nrgjeff Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Just updated European monthly charts are also somewhat bullish this sub-region thread. Euro is not as cold as the NMME suite but it did go slightly colder than the previous Euro run. Think first shade of blue on temps for OK/AR with similar precip. Euro shows KS/MO temps closer to normal. Bottom line is both model suites both share a southern storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 8, 2015 Author Share Posted October 8, 2015 Just updated European monthly charts are also somewhat bullish this sub-region thread. Euro is not as cold as the NMME suite but it did go slightly colder than the previous Euro run. Think first shade of blue on temps for OK/AR with similar precip. Euro shows KS/MO temps closer to normal. Bottom line is both model suites both share a southern storm track. Yeah. I think there are going to be quite a few people watching and discussing our little sub-region one way or the other this year. Going to be a lot of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 8, 2015 Author Share Posted October 8, 2015 Oho is looking to help keep the cooler weather away now. So ready for it to cool off. Maybe late month before it finally does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 I wasn't really expecting any colder weather (cooler maybe) until possibly towards the middle/end of the month. That's when ridging is supposed to build up over Alaska and that usually results in a downstream trough and colder air being dislodged southward. But it's hard to tell in these transition seasons what will happen. Weeklies later! JB says the Euro seasonal looks like 86-87. (which was a year of normal to below normal snowfall, unless you were in southern Kansas and you ended up above normal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Weeklies are going with some western US troughing around the last week of October... Appears to be a lot of troughing off the west coast and eventually into the SW as we head into the first week and a half of November. Control run looks interesting with several bouts of cooler/colder air. There's still not a signal for a GoA vortex to set up shop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 9, 2015 Author Share Posted October 9, 2015 Is it just me or are there just a lot of blurry signals this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 I agree. Kinda hard to get excited about anything for me at this point. I could see us having either extreme, or just about normal. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 9, 2015 Author Share Posted October 9, 2015 I agree. Kinda hard to get excited about anything for me at this point. I could see us having either extreme, or just about normal. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A I'm about to just start praying for a 1978 and 2009 hybrid and hope for the best. Sprinkle in a little 2002-03 for good luck. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 I'm about to just start praying for a 1978 and 2009 hybrid and hope for the best. Sprinkle in a little 2002-03 for good luck. LolYes, that would work for me as well.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 There's always conflicting signals in long range forecasting. One thing that it probably won't be is frigid this year. We won't have long periods of really really cold air because you normally don't get that in El Nino years due to the active STJ. This will bring storm systems around/across the area at a more frequent interval. The timing and track of those storm systems will play a huge role in the weather. You don't need it frigid to get snowfall, you just need enough cold air and the system to take the right track south of the area, but not too far south or you get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 True words JoMo. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 9, 2015 Author Share Posted October 9, 2015 I agree also JoMo. I know I just need to chill and wait. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Looks like a pretty nice next couple of weeks. Euro ensembles still have the ridge building up over Alaska by mid-month, which will build a west coast/western US trough sometime after the 20th. We may have a couple frontal passages, and some cooler weather in between but the coldest of the air looks to pass to our east at this time. Kind of boring, but it's also kind of nice because the leaves are changing color and it's feeling more fallish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 The last couple CFS v2 runs look like it cheated off some of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 10, 2015 Author Share Posted October 10, 2015 That's a nice change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 10, 2015 Share Posted October 10, 2015 Yeah, the last few runs have changed things a lot. Now showing a big ridge over W Canada and Alaska for Nov.... On a month by month basis... It has Dec cooler/colder than normal, Jan around normal (cooler west and south) and Feb around normal (cooler in KS/MO) Active storm track across the southern US. It moved the Aleutian low position back farther west so it's looking more like the models that have a farther west Aleutian low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 10, 2015 Author Share Posted October 10, 2015 Yeah, the last few runs have changed things a lot. Now showing a big ridge over W Canada and Alaska for Nov.... On a month by month basis... It has Dec cooler/colder than normal, Jan around normal (cooler west and south) and Feb around normal (cooler in KS/MO) Active storm track across the southern US. It moved the Aleutian low position back farther west so it's looking more like the models that have a farther west Aleutian low. So I guess the running theme at this time is cool all winter but not necessarily overpoweringly cold, lots of precip and hope for the best. I think we can get a 2010 style cold plunge into there somewhere in that pattern so that would be nice too. Edit/add: A lot of snow forecast to build up in western Canada/eastern Alaska is my logic behind that. The less ridge we see over western Canada the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 So I guess the running theme at this time is cool all winter but not necessarily overpoweringly cold, lots of precip and hope for the best. I think we can get a 2010 style cold plunge into there somewhere in that pattern so that would be nice too. Edit/add: A lot of snow forecast to build up in western Canada/eastern Alaska is my logic behind that. The less ridge we see over western Canada the better. CFS has already changed back to warmth, lol Yeah, 'standard nino climo' is basically the only thing you can go with right now. We don't typically see long cold outbreaks during El Nino's because the STJ keeps things active. It's usually cloudy, and alternates between mild and cool. We do get the occasional cold outbreak but it doesn't last very long. It sounds like you're talking about the PNA. We can do well when it comes to winter weather in either a negative or positive PNA, but we probably do better in a positive PNA which features high pressure along the west coast. I'd say the closer to neutral would be best either way. With the positive PNA, you get cold air dumping down the eastern Rockies and points east, and with the negative PNA you get the cold air dumping into the west and a better chance of a SE ridge warming the area east of the Rockies, although sometimes the cold air is still able to spill far enough east for us, and then we end up getting an ice storm. 2009-2010 featured a very very strong -AO. That's why we saw the big cold air outbreaks. Unfortunately, there really isn't a way to forecast the AO long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 11, 2015 Author Share Posted October 11, 2015 Yeah. I'm unfortunately terrible at explaining weather terminology but the PNA was what I was talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 UKMET October wasn't as good as last month. Looks to have pressed everything a bit farther south. Precip: 500 MB: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 UKMET October wasn't as good as last month. Looks to have pressed everything a bit farther south. Precip: 500 MB: The ridge in Canada is stronger and a little further SW which shoves the trough a little further SE, when compared to Sept run. Also, the ENSO regions are warmer, including in 1.2, still looks centered OK though (basin wide). Keeps the GOAK warm, PDO+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Euro Weeklies: Still no signs of a big Gulf Vortex crapping things up through Nov 12th. If there's any signal for persistent storminess in that part of the world as we enter November, it's located NW of Alaska. It looks more active around these parts after Oct 20th or so. At this time, things look pretty progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 13, 2015 Author Share Posted October 13, 2015 That's awesome news. I hadn't checked it yet but it sounds like we are going along exactly like we want to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Jomo, I live in jonesboro AR. I see a big area of warm water sw of alutians. Is that where the alutian low could set up for winter if it persists or no? That will be crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Jomo, I live in jonesboro AR. What you think about the warm pool sw of the alutians? Could the alutian low set up in that area? The Goa has cooled somewhat from persistent troughing as of late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Jomo, I live in jonesboro AR. What you think about the warm pool sw of the alutians? Could the alutian low set up in that area? The Goa has cooled somewhat from persistent troughing as of late The GoA temps look like they will recover as all the models have a +PDO this winter. That, along with the weeklies showing ridging in that area coming up, as well as the really warm water near the Aleutians leads me to believe that the GoA isn't going to flip to frigid anytime soon. I think the warm GoA temps are more due to whatever atmospheric drivers have been driving the anomalous ridge in that area, I'm sure the warmer waters do have a slight feedback though. The Aleutian low kind of depends on where the forcing sets up. Right now, the forcing is out by the dateline and farther west than 1997. Most of the models keep the forcing out west, which should lead to a farther west Aleutian low position, but we'll have to see if they are right. The Pacific looks very similar to last year at this time as far as where the +/- anomalies are, but this year the water is much much warmer. I'm curious what kind of effect that warm water in between the Baja and Hawaii has as we go forward though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Jomo, if the forcing can stay further west, we should be OK. With a strong nino, I won't get too excited just yet. For the nao, it would be nice to see the qbo not get too high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 14, 2015 Author Share Posted October 14, 2015 I'm going to just go with the statement that's been said and proven many times. Warm oceans=cold continents. The oceans are as warm pretty much everywhere as they're going to get. Even if we wind up in a dry spot this winter, we all know that wet winters aren't always the snowiest. I guess I'm getting more and more optimistic by the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 There's no knowing with the NAO/AO from this far out. This guy has some nice maps of the forecasted AO/NAO/PNA taken from the CFS. Looks like predominantly a +PNA and -AO through December. http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/arctic-oscillation/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 14, 2015 Share Posted October 14, 2015 Check out this tweet from Ryan Maue. I wouldn't mind 30" of snowfall this winter. (just for fun) https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/654380304610820096/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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