MoWeatherguy Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Those are exciting write-ups to say the least. Now if we can just get it to happen. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 20, 2015 Author Share Posted October 20, 2015 Couple of winter weather outlooks posted by meteorologists: Very detailed: https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-201516/ Not as detailed but you Arkansas and Oklahoma folks will really like it: http://www.weathervue.net/winter-forecast-15-16.html Sounds like fun. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 For those that follow Cohen and the snow advance, they are predicting a -AO winter. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation *Longer term we continue to favor a negative bias to the AO. Though not as rapid as the past two Octobers, Siberian snow cover has advanced this month at an above normal rate, Arctic sea ice extent remains below normal, and active atmospheric blocking favors the likelihood of troposphere-stratosphere coupling due to increased energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere. All three factors favor a negative winter AO. *Looking for longer term towards the winter we follow Siberian October snow cover extent, Barents-Kara sea ice extent and tropospheric precursors to try to predict the winter mean AO state. So far this October Siberian snow cover has advanced more rapidly than normal though not as fast as the two most recent Octobers. Arctic sea ice in the Barents Kara seas is below normal and certainly less extensive than last year at this time. Finally high latitude blocking has been above normal so far this October. In particular model forecast of the geopotential height field projects on to the pattern that favors increased energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere that eventually warms the polar stratosphere and weakens the polar vortex. We consider all of these factors to favor a negative winter AO and therefore a relatively cold winter across the Northern Hemisphere continents in the mid-latitudes. However we also have one of the strongest El Niños ongoing that is predicted to last through the winter. El Niño is thought to force milder winters across the extratopical Northern Hemisphere. It is challenging to anticipate how the final outcome of competing forcings from the tropics and the high latitudes will influence mid-latitude weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 This just might turn out to be a special winter with all the combination of variables at play here. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 20, 2015 Share Posted October 20, 2015 Cold Surge still showing up on the Euro today. More cold air building in central Canada, will it head South or east or both? Or will either happen at all? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 20, 2015 Author Share Posted October 20, 2015 Cold Surge still showing up on the Euro today. More cold air building in central Canada, will it head South or east or both? Or will either happen at all? lol That is one heck of a rapid reload up there! Very impressive if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 20, 2015 Author Share Posted October 20, 2015 Starting to make those negative temperature anomalies I was talking about last night make a little more sense also. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 WSI has this for Nov, Dec, Jan. All months colder than normal in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 21, 2015 Author Share Posted October 21, 2015 WSI has this for Nov, Dec, Jan. All months colder than normal in our area. I have to strongly disagree with that map but it is nice that they didn't do the usual Nino all out blowtorch over Canada. Just a little warm. Reanalysis data I have looked at for the months of August, September, and the first 15 days of October leans toward the colder years and all but rules out a 1997-98. If I'm wrong, so be it but I can't go warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I don't know, I like that map and colder than average for Dec/Jan would be good. I'm getting a little worried because the CFS v2 has had a longer stretch of showing below normal temps for our area this winter compared to what it usually shows. Seems the opposite has been true with it lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 21, 2015 Author Share Posted October 21, 2015 I don't know, I like that map and colder than average for Dec/Jan would be good. I'm getting a little worried because the CFS v2 has had a longer stretch of showing below normal temps for our area this winter compared to what it usually shows. Seems the opposite has been true with it lately. True. I don't call the CFS "Can't Forecast Sh*t" for nothing. Lol. I'm anxious to see what happens when these models quit waffling this pattern all over the place right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Everyone see OHweather's winter forecast post on the main forum? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47089-my-2015-2016-winter-outlook/ OHweather picked some snowy years for us, this is accumulated snowfall % of normal. I wouldn't mind another 1987-1988. Or 1957-1958: or 2002-2003: Had to be a badish year in there for someone in the area and that was 2006-2007... pass! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 22, 2015 Author Share Posted October 22, 2015 Sir, I never want 2006-07 to be spoken of again. :,-( I was so very mad that year. If I remember right most of 87-88 fell in one event, I would like the other years though. Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Sir, I never want 2006-07 to be spoken of again. :,-( I was so very mad that year. If I remember right most of 87-88 fell in one event, I would like the other years though. Good post. 87-88 was pretty big in OK from Mid-Dec to Mid-Jan or so. About a foot or so in the NW half of OK in mid-Dec. Big Ice storm around Christmas and then a big southern snowstorm the first week of Jan. That's the one where your area probably ended up with a lot as it produced 10+". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 22, 2015 Author Share Posted October 22, 2015 87-88 was pretty big in OK from Mid-Dec to Mid-Jan or so. About a foot or so in the NW half of OK in mid-Dec. Big Ice storm around Christmas and then a big southern snowstorm the first week of Jan. That's the one where your area probably ended up with a lot as it produced 10+". Probably so. I would have to look at it again. Sounds like there was something for everybody that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 22, 2015 Author Share Posted October 22, 2015 The forecast you mentioned was well written. Nice to see someone put so much work into their ideas whether I agree with them or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 You have awoken from your slumber a bit early...... Surely that's a sign of a good winter! Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Well, hello there spot! Nice to see you again!! Thank u! Hope we all have a good winter and have to use yard stick to measure all the $now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 22, 2015 Author Share Posted October 22, 2015 Thank u! Hope we all have a good winter and have to use yard stick to measure all the $now. Me too!! Maybe this is the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Euro Weeklies look to get the next (besides the short term) southern storm system train rolling from around Nov 15th through the end of the run which is around the 22nd. That may change though. Boring run for the most part, not seeing any big Nov cooldown as everything is still pretty progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I think much of November will be hot to trot...first 2-3 weeks anyway. Unfortunately. We'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Yeah, I think Nov looks pretty warm, maybe at least the first half. The MJO wave is going to make it pretty warm and it's going to shift the Aleutian low farther east over the GoA for a time, which should cause everyone to panic. Hopefully things will pick up the second half of Nov and the Aleutian low will start shifting back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 Give me the 10 day euro precip in Mid-December or January sometime. Nice pattern if it were that time of year instead of October-November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 I thought I'd get to see something record breaking this fall and winter with the Pacific at incredible heat levels. Just didn't think it would be a hurricane with the wind speeds of an F5 tornado! Just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 So this is new for the GoA and started showing up on the Euro ensembles last night, and is on the GFS ensembles today: Stays put: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 24, 2015 Author Share Posted October 24, 2015 So this is new for the GoA and started showing up on the Euro ensembles last night, and is on the GFS ensembles today: Stays put: Interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 So this is new for the GoA and started showing up on the Euro ensembles last night, and is on the GFS ensembles today: Stays put: That is a very Nina look and would be an active storm track would be interesting to see if the pattern plays out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 That is a very Nina look and would be an active storm track would be interesting to see if the pattern plays out like that. I thought it looked very nina'ish too. It's still on the 12z Euro ensembles. Looks like it would lead to a downstream western US trough eventually moving into the central US. We'll see if it changes again though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 24, 2015 Author Share Posted October 24, 2015 Definitely going to be difficult to see where we go from here for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 This is nice: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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