OKwx2K4 Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 Nothing really to worry about in the Weeklies tonight. Possible west coast trough developing towards the end of October maybe.What do you think the chances are of the low making it all the way out over the Aleutians this year?Also does anyone have any thoughts on the Canadian model? Saw it on WxBell today. I don't even know if the words 'ridiculously amazing' get anywhere near close to describing it. It's showing wall-to-wall winter with our "warmest" month being January at near average. Of course if the other models trend west in November, one would assume they would all be similar, right? Interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 What do you think the chances are of the low making it all the way out over the Aleutians this year? Also does anyone have any thoughts on the Canadian model? Saw it on WxBell today. I don't even know if the words 'ridiculously amazing' get anywhere near close to describing it. It's showing wall-to-wall winter with our "warmest" month being January at near average. Of course if the other models trend west in November, one would assume they would all be similar, right? Interesting to say the least. Not sure on where it's going to be positioned, it might not be that far west, but not too far east, kind of in between, maybe? Can't really tell at this point, just that it's far enough west in October to not worry about at this point. As far as the CanSIPS, I have no idea but I do know that it's September forecast looked great, although was probably too cold. You can check it out under the "Climate -> CanSIPS"" section here: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted September 30, 2015 Author Share Posted September 30, 2015 Not sure on where it's going to be positioned, it might not be that far west, but not too far east, kind of in between, maybe? Can't really tell at this point, just that it's far enough west in October to not worry about at this point. As far as the CanSIPS, I have no idea but I do know that it's September forecast looked great, although was probably too cold. You can check it out under the "Climate -> CanSIPS"" section here: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Yeah. It was CanSIPS that I saw. It looked insane. I think if there was a way to blend everything but the CFSv2 together and generate a seasonal model out of it, we would be looking pretty darn good right now. Better than any recent years I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Speaking of CanSIPS, it just updated for October tonight. Dec looks to be around normal temp wise and we're back to above/much above normal precip. January looks to be normal to above normal and around normal precip. Feb looks frigid with much below normal temps and below normal precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 1, 2015 Author Share Posted October 1, 2015 Saw the new ones this morning just before looking on here. Lol. Definitely not as cold overall as last month's but still ok. The storminess signal there is pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Let's see what we got on the weeklies today..... Troughing in the Aleutian low area through mid-month, by the latter part of the month (20th onward), still looks like troughing in the western US develops and may head east as we start Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 2, 2015 Author Share Posted October 2, 2015 Yeah, I just checked them out. Things are just cycling out I think. Think the ridge will probably pop back up over western Canada/AK as we start November and then look out below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 The Nino continues to be on fire. This is a basin-wide event. If this continues, the NASA model which looked insane, may end up being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 So what would that do for us? Another 97-98 nino? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 So what would that do for us? Another 97-98 nino? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A Still depends on where the Aleutian low sets up, which is usually a result of where the best forcing is. The farther west the forcing sets up, the farther west the Aleutian low will more than likely set up. If this was an east based El-Nino, with east based forcing, then it would be like 1997-1998, but there are near record temps in El Nino 4 (western el nino regions) and the forcing is already somewhat farther west than 1997-1998 at this time, with most of the models pointing towards the forcing being west in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Ok thxs. So the further west scenario could help us out. 97-98 was horrible. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Ok thxs. So the further west scenario could help us out. 97-98 was horrible. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A The farther west the Aleutian low is, the less of a chance we will 'blowtorch'. If the low ends up in the Gulf of Alaska, the greater chance we will 'blowtorch'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 SST CA Updated: Compared to last month, the Aleutian low area may have moved a small bit south. The lower heights over the southern US expanded a bit to the west and a tiny bit more to the north. Temps remained virtually unchanged from last month, maybe just a very tiny bump west with the coolest temps: Precip is virtually unchanged as well, perhaps just a tiny bump south: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 4, 2015 Author Share Posted October 4, 2015 SST CA Updated: Compared to last month, the Aleutian low area may have moved a small bit south. The lower heights over the southern US expanded a bit to the west and a tiny bit more to the north. Temps remained virtually unchanged from last month, maybe just a very tiny bump west with the coolest temps: Precip is virtually unchanged as well, perhaps just a tiny bump south: Perfect! Thanks! 1 month to go til the last run of the 'preseason'. I see nothing I disagree with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 5, 2015 Author Share Posted October 5, 2015 If the longer range aspects of the models are to be believed at this point in time, we will look almost week for week like October 2002 on the pattern as a whole. Not a bad sign at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Yeah, if you check out the Euro ensembles from last night and even the GFS.... They point to what should be a big cool down by the end of the month. That familiar ridge in the GoA into Alaska showing up...Assuming they are both right since the SOI spiked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 5, 2015 Author Share Posted October 5, 2015 Yeah, if you check out the Euro ensembles from last night and even the GFS.... They point to what should be a big cool down by the end of the month. That familiar ridge in the GoA into Alaska showing up...Assuming they are both right since the SOI spiked. Yeah. That's a pretty nice trough. :-) Maybe just one more, although weaker, death ridge to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Let's see what we got going with the Euro weeklies today...... Still expecting the ridge to build into Alaska as per the Euro ensembles by mid-month. Looks like we start getting some troughing going on across the western US during the last week of October. The lower heights start to back off back into the GoA and Alaska as we head into the first week of November. The control suggests we start getting more active as we head into the last week or so of October and then into Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 6, 2015 Author Share Posted October 6, 2015 Let's see what we got going with the Euro weeklies today...... Still expecting the ridge to build into Alaska as per the Euro ensembles by mid-month. Looks like we start getting some troughing going on across the western US during the last week of October. The lower heights start to back off back into the GoA and Alaska as we head into the first week of November. The control suggests we start getting more active as we head into the last week or so of October and then into Nov. Sounds really good. I'd like to see the east side of the ridging out west sitting barely on the coast by winter. I think if we get that, we get all three months of solid winter and a very favorable area of the storm track this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 6, 2015 Author Share Posted October 6, 2015 Mid 80s again by Columbus day. I wish I could just skip til the end of November. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 7, 2015 Author Share Posted October 7, 2015 If the Euro and Canadian are right going through mid month, after the warmup we still have to go through in the next few days, it will look like we just skipped right to late fall. Perfectly fine with me. Keeps pulling the Aleutian low farther and farther back as well. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Yeah, the Euro has a much stronger ridge look up over Alaska in the longer range which should result in colder weather by the end of the month assuming it's correct and everything comes together right. Using Ye olde weather indicators, we have conflicting information: Squirrels going crazy burying nuts (cold), persimmon seed I cracked into had a forked look (mild). So let's just split the difference and call it mild and snowy, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Accuweather forecast: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-winter-forecast-2015-2016-mild-northeast-california-rain/52732989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 7, 2015 Author Share Posted October 7, 2015 Accuweather forecast: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/us-winter-forecast-2015-2016-mild-northeast-california-rain/52732989 Lol. They should just change their name to something with 'almanac' in it. Lol. On the conflicting signals, I just saw an all brown wooly worm but my persimmons all had spoons. Squirrels down here are just kinda in the middle. I'd take normal with above average snow. :-) I just have the feeling that we're going to see something awesome this year for some reason. I don't know why but I guess my hopes are finally up. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 That's the stupidest winter outlook I have ever seen. Lmao It's going to snow in the Rockies? Wow..shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 It really is kind of ambiguous. It's another way of showing what will be 'standard nino climo' as that's what their outlook basically is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 8, 2015 Author Share Posted October 8, 2015 Euro looking colder every run for mid month. If only it wasn't 10 days away. I like the trend though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted October 8, 2015 Author Share Posted October 8, 2015 Wow at the new nasa update. Has progressively colder relative to average from November on with -4 degrees showing up over eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and a pretty good chunk of southern Missouri in DJF. I like it. Maybe we get all three months of winter this year. Or 4 but I won't be greedy. Lol. Anything new out of the JMA? I think it was supposed to update around now right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 The NMME suite which includes the NASA and other models does look like it has updated. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/ December looks cooler than normal with above average precip on the majority of models. January cooler than normal with probably below normal precip. Feb cooler than normal with below normal precip. I think the Euro seasonal updates tomorrow? JMA probably won't update until next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 IRI plume updated. Strengthened the Nino again. Looks like a 2.5 on the dynamic models and a 2.2 on the statistical models, so around a 2.4 average. If the average holds up, this will be the strongest El-Nino since the modern 1950 era. The others being 1997-1998 (2.3) and 1982-1983 (2.1) and 1972-1973 (2). http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ As a reminder, accumulated snowfall was way below average in 97-98, way below average in 82-83, and average to above average in 1972-1973. Euro seasonal didn't change much from what I've been reading. Aleutian low position gets better as time goes on and the southern US stays active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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