OKwx2K4 Posted December 29, 2015 Author Share Posted December 29, 2015 Looks like another warm up coming to me by the weekend, close to 50 again lol. Too far out on models to trust anything at this point and the way things have been, just one big storm! Just one is all we need, last season was crap at just average. You guys buy into the 150 to 300 percent above normal snowfall mets and long range forecasters were thinking lol? I don't think 150-300 percent is off the table yet. In this pattern we are transitioning to, you and I can end up with 100 percent of avg with just 1 storm if everything goes right. My hopes are still pretty high. I'm pressing the panic button January 20th though. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I don't think 150-300 percent is off the table yet. In this pattern we are transitioning to, you and I can end up with 100 percent of avg with just 1 storm if everything goes right. My hopes are still pretty high. I'm pressing the panic button January 20th though. Lol. Yea once we hit that second week of feb. stuff doesn't stick around long at all. I have seen some fairly monster march storms but those kind never stick around for more than a few days at best and is always slop snow lol. I actually like the fluffy powdery snow, because its easier to shovel and adds up faster. I just want one big giant snowstorm that snows fairly heavy for a nice amount of time and is cold out. Some thunder with it would be cool too, wishful thinking probly lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Yea once we hit that second week of feb. stuff doesn't stick around long at all. I have seen some fairly monster march storms but those kind never stick around for more than a few days at best and is always slop snow lol. I actually like the fluffy powdery snow, because its easier to shovel and adds up faster. I just want one big giant snowstorm that snows fairly heavy for a nice amount of time and is cold out. Some thunder with it would be cool too, wishful thinking probly lol. Yeah. You pretty much think the same way I do. Lol. Given the analog options I have seen though, I think if we get pretty cold, we'll stay pretty cold until it's over. When the Arctic is totally rearranged as fast as its going to be, you're displacing a whole lot of air in a hurry that doesn't get to modify that much. Just my opinion. Whether it verifies or not is a whole other thing also. Fear I have is that we get the storm track suppressed to Texas and we just get useless cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 10 day snooze fest coming up I guess? Starting to worry a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 10 day snooze fest coming up I guess? Starting to worry a little.Me, too. Don Sutherland mentioned some of the things that can go wrong in January in his post today in the medium term discussion thread. CFS January looks warm. He mentions 1983 too much for my liking. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I thought your were giving it until the 20th before you start worrying OKwx2K4? Most mets have been saying that the next system isn't in the works for 10-12 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 12z Euro control had snow, as did a lot of the ensemble members within the next 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 Me, too. Don Sutherland mentioned some of the things that can go wrong in January in his post today in the medium term discussion thread. CFS January looks warm. He mentions 1983 too much for my liking. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A That was one of the things that had me worried. Only notable thing about January 1984 or the winter around here was that huge cold air outbreak that he mentioned. I guess the only cool thing about that outbreak is that it is part of the reason I was born in mid-October that year. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 15 days....I will believe that when I see it jomo lol. Not being rude, I just have doubts this season. Ya'll ready for another warmup? haha looks like one will be coming again, at least for here anyhow. Just insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 New JMA weekly looked pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Long range GFS looking much better today as well. Lots of potential. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 From a post is the SE forum it sounds like the 12z Euro looked good for many of us from Northern Arkansas to Maine. Hopefully JoMo can shed more light. Happy New Year!!! Let's get 2016 off to a great white start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 From a post is the SE forum it sounds like the 12z Euro looked good for many of us from Northern Arkansas to Maine. Hopefully JoMo can shed more light. Happy New Year!!! Let's get 2016 off to a great white start. The 00z Euro control did. The 12z Euro was farther north across Iowa. 12z Euro ensembles have a wide wide variety of solutions for snowfall ranging from south of us, to over us, to north of us. -SOI spike and pattern shakeup will lead to the models changing a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 What is the time frame on that event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 What is the time frame on that event? About 10-15 days out. Depends on if all the energy comes out at once or if it comes out in pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 The Euro ensembles are all over the place. Lol. It's pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Euro Weeklies: Going out to Jan 31st. Troughing with the system moving across the south around the 10th-15th of Jan, Might be a temporary break, and then more troughing as the west gets more active again and there looks like ridging in the eastern US again. Looks to be pretty active, probably getting less active as we return to a more Decemberlike pattern in late Jan. Although this might end up not being as far west, so we may still be able to get in on something. +PNA that goes to neutral. -AO that goes to a +AO pretty quickly. +EPO will come back as well. So we'll see what happens from basically Jan 10th through the 28th or so. Temps go below normal during the busiest time before gradually warming up as everything shifts to the west again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 CanSIPS updated. Still looks good for Feb/March. It has the expected El Nino pattern of the southern stream, Aleutian low position, etc... Nice snow on the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Nice.. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted January 1, 2016 Author Share Posted January 1, 2016 CanSIPS updated. Still looks good for Feb/March. It has the expected El Nino pattern of the southern stream, Aleutian low position, etc... Nice snow on the 00z GFS. Pretty nice one there. That's a pretty sweet 1049 H following that thing also. Brrrrr. I hope everyone has a Happy New Year and we get a January and February full of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Happy New Year everyone!!! Heres to hoping for some soon or I am gonna go nuts lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 12z GFS went south, with a lack of cold air. 12z GEM went farther north. Big run to run changes but still signs of a storm between the 10th and 15th probably. Based on the Euro Weeklies and the new Euro parallel run, there might be a brief break or warmup in the pattern around the end of Jan into early Feb but it looks to resume the active El Nino look across the southern US. Cohen's model gives this for J-M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I still like where we're headed down the road. At least we look to be in the game with a chance for something big. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 12z Euro would have some snow or something with an Arctic front. Models gonna flip flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I for one am enjoying a little sunshine after all that awful rain we received last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 I for one am enjoying a little sunshine after all that awful rain we received last weekend. Yea after 10 inches of rain. Im ready for some dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Poor GFS is having issues. It's like a lost puppy. Nice snowstorm on the GEM. Can't wait to see what randomness the Euro throws out there! 12z Euro = Brrr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 JoMo, what hour does the GEM have the snow? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Cosgrove with an interesting long range disco today. https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/weatheramerica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 MoWeatherguy... The 12z had snow at 180. Around 0z Sunday. Drops ~6 area wide. The most would fall in central Oklahoma into se ks. The 0z was warmer but had snow in southern ks, north of i44 in Mo and in central Oklahoma. It drops 3-6+ in this area. Starting at 168-174. Around 0z next Sunday as well. Cold air does filter in slowly and snow comes further south as the storm progresses, where it drops up to 3. You can find the maps on tropical tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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