OKwx2K4 Posted October 25, 2015 Author Share Posted October 25, 2015 As long as we go in that direction, fantastic. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Models are still going with the ridge over the GoA and Aleutians. This should allow troughing to develop over the west coast and southwest with a SE ridge. Continues through the extended: As modeled, the west should be cooler than normal and stormy, with the east warm. Weeklies later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 26, 2015 Author Share Posted October 26, 2015 Very unusual pattern for an El Niño huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Very unusual pattern for an El Niño huh? It is, as far as strong Nino's go, I can't really find a match between the expected pattern and any of the strong Nov nino's. It's possible '82 may be the closest if we start getting cooler air in the Plains during the 2nd half of Nov. If it's all warm everywhere, something like 2009 (moderate) may be what Nov looks like. It appears it will be the opposite of 1997 which was warm west and cool east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 26, 2015 Author Share Posted October 26, 2015 I'll lose my mind if we had an 82-83. Less than 2 inches of snow. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 It is, as far as strong Nino's go, I can't really find a match between the expected pattern and any of the strong Nov nino's. It's possible '82 may be the closest if we start getting cooler air in the Plains during the 2nd half of Nov. If it's all warm everywhere, something like 2009 (moderate) may be what Nov looks like. It appears it will be the opposite of 1997 which was warm west and cool east. Yeah, Nov 82 is close to what the first 10 days of Nov per ensembles...but no two winters are alike so we will see. 82/83 did have +QBO like we probably will have this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Weeklies: Still building the Aleutian/GoA ridge that the ensembles have been showing. Looks active out into the western US with a SE ridge until about mid-Nov. It still looks like around mid-Nov is when we'll see the southern storm track kick in. Not a real strong signal either way in the GoA at that time. Looks like a predominantly +AO through Nov with a -PNA slowly increasing to around neutral to positive by the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Yet another winter forecast with 125-200% snowfall across OK/AR. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/Winter1415/Winter201516Forecast.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 27, 2015 Author Share Posted October 27, 2015 Yet another winter forecast with 125-200% snowfall across OK/AR. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/Winter1415/Winter201516Forecast.pdf Yep. Lost him at 1997-98 and east based Niño analogs. I ALWAYS admire and credit those that do these forecasts. They do such a great job displaying their ideas in ways that I never could. That being said, why do so much that shows how this is different than the 2 super Niños and go with classic Niño composite anyway? I just don't see how we get to that composite from where we are now but maybe I'm just being narrow minded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 27, 2015 Author Share Posted October 27, 2015 I finally found the link to the Brazilian meteograms that JB uses. Thought I'd share it. :-) http://previsaonumerica.cptec.inpe.br/~rpnum/meteogramas/meteo_acopladot062.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Yep. Lost him at 1997-98 and east based Niño analogs. I ALWAYS admire and credit those that do these forecasts. They do such a great job displaying their ideas in ways that I never could. That being said, why do so much that shows how this is different than the 2 super Niños and go with classic Niño composite anyway? I just don't see how we get to that composite from where we are now but maybe I'm just being narrow minded. Safe bet to go with El-Nino conditions since it's a strong El-Nino. All the models are going with the El-Nino look. If you believe in repeating patterns, then the ridging that is coming up in the GoA and Aleutians might make for an interesting time when it comes back around with winter wavelengths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 28, 2015 Author Share Posted October 28, 2015 Safe bet to go with El-Nino conditions since it's a strong El-Nino. All the models are going with the El-Nino look. If you believe in repeating patterns, then the ridging that is coming up in the GoA and Aleutians might make for an interesting time when it comes back around with winter wavelengths. I really do get where they come from in doing it, it just drives me crazy a little. I won't rant about it anymore. Lol. I think I do believe in a recurring pattern of sorts but I don't quite understand them if that makes any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 28, 2015 Author Share Posted October 28, 2015 Safe bet to go with El-Nino conditions since it's a strong El-Nino. All the models are going with the El-Nino look. If you believe in repeating patterns, then the ridging that is coming up in the GoA and Aleutians might make for an interesting time when it comes back around with winter wavelengths. On recurring patterns, I looked a little into the LRC a little while ago and it seems to me that Lezak likes mid-late December on into early January for quite a few events. Nice to know I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 29, 2015 Author Share Posted October 29, 2015 If I've read correctly, we are near (slightly above) last year and only behind 1976 in SAI for anyone who follows that stuff. I think snowcover is a bit lower than that and pretty paltry on the North American side of the globe. I did notice on what snowcover map I have seen that it seems like western Siberia has performed much better than last year. I don't know what correlation that has if any. Just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Woke up to 40 degrees this morning. Not quite used to that just yet# heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 First frost advisory for here tonight. Euro Weeklies: Becoming more active over the west and southwest by mid-Nov with activity spreading across the south. Remains active across the west through the end of the month. Still looks to be ridging hanging tough out by the Aleutians. La Nino look remains. +AO that is slowly dropping closer to neutral as we get to the end of the month. Negative to neutral PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 30, 2015 Author Share Posted October 30, 2015 I saw Larry Cosgrove's forecast this morning. It looks like a very similar idea to what I'm thinking. Didn't overdo the standard Niño garbage and really presented very balanced and nicely weighted variables throughout. I can't link it correctly but it can be found on his Facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 This is a link to Cosgrove's forecast. I don't think his Nov forecast looks anything like what the Weeklies and models are showing, so I'm unsure about the rest of his forecast. https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/weatheramerica/uvI2m7ygRy4 Here's a video link to someone else's forecast which seems crazy.... http://www.wrcbtv.com/story/30373949/pauls-2015-winter-weather-outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 30, 2015 Author Share Posted October 30, 2015 This is a link to Cosgrove's forecast. I don't think his Nov forecast looks anything like what the Weeklies and models are showing, so I'm unsure about the rest of his forecast. https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/weatheramerica/uvI2m7ygRy4 Here's a video link to someone else's forecast which seems crazy.... http://www.wrcbtv.com/story/30373949/pauls-2015-winter-weather-outlook Yeah, not quite sure what he had going on with November now that you mention it. The rest of it seems pretty solid though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 This is a link to Cosgrove's forecast. I don't think his Nov forecast looks anything like what the Weeklies and models are showing, so I'm unsure about the rest of his forecast. https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/weatheramerica/uvI2m7ygRy4 Here's a video link to someone else's forecast which seems crazy.... http://www.wrcbtv.com/story/30373949/pauls-2015-winter-weather-outlook Belt of snow to far south. In my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Happy Halloween! CanSIPS Nov run should be this evening. Let's hope it's spooktacular! November still looks pretty warm. The west looks stormy and cooler. Nino 1.2 has more than likely peaked. It may recover a bit, or hold steady. The CFS which is reactive shows the expected drop, and then holds it pretty steady. Nino 3 will probably warm a bit more, Nino 3.4 will likely warm a bit more and Nino 4 will warm a bit more as well. Making this a basin-wide Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 CanSIPS has updated for Nov. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015110100&fh=3&xpos=0&ypos=195 More of a Positive AO look for December. It has the western 1/2 of the US cold though and stormy. Above normal precip in our area The southern stream has shifted a bit farther south and west compared to last months run: January is interesting. It pretty much kept the Aleutian Low where it was on last month's run but backed the lowest heights farther west towards Texas. It is also very cold for much of the country. We'd also have above normal precip Feb changed from what you'd normally expect as far as temps. Aleutian low position a little farther south, Lowest heights still over the SE US. Feb is below normal when it comes to precip, with temps around normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 CanSIPS has updated for Nov. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015110100&fh=3&xpos=0&ypos=195 More of a Positive AO look for December. It has the western 1/2 of the US cold though and stormy. Above normal precip in our area The southern stream has shifted a bit farther south and west compared to last months run: January is interesting. It pretty much kept the Aleutian Low where it was on last month's run but backed the lowest heights farther west towards Texas. It is also very cold for much of the country. We'd also have above normal precip Feb changed from what you'd normally expect as far as temps. Aleutian low position a little farther south, Lowest heights still over the SE US. Feb is below normal when it comes to precip, with temps around normal. That's a very cold January, I didn't think the Dec looked to bad, hard to tell but I would imagine end of Dec looks fairly good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 That's a very cold January, I didn't think the Dec looked to bad, hard to tell but I would imagine end of Dec looks fairly good. Yeah, I think it would be basically showing an active southern stream into Dec. Probably late Dec or January would be an Arctic outbreak based on the January map. Feb I'm not too sure about. I would think that it would actually be cold as well. Probably drier in this area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 1, 2015 Author Share Posted November 1, 2015 Yeah, I think it would be basically showing an active southern stream into Dec. Probably late Dec or January would be an Arctic outbreak based on the January map. Feb I'm not too sure about. I would think that it would actually be cold as well. Probably drier in this area though. That could be pretty darn impressive. What is that about -10F for down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 That could be pretty darn impressive. What is that about -10F for down here? Looks closer to -4 to -6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Looks closer to -4 to -6? Both of you are right...-4-6C so -8-11F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Oh, whoops, I missed the "F". Yeah that's a cold Jan look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 At the same time it's cold in Jan, you have this above normal precip. Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 At the same time it's cold in Jan, you have this above normal precip. Yikes! I wonder how the cansips did last winter. I know the UK seasonal did fairly well last year so curious on what that shows in a couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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