JoMo Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 12z GEM looks similar to last nights run. Bit o snow up I-44 extending a bit into NW AR. Would look a lot like the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 12z GEM looks similar to last nights run. Bit o snow up I-44 extending a bit into NW AR. Would look a lot like the 12z GFS. Looked like extreme tip county of Nw arkansas right? I think I looked at it right. I know it wasnt far on that one map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 WPC thinks the 12Z GFS is taking the low too far south and are still liking the Euro per some internal chatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 WPC thinks the 12Z GFS is taking the low too far south and are still liking the Euro per some internal chatter. It probably is digging stuff too much over the SW as it always does I think the euro is going to cave to the GFS on this event I never trust it with systems that strongly dig in the SW part of the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Assuming the 12Z GFS 500 low track verified to a T OKC and most of NRN and CNTRL OK would be way snowier than those maps suggest. That low track is perfect, usually OKC wants to see it go over roughly DFW and then hook NE a bit near TXK It's really underestimating precip/QPF for anything north of the red river on the NW side of the low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 WPC thinks the 12Z GFS is taking the low too far south and are still liking the Euro per some internal chatter. Yeah... 12Z GFS has the sfc-low over western Tennessee at 7pm Monday... That won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Limited for time, but I did look at the 12z Euro and it did shift east a fair bit. Still the farthest west of the big 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Crazy, thats where I grew up lol. My mom said its rainy there and supposed to be 74 today in Millville(my hometown). What a small worldFellow South Jersey transplant here, born and spent the first 47 years if my life in Cherry Hill. This year.... along with 2009 (I think).... are the only two times I am very happy to be here for Xmas rather than up there (from a weather perspective, that is). This is looking better and better for all of us. Merry Xmas to all. EDIT: NWS Norman just put up a graphic (not an official forecast, mind you) showing potential for 8"+ of snow in western and northwestern OK and a band of potentially 4" to 8" generally running north to south through the central part of the state including OKC. They also updated the forecast to include potential for ice in the OKC area starting as early as Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 What's the euro showing for snow in okc and Tulsa? Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 What's the euro showing for snow in okc and Tulsa? Sent from my SM-N920V The Euro has maybe 3" around OKC, less than an inch for Tulsa. West from OKC, most of OK is 3-6", 6" begins around the TX border, and the OK panhandle. Also a thin 6"+ area in central KS, west of Wichita and KC. Heaviest snow by far is in the TX Panhandle south from Amarillo, down to almost El Paso over to SE NM. Most in that area are 12"+. Some light snow gets into the Hill Country, and maybe western parts of the DFW metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 I doubt it is finished shifting east. Still won't make it to where I'd like it but we'll see where it goes in another 48 hours. There's a good covering of snow being laid down in some states to our North that will have an effect on model temps in this time frame as well in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Looks NWS Lubbock has gotten the ball rolling with winter storm watches. With the holiday, I suspect that Amarillo and OKC might follow pretty quickly just to get the word out sooner rather than later. They can always back off if this trends in the other direction, but a lot of people are making travel decisions as we speak so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travisstorma Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 OUN has their counties in a winter storm watch now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 The 18z and 12z gfs look fairly similar in terms of the track that the low takes but the 18z doesn't appear to have as much could air. Still a great storm for central Oklahoma and points southwest, however southern Missouri and northwest Arkansas miss the snow this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 If only this had more cold air to work with.. Another 2-3 weeks from now and it would be great. The Euro ensembles still have a lot of members that are a bit farther east so it could come around to the GFS solution. I think someone immediately to the NW of where the upper low tracks will find themselves with a heavy snow burst despite marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 OUN has their counties in a winter storm watch now. I am glad they did. I am usually one who complains when NWS acts too soon or "over-forecasts" bad weather, but this is definitely a case where it is a smart risk. Too many people are: a. Traveling long distances by car; and b. Won't be paying as close attention to the news and weather as they normally would over the next few days. Best to get the word out early and often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Euro Weeklies: Goes out to Jan 24th. Looks like a +AO with a +PNA that goes closer to neutral over time. With time the persistent troughing over the SW moves out into the southern Plains. This looks to happen around mid-month and remains that way through the end of the run. Pretty good split flow signal with the ridging over Canada. So after the big storm and cooldown, it might be somewhat less active for our area until mid-month when it looks to pick up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Euro Weeklies: Goes out to Jan 24th. Looks like a +AO with a +PNA that goes closer to neutral over time. With time the persistent troughing over the SW moves out into the southern Plains. This looks to happen around mid-month and remains that way through the end of the run. Pretty good split flow signal with the ridging over Canada. So after the big storm and cooldown, it might be somewhat less active for our area until mid-month when it looks to pick up again. There's no -AO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 There's no -AO? Doesn't look like it. It's less positive and perhaps may dip negative but as far as a sustained -AO, the Euro doesn't think so. The control is especially stormy over the pole. Temps look to average about normal after the big cooldown. The coldest air still centered over the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 Doesn't look like it. It's less positive and perhaps may dip negative but as far as a sustained -AO, the Euro doesn't think so. The control is especially stormy over the pole. Temps look to average about normal after the big cooldown. The coldest air still centered over the west. It may be a bit off base on that because there's the beginnings of a pretty impressive stratospheric warming going on at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I dunno, appears to be warming a bit more at 10 hpa. Than lower Guess we'll see if it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 I dunno, appears to be warming a bit more at 10 hpa. Than lower Guess we'll see if it continues. Yeah. I see what you're saying. You could be right. It may not split the vortex but it sure is giving it heck trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 00z GFS turned on the afterburners tonight and sped it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 00z GFS turned on the afterburners tonight and sped it up. And looks like some ice for OKC before the snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 00z GFS turned on the afterburners tonight and sped it up. Pretty stupid question but why is pivotal weather's GFS so different than Tidbits? Shows me on the edge of the 6" Blob in NE OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 tidbits counts all frozen precip as snow..including sleet Euro and Euro Parallel and navy vs all other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 NWS Tulsa update says 00z WRF has H5 position even further north and west of the Euro which is the furthest NW. I'm on my phone and can't post the full write up. Only 3-4 sentences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 NWS Tulsa update says 00z WRF has H5 position even further north and west of the Euro which is the furthest NW. I'm on my phone and can't post the full write up. Only 3-4 sentences. If that's a reference to the 00Z NAM in essence it always has an amped NW bias at the end of its runs. It is insanely slow and amped at 84 the low is by SPS roughly and headed into OK. That's about exactly where I would expect it at 84 hours based on the GFS AND euro ensembles it will inevitable speed up and be more southeast by tomorrow's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 00z GEM sticking to it's guns, although a bit faster than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 tidbits counts all frozen precip as snow..including sleet Euro and Euro Parallel and navy vs all other models That's odd because pivotal has me with more frozen than Tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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