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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2015-16 Discussion


OKwx2K4

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Temp is 31 F with, perhaps, a half inch of sleet on the ground here. We are in a lull at the moment with just some light ice crystals falling. It looks like we have some intermittent heavier showers incoming for the rest of the day and (hopefully) the upper low passing through late tonight into tomorrow. Roads are sleet covered but passable if you take it easy.

EDIT: I just looked at the regional radar and, for you folks in NW Arkansas and SW Missouri, wow! It looks like it is STILL raining heavily with, at minimum, several more hours of rain to go at these same rates. I know some of the models were spitting out 10"+ qpfs but I bet you guys are approaching that now with plenty more to go! Yikes.

Yea tulsa sounded like we would get a break this afternoon then 2-3" more of rain tonight into tomorrow late morning! I have no idea on totals but its a ton, there is some pretty major flooding throughout fayetteville here. It's still coming down very heavily.

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Kansas City here.

I posted this in the Lakes/Ohio Valley thread. Hope you don't slip on the sleet.

 

The 18z NAM precip-type algorithm has an unbelievable 1.75" of QPF of sleet (3.5" of sleet?) from Kansas City going up towards Cedar Rapids IA (narrowly missing Des Moines?). Something to think about for anyone reading this in Iowa or Missouri.

 

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=nc&model=nam&run=18&fhr=29&field=acctype

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Both the 00z NAM and 00z Euro have corrected a bit east with the system. I would not be surprised to see more of a mix farther east all the way into W MO and maybe NE OK. NW AR might have a shot at a mix as well as the system departs tomorrow.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if it snowed under the cold core of the low, either. 00z Euro temps at 700 MB are generally warm except under the core of the low, which is set to move across our immediate area late tomorrow morning. 

 

This has been quite the storm either way. I can still hear the winds howling.

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Both the 00z NAM and 00z Euro have corrected a bit east with the system. I would not be surprised to see more of a mix farther east all the way into W MO and maybe NE OK. NW AR might have a shot at a mix as well as the system departs tomorrow.

I wouldn't be surprised if it snowed under the cold core of the low, either. 00z Euro temps at 700 MB are generally warm except under the core of the low, which is set to move across our immediate area late tomorrow morning.

This has been quite the storm either way. I can still hear the winds howling.

Been very impressive indeed. 10.75 inches of rain so far for me. Illinois river near Watts bridge is forecast to break it's all time flood record within the next hour or 2. It was .3 feet behind last time I checked. Crazy stuff.

Edit: Stage updated while I was writing. Now .08 feet from the all-time record.

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The low is taking an interesting track for Tulsa. Surprise heavy sleet that's already made roads a mess. Should transition to snow soon. Radar trends are our friend, it appears.

Yeah, somewhere along the way, OKC ended up in the screw zone. Not a flake has fallen here and the upper low is now gone and headed your way. We had a bit of sleet yesterday morning and about five minutes more of sleet earlier this morning with nothing but freezing drizzle in between.

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Now that TSA is on board, we need SGF to follow suit. I know this isn't going to be a blockbuster storm, but it would be a nice way to end this long duration ordeal. Low does look to be a bit further east than forecast expected. 

 

Edit: NWS SGF has issued a WWA for areas along and west of an Anderson to Osceola line. 

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