to watch this pattern evolve. Unfortunately I need things to come further north up here near St. Louis than you folks down south. I have a feeling I'll be watching many a storm cruise by to my south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 There are many ways for this winter to be a dud. There are also ways for it to be pretty good. We have a huge basin wide El Nino out there, which we basically have never had ...at least as strong as this one. Sub tropical jet will likely be extremely active at times. Any real cold air intrusions probably won't last too long as the jet cuts it off and shunts it away. If we can get the STJ and the polar jet to combine a few times in the middle of the country we could get some blockbusters. It's going to be interesting to watch this pattern evolve. Unfortunately I need things to come further north up here near St. Louis than you folks down south. I have a feeling I'll be watching many a storm cruise by to my south. Yeah. I think you folks up to the north could see some really nice phasing type storms this year. Those would be pretty epic just to see even from an onlookers standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 I'm also curious about what the effect of the strong full basin Nino will be. I know El-Nino's tend to have more cutoffs and more southwest lows with split flow. In other news the 12z GFS has a pretty big negative EPO spike which delivers cold air to the nation after the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 I'm also curious about what the effect of the strong full basin Nino will be. I know El-Nino's tend to have more cutoffs and more southwest lows with split flow. In other news the 12z GFS has a pretty big negative EPO spike which delivers cold air to the nation after the 20th. Geez! That escalated quickly. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Both the Euro and the GFS are showing big changes around the 20th. Not sure where or what those changes will be, but when they sniff something out and start showing wild solutions, then something is changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Good news. I'm always more excited when the time changes in the fall. Don't have to sit up until midnight waiting on the 0z runs of GEM and GFS to come thru, and of course, the weather starts evolving to colder and rumors of winter storms. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 7, 2015 Author Share Posted November 7, 2015 EURO has a watchable situation developing over SW TX for day 10. I know it's day 10 but it appears possible. If it ejects out of there thanksgiving week, it will pretty much explode over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Say wha??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 8, 2015 Author Share Posted November 8, 2015 Say wha??? Holy fu.....! That's different. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Down to 29 here right now. Must be a pocket of colder air as the airport isn't this cold. Looks like my growing season may have finally come to an end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 8, 2015 Author Share Posted November 8, 2015 Yeah. Getting to check my first frost off the list here finally as well. Beautiful to see everything all covered in ice crystals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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