JoMo Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Euro weeklies look better around/just after Mid-Feb. -EPO showing up as the Aleutian low backs to the west. Stormy look in the central US. Looks good through the end of the run on the 25th. Hopefully we can pull something off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 That 57-58 analog is an interesting one (and bear in mind, I say this from my New Jersey perspective since that was my home for the first 47 years of my life). 57-58 is famous on the east coast because it was one of those rare years that had two truly historic storms in one winter. One of those storms (in March 1958) set snowfall records just inland from the big cities that were probably never approached again.... until this past weekend. If Cosgrove is right, maybe the east coast has another historic storm in their future this season, and maybe we can still see some variation on what 57-58 gave the southern plains. My question, as a newcomer, is what happened in 57-58 in these parts? Was the second half of that winter particularly snowy? And, yes, I am grasping at straws. LOL. February 1958 for Tulsa has 1.0 inches. March 1958 had 11.6. They also had a 4 inch snow in January. Seriously doubt we reach anything of that magnitude this year but who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 Fayetteville snow for 1958 December :1.1 January :2.2 February :0.6 March :4.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 0z gem anyone? In all seriousness, Gary lezak out of Kansas City who has the LRC (he came up with it with Doug heady) is calling for a major snowstorm for northern Missouri as of the 10 o'clock news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Storm system still going NW of here it looks like. We need that northern system to push south and force the storm system underneath it, but it's not happening so far and the 12z Euro lost the northern system completely this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Still missing us to the NW....... Models all have a similar track too and Heady's pattern says this storm should go right over us, leaving the snow to our NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 the old dgex says south trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 00z GFS says nope. Without a stronger initial system or a system pressing it south.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 The 0Z Euro on the other hand does take a further south track with the snow. I have a feeling we'll see things trend south over the next few days. I'll be mentioning the potential for accumulating snow in the Texas Panhandle with that system early next week. We'll have to watch just in case we get a little dryline action Monday Night east of Interstate 35. Hopefully we can get away without any major severe weather issues in Texas. Dixie Alley won't be so lucky though as they're in for a significant severe weather event on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 No southward shift on the 12z GFS. How's the Euro looking in the extended ranges? Any hope at all after this storm goes by? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 No southward shift on the 12z GFS. How's the Euro looking in the extended ranges? Any hope at all after this storm goes by? Nope, nothing sustained at least. Zzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 12z Euro ensembles today switched back to the -EPO look that Monday's weeklies had towards mid-Feb. The Aleutian low backs west, builds the -EPO, cold follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 All those times the last few years I griped about weak southwesterly flow snow events, I TAKE IT ALL BACK!!! Just bring me snow in any capacity. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Very frigid look to the 12z Euro ensembles in the extended today....... -AO, -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 But... storms or rumors of storms? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 But... storms or rumors of storms? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk The one in a few days will more than likely pass to our NW. After that, unsure, but cold air is always good to have around if there is a storm. The ensembles had a few members who were showing snow in our area in the next 15 days but not any overwhelming agreement or signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I'm with OkWx I'll take SW flow aloft with overriding if we can get it. NW flow does nothing for us here. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 100 hours below freezing to end the GFS run tonight. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Looks like some below normal departures are headed our way for a lot of Feb. Hopefully there will b a variety of storm tracks and we can cash in on a couple of them. It's all we got left at this point. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 100 hours below freezing to end the GFS run tonight. Interesting. The -EPO signature is showing up. Just need a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Also showing up in the next 6-7 days is the SSW event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Big storm showing up at 240 could be some fun times ahead. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Big storm showing up at 240 could be some fun times ahead. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Yeah, there was something in the 10-15 day on some of the Euro ensembles last night. 12z GEM has it farther NW, but it's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 The -EPO signature is showing up. Just need a storm. First map all season that has had the ridge out west in a good place with lower heights to our south. Maybe this is our chance finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 12z Euro has something around Day 10-11, and then gets cooooold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted January 30, 2016 Author Share Posted January 30, 2016 12z Euro has something around Day 10-11, and then gets cooooold. Sounds like we're going to have our entire winter concentrated into February. Maybe we can get a snow out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Yah I never underestimate February. Great snow month. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Sounds like we're going to have our entire winter concentrated into February. Maybe we can get a snow out of it. Probably Feb into early to mid-March. It's strong El-Nino climo. As the Nino fades, the Aleutian low pulls back to the west, leading to more of a -EPO, with energy slipping under the ridge across the southern US. Was hoping this would all happen sooner, but the Nino got too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 I will believe this junk when I see it happen lol. These temps are crazy, not that I am complaining it was an awesome day for a nice hike! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 It is 69 degrees here according to my Davis station can you believe it... With the temps being so warm it will likely be tornado weather with this cold front coming on Tuesday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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