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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2015-16 Discussion


OKwx2K4

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Anything after hour 108 on the 12z GFS is going to be suspect. That's when all the energy pours into the west and things get confusing as there's multiple streams, and multiple systems interacting. 

 

500mbrelvortconus.png

 

 

With that being said. I like this run.... lol

 

 

acc10_1snowc.png

 

It will more than likely change.......

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12z GEM also has a couple systems around the same time(s). A system around next weekend, and then a couple of days after that. So it looks like it could be active, just not sure where.

 

-6 in Minnesota currently for the Vikings game. That sounds painful.

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Yikes. I guess the Vikings play outdoors now? I haven't paid much attention to them.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

 

Yes, until their new stadium is finished in July, they are playing at the Univ of Minnesota stadium which is outside.

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12z Euro has a storm of interest Fri/Sat as well. But it's upper air is messy and needs sorted out still. Looks similar to the system that just went through though.

 

It's going to bring the Arctic down this run after the weekend. And then next Mon/Tues there's another system, this one looks to be down in Texas like the GFS was this run.

 

So, plenty to watch.

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12z Euro has a storm of interest Fri/Sat as well. But it's upper air is messy and needs sorted out still. Looks similar to the system that just went through though.

It's going to bring the Arctic down this run after the weekend. And then next Mon/Tues there's another system, this one looks to be down in Texas like the GFS was this run.

So, plenty to watch.

Really don't think that storm in TX will verify that far south. As you said, the models will be all over the place.

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Anything after hour 108 on the 12z GFS is going to be suspect. That's when all the energy pours into the west and things get confusing as there's multiple streams, and multiple systems interacting. 

 

500mbrelvortconus.png

 

 

With that being said. I like this run.... lol

 

 

acc10_1snowc.png

 

It will more than likely change.......

 

Wow ! I really like that run as it has the 8" snow area right over me place...if only this would hold out . :snowman:

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It's quite a mess for the models to sort out. They are all out of sync with each other, and differ quite a bit from run to run. Expected when you have split flow and a lot of energy though. The Euro control and ensemble is deeply out of sync when it comes to the end of the 15 days. The individual ensemble members differ quite a bit when it comes to frozen precip as well. The issue right now is the northern stream being a bully and crushing anything coming underneath. The timing just isn't right, and it's hard for the models to time two different streams full of energy and their interaction with each other. 

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