OKwx2K4 Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 Probably Feb into early to mid-March. It's strong El-Nino climo. As the Nino fades, the Aleutian low pulls back to the west, leading to more of a -EPO, with energy slipping under the ridge across the southern US. Was hoping this would all happen sooner, but the Nino got too strong. Yeah. Nino had a lot of backup from a peaking positive qbo also. Really has screwed this winter up. I don't really know where we go after spring this year but if there's 70s in January, probably multiple hundred degree days in this upcoming summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Long range looks cold but uneventful, boring. I just don't see any active fun times coming up. The flip to spring is coming soon I'm afraid. Thanks for nothing El Notto. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 We flipped to spring about December 5th down here. Lol. Non winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Agree, these temps are just insane! My friend in iowa hasn't even seen much snow if that tells ya anything! He said this is the least snowiest winter he has ever seen also, I believe they got probly a total of 9" so far even that far north lol. But yep this winter is pretty much done I feel, boring and depressing to say the least. I think this summer is going to be a scorcher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Agree, these temps are just insane! My friend in iowa hasn't even seen much snow if that tells ya anything! He said this is the least snowiest winter he has ever seen also, I believe they got probly a total of 9" so far even that far north lol. But yep this winter is pretty much done I feel, boring and depressing to say the least. I think this summer is going to be a scorcher I'm not really sure what I think about the upcoming summer yet but one thing I have found to be really unusual is that it seems that the weather pattern from late August is the one that repeated itself over and over again this year. (Warm south-central then warm east) Can't really think of a whole lot of years where that has happened. It's really just been a head scratcher. There has to be some other factors to add or subtract to find what drove this thing besides just El Niño. I've already attributed what I could to the QBO and lack of ssw, but I know there's a lot more to it than that. It just sucks really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I'm not really sure what I think about the upcoming summer yet but one thing I have found to be really unusual is that it seems that the weather pattern from late August is the one that repeated itself over and over again this year. (Warm south-central then warm east) Can't really think of a whole lot of years where that has happened. It's really just been a head scratcher. There has to be some other factors to add or subtract to find what drove this thing besides just El Niño. I've already attributed what I could to the QBO and lack of ssw, but I know there's a lot more to it than that. It just sucks really. Yea man everything feels odd and out of place over the past few seasons, the summers havent even been that bad here yet like I was expecting(heat heat and more heat and humidity lol). I havent seen a really decent winter either since probly 2006-07. Because I cannot wrap my head around models and data I just keep logs and follow patterns of things I see happen over the years, its just so random and weird though anymore lol. We are all due for one hell of a winter yet though, it always seems to play out every 5-6 years it seems idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Bored. Let's just skip ahead to summer and get ready for next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Yea man everything feels odd and out of place over the past few seasons, the summers havent even been that bad here yet like I was expecting(heat heat and more heat and humidity lol). I havent seen a really decent winter either since probly 2006-07. Because I cannot wrap my head around models and data I just keep logs and follow patterns of things I see happen over the years, its just so random and weird though anymore lol. We are all due for one hell of a winter yet though, it always seems to play out every 5-6 years it seems idk. How long have you lived in this area? Post 2011 I assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Time to wrap this "winter" up and move on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Yep I agree. One of the worst winters ever, if not the worst. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 On track for the least snowiest winter here. Currently sitting at 2" for the season. Well, next Nov looks cold on the latest CFS v2..... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Fayetteville has had a lot of stinkers over the last few winters. Years with 1 inch or less of snow: 11-12; 08-09: 07-08; and 06-07. And now this yr. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Tulsa is sitting at 3 inches for the year. Geeze...this was awful! I will never fall for the strong El Niño being good for our area ever again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Well history shows that strong El Nino's aren't usually good for our area. We were all just kind of staying positive hoping that it wouldn't be really horrible. There's still the chance we could get a big snowstorm or something still, through mid-march or so. But overall, this winter will be known largely as a non-winter. I got plants that are coming up out of the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Fayetteville has had a lot of stinkers over the last few winters. Years with 1 inch or less of snow: 11-12; 08-09: 07-08; and 06-07. And now this yr. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Wow crazy! A dusting, and it wasnt even that really, so far lol. Just barely covered the grass. This area just doesnt get much does it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 How long have you lived in this area? Post 2011 I assume? Was July 2013 when we moved here to fayetteville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 On track for the least snowiest winter here. Currently sitting at 2" for the season. Well, next Nov looks cold on the latest CFS v2..... lol Crap. We know what that means. TORCH. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Was July 2013 when we moved here to fayetteville. You missed the 2 back to back greatest winters our area has had since the early 1900s. 09-10 and 10-11 were historic. 09-10 skewed my judgement on the Niño this year. I'd be glad if we didn't have another for 4 years. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Well history shows that strong El Nino's aren't usually good for our area. I learned my lesson. I won't forget it soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 The entire 18Z GFS shows absolutely nothing near any of our areas... Until the end of the run (Feb. 20'ish), when it shows a nice system taking place over OK/KS, but as you can expect it shows it to be too warm for wintry precip with that system for any of us. (: EDIT: In other words, prepare for utter boredom, as far as the weather goes, the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 The entire 18Z GFS shows absolutely nothing near any of our areas... Until the end of the run (Feb. 20'ish), when it shows a nice system taking place over OK/KS, but as you can expect it shows it to be too warm for wintry precip with that system for any of us. (: EDIT: In other words, prepare for utter boredom, as far as the weather goes, the next two weeks. Winter's over. I'll be breaking out my lawnmower by March 15th this year probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 12z Euro has a major winter storm..... starting Sun Feb 14th. Probably a couple feet for MO/KS. Ice would be a problem as well. Cuts off at Day 10, but it would continue past that with the surface low around the Arklatex. Doubt it will happen......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 12z Euro has a major winter storm..... starting Sun Feb 14th. Probably a couple feet for MO/KS. Ice would be a problem as well. Cuts off at Day 10, but it would continue past that with the surface low around the Arklatex. Doubt it will happen......... This is it I feel it!Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 This is it I feel it! Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk haha, yeah.. looks like an ice to snow situation down there probably. Now to see if any of the other models actually pick it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 GFS has something post-240 but mostly east of this region. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 This is it I feel it! Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk I am with you on this, something...anything has to happen. Maybe this will be the one? lol....we can wish right haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 You missed the 2 back to back greatest winters our area has had since the early 1900s. 09-10 and 10-11 were historic. 09-10 skewed my judgement on the Niño this year. I'd be glad if we didn't have another for 4 years. Lol Yea man my neighbor said a year or two(cant remember now, go figure lol) before we moved here there was like a 22" snowstorm? I dont know how accurate that statement was but my other neighbor was talking about it also. I cant imagine that much snow here, it would cripple this city haha. They are terrible with the roads here with even a few inches! I can only imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 12z Euro control has it farther south across OK/AR. Ensemble members have a large spread but the majority don't have anything frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Whats this I see today, some snow flurries lol!!! Wooooo hooo haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Yes saw those at lunch. Must be a miracle! Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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