Spot Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You know..I would rather have nice sunny days if I can't have snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 You know..I would rather have nice sunny days if I can't have snow. Same here. I'll take sunny and 55-75 til June. It's bad when I'm looking forward to severe weather season. I hate severe weather season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wow do we all sound down in the dumps, I usually complain cause I cannot get any snow but man now everyone is lol. Guess I could try and make some "snow guns" lol. Wait the upcoming blowtorch will just melt it away, cant win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ok tulsa, a winter weather advisory until 3am! lol....it was drizzling earlier now its just very very fine snow flurries. I dont know, just have no comments on this one...Im at a loss for words this time, will keep ya'll updated and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If you all want to see actual snow, keep an eye on the traffic cams in Maryland. http://www.chart.state.md.us/travinfo/trafficcams.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nice fantasy snow at the end of the 12z GFS. I'm so excited. (Sarcasm included). So, is it warming up or not? 00z run showed 50 degrees @ 384. 12z shows 14 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Keep ur enthusiasm tempered Waterboy haha. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I've said this before, but a lot of people who are decent long range forecasters say there is going to be a little warm up and then February is going to be pretty cold. I have no idea if that's true, but I've been reading that the AO is going to go strongly negative again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks like the 12z Euro ensembles have the worst of the upcoming heatwave passing after Feb 4th or so. The control run is generally fiery through the whole run which ends on the 6th. All the frozen stuff is found way NW of here. There are some interesting signs showing up though with regards to more ridging at the pole though. Have to see if that sticks around as it may lead to some quick model changes if it sticks around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If you all want to see actual snow, keep an eye on the traffic cams in Maryland. http://www.chart.state.md.us/travinfo/trafficcams.php Yea man my friend in Jersey is at his new home in deleware remodelling the house and I could see snow already on the ground out the window in the background! My mom(south jersey) said its not doing anything there yet but they are now in a blizzard warning for 12-16". When jersey gets a storm they usually get hammered by one along the coast there, Im jelous I will not lie haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted January 23, 2016 Author Share Posted January 23, 2016 Nice fantasy snow at the end of the 12z GFS. I'm so excited. (Sarcasm included). So, is it warming up or not? 00z run showed 50 degrees @ 384. 12z shows 14 degrees. I'll go with somewhere between the two. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted January 23, 2016 Author Share Posted January 23, 2016 I've said this before, but a lot of people who are decent long range forecasters say there is going to be a little warm up and then February is going to be pretty cold. I have no idea if that's true, but I've been reading that the AO is going to go strongly negative again. A met I follow and who is really good about responding to folks' questions and comments has vaguely suggested that when the AO tanks again we still have a shot at some snow. I'm not going to hold my breath, but the guy has been dead on so far. We'll see. Taking the Euro Weeklies with a grain of salt this round though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Well, on one hand, you've got the possible strat warming event. but on the other hand, you've got the MJO going through the warm phases for Feb. (although it's colder down across the deep south) So.... it's confusing as to what will happen from about Mid-Feb through March. So if we were to get anything, it would have to be between mid-Feb and mid-March, although it has snowed later than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Well that's just depressing for early Feb.... Cold air not sync'ed up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Yah that groundhog day storm has been showing up for a few days now, but not good timing for us and lifting too far north. Cosgrove still sounds positive about a return to cold and stormy from mid February thru mid March. I'm still holding out hope. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Cosgrove has been riding the 57-58 analog which featured some good snows in late winter, including a big storm in this 4 states region in march. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 The last 20+ runs of the CFS have all showed a closed 850mb low somewhere in the midwest on or around Feb. 02. The global ensembles GEFS, EPS, and to a lesser degree the GEPS also show troughing leading up to Ground Hog Day. So yeah, I'd say there's at least a moderate signal for some kind of storm during this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Winter's still over for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Winter's still over for the foreseeable future. I'm not shocked to be honest lol. Blowtorch week! Insane stuff I swear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Noticeable change on the 12z Euro today. Northern system coming south bringing cold air with it while a system moves out of the west. Results in 'frozen' across far N OK, most of KS, and the NW 1/2 of Missouri around Feb 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 So our groundhog system may become more of a watcher. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 If you like cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Cold front is definitely here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 So our groundhog system may become more of a watcher. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Yeah, not much support for a farther SE solution on the Ensemble members but that was a pretty big change from last nights run and it is pretty far out still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 GFS is for sure way north with that system. But a long way still for sure. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 GFS is for sure way north with that system. But a long way still for sure. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Yeah the 12z GFS was way north which is what the Euro had last night. 12z GEM and Euro were farther south with the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Cosgrove has been riding the 57-58 analog which featured some good snows in late winter, including a big storm in this 4 states region in march. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk That 57-58 analog is an interesting one (and bear in mind, I say this from my New Jersey perspective since that was my home for the first 47 years of my life). 57-58 is famous on the east coast because it was one of those rare years that had two truly historic storms in one winter. One of those storms (in March 1958) set snowfall records just inland from the big cities that were probably never approached again.... until this past weekend. If Cosgrove is right, maybe the east coast has another historic storm in their future this season, and maybe we can still see some variation on what 57-58 gave the southern plains. My question, as a newcomer, is what happened in 57-58 in these parts? Was the second half of that winter particularly snowy? And, yes, I am grasping at straws. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 That 57-58 analog is an interesting one (and bear in mind, I say this from my New Jersey perspective since that was my home for the first 47 years of my life). 57-58 is famous on the east coast because it was one of those rare years that had two truly historic storms in one winter. One of those storms (in March 1958) set snowfall records just inland from the big cities that were probably never approached again.... until this past weekend. If Cosgrove is right, maybe the east coast has another historic storm in their future this season, and maybe we can still see some variation on what 57-58 gave the southern plains. My question, as a newcomer, is what happened in 57-58 in these parts? Was the second half of that winter particularly snowy? And, yes, I am grasping at straws. LOL. Looking at the Cli-MATE maps for Feb 1st 1958 to April 1st 1958 shows it was 200-300% above normal for our area. I'd have to dig into it more but it was probably a big wound up bowling ball type of system that caused all the snow considering the time of year and it was probably in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Yah at one time I had a good link for Missouri cities and snowfall totals back to 1950. I used to look at it alot. In march of 58 there was a late storm that dumped heavy snow over much of SW MO, and it shows up on the Tulsa weather book as well in the NWS TUL climate section. So must have been fairly widespread. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Here's the daily weather maps archive but it requires a free plugin for the old paper maps. The weekly maps don't begin until 1968, otherwise you have to look at each individual day's map, and no time for that. http://www.lib.noaa.gov/collections/imgdocmaps/daily_weather_maps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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