OKwx2K4 Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Tulsa NWS starting to pay attention to the wintry component of this storm finally. I think they held on to the western solutions (Euro) as long as they could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 NWS Tulsa update says 00z WRF has H5 position even further north and west of the Euro which is the furthest NW. I'm on my phone and can't post the full write up. Only 3-4 sentences. DISCUSSION... Forecast on target with a silent weather night. Minimal tweaks. Of note:new 00Z WRF 12z Monday position of H5 low west and north of 12z ECMWF position... which was farthest north of major numerical models. It all hinges on the track. Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Merry Christmas! 00z Euro stuck to it's farther west track, maybe a tad faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Well no matter what from this system... On the cold side somewhere will receive 16+ inches of snow, and on the warm side somewhere will receive 10+ inches of rain. Quite a strong and dynamic system with an anomalous amount of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 GFS moving things back to the West again. What a mess to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I'd go with the farther west Euro solution at this point. It's been pretty good. In addition to this storm, there's probably going to be a chance of some flurries or freezing drizzle for someone on Wed maybe. The Euro strat maps show more PV disturbance in the 10 day timeframe in relation to the warming event that may nudge it to the east. Jan 1958 saw something similar. The Euro EPS has totally caved to the GEFS long range. Assuming it stays that way, looks like an incoming -AO, -EPO, split flow pattern with another expected -SOI spike to throw things into confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Ugh...Tulsa is once again in the screw zone.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Merry Christmas everyone, this is going to be another washout of a storm wow! Maybe some mix on monday night right at the very end of this as it pulls away lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 As the GFS caves to the King. Lots of snow out west though should mean more cold air will be available. Now we just need a storm before mid-Jan. I do think there will be another big one in mid-Jan and probably late Jan. No idea where it will track or be though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yep close the books on this one. Washout coming up this weekend. Merry Christmas everyone! Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 As the GFS caves to the King. Lots of snow out west though should mean more cold air will be available. Now we just need a storm before mid-Jan. I do think there will be another big one in mid-Jan and probably late Jan. No idea where it will track or be though. Man, even the "new" GFS solution gets that heavier snow right to my door step. If it could just trend east a few miles. Still hoping for a (two-day after) Xmas miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 GFS moving things back to the west and coming into line with the Euro...what a mess and a disappointment. Thought we'd have some snow for my girls on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 As the GFS caves to the King. Lots of snow out west though should mean more cold air will be available. Now we just need a storm before mid-Jan. I do think there will be another big one in mid-Jan and probably late Jan. No idea where it will track or be though. Yes sir...big disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Merry Christmas everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Canadian just caved to the euro as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I always kind of expected this to wind up farther west, although it's a bit farther east than I expected. So I'm not totally disappointed. Plus I'm pretty excited by the long range for like the first time this year. Much better looking from mid-Jan on, and maybe sooner if the models are trying to catch up. The MJO looks like it's going to make it to at least 7 (NCEP), the Euro says 8. 7 and 8 are good for our area. (we don't want 1 in this area so hopefully it slows down or dies out) Phase 7 January actually features the higher heights at the pole. The EPS and GEFS look pretty similar. The Euro actually has more of a troughing signal across the SW to eastern TX. The both have the Aleutian low backed off from the GOA, and the -EPO look. Phase 8 is a cold phase here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Canadian just caved to the euro as well Canada, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Frustrating. Seems this happens often. Complete last-minute changes. Definitely on edge where I am for Christmas now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Pretty much every major player flips in the first week of January. May only have 8 weeks left of winter but it should be a fun 8 weeks. Pretty sure the AO is going negative. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Said this days ago... The Euro always wins. I realized this with Hurricane Joaquin when all the "hurricane" models and GFS and CMC/GEM had the track into the Carolinas, but the Euro had the track going to Bermuda and it was the only model that had that, and it ended up being right. As well as numerous other occasions, but that one sticks the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Said this days ago... The Euro always wins. I realized this with Hurricane Joaquin when all the "hurricane" models and GFS and CMC/GEM had the track into the Carolinas, but the Euro had the track going to Bermuda and it was the only model that had that, and it ended up being right. As well as numerous other occasions, but that one sticks the most. Yeah, once you get inside 5 days, the Euro skill is usually much greater than the other models. The 30 day running average of 5 day skill actually has the Canadian better than the GFS with the Euro having a huge lead. The new parallel (upgrade) Euro is actually a bit better than the Euro operational even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 12z Euro 'snow' map (which is actually just showing precip falling in 32 degree temps) shifted a bit more west this run and increased amounts. Still has a really weak system on Wed that may deliver some additional flurries or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The Table Rock Lake basin in southwest MO and northwest AR is forecasted to get one major thumpin'. Not very wintery... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 18Z 12NAM basically in line with the 12Z Euro from what I can tell. At least as far as SFC-low position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 One thing to watch here is the depth of the cold air. If it is deeper than currently modeled, there will be a major ice storm for southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. As its modeled now, the Flint Hills (along the Kansas Turnpike) of southeast Kansas into northern Oklahoma stands the chance of a crippling ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 One thing to watch here is the depth of the cold air. If it is deeper than currently modeled, there will be a major ice storm for southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. As its modeled now, the Flint Hills (along the Kansas Turnpike) of southeast Kansas into northern Oklahoma stands the chance of a crippling ice storm. Indeed, not sure how useful/accurate this is but this is a forecast ice accumulation map from the 18Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Selfishly I would like the NW trend to continue into NE Colorado since I'm here for Christmas. Unfortunately I think that's way too far of a move to the NW but the last 24 hours have been a fairly significant shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Does anybody know who makes these snowfall forecast maps--as well as where to access them if possible? Like the one DDC put out on their Weather Story? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 18Z GFS generally the same as 12Z. Both ICT/DDC expanded their WSW's northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Does anybody know who makes these snowfall forecast maps--as well as where to access them if possible? Like the one DDC put out on their Weather Story? I am assuming that this comes directly from the NDFD forecast snow amounts. As of recently, this has been available for free on Weatherbell.com-- quite helpful if you don't want to check the point&click forecast snow amount for lots of points in the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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