jm1220 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The GFS goes "too far" sometimes at this range (read "cold GFS bias" in the Northeast threads). If the Euro is more steadfast I'd stick with that. If the GFS sticks with this and the Euro follows later, it might be worth considering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The 22/18z and 23/00z GFS would bring substantial snows into the KC area. I know that.. But I'm temporarily giving up on/throwing out anything apocalyptic--like the GFS-- east of I-135 for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I know that.. But I'm temporarily giving up on/throwing out anything apocalyptic--like the GFS-- east of I-135 for now Fair enough. Given the teases the I-135 corridor has had so far this winter...its the course of least regret. I'm with JoMo, let's see if the eastward trend sticks and if the Euro catches up to it. We should start to see the energy get better sampled in the next 24-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Fair enough. Given the teases the I-135 corridor has had so far this winter...its the course of least regret. I'm with JoMo, let's see if the eastward trend sticks and if the Euro catches up to it. We should start to see the energy get better sampled in the next 24-36 hours. I agree with this. Can't take the further south and east scenario off the table yet. Storm is still way up by AK. Long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Like I said earlier, one of these massive storms is going to be the key for us this season. Just have to get the right track and be cold enough, man someone is going to be dumped on by this thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z GFS isn't giving up (yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Getting closer and closer. Waiting on the Euro now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Cmon, looks like we need a east southeast push? I still cannot believe this warmth, never ever seen it this warm this time of year what craziness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Cmon, looks like we need a east southeast push? I still cannot believe this warmth, never ever seen it this warm this time of year what craziness! It's right on our doorstep. We just need to SE shift trend to continue for another 75-100 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z GFS isn't giving up (yet) You look at the trend it's be ticking south and east each of the runs and...just compare the 0z versus the 12z GEFS and it's a big change for 12 hours. Still would want EPS on my side though I haven't even looked at 0z runs yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z GEM would have a mix/some snow as the system departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z GFS isn't giving up (yet) ] Let me preface this by stating this is purely the weenie in me talking rather than the scientist, but, since the models typically under-estimate the strength of the cold push, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect the southeast trend to continue a bit more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Let me preface this by stating this is purely the weenie in me talking rather than the scientist, but, since the models typically under-estimate the strength of the cold push, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect the southeast trend to continue a bit more?This really all depends on the track and strength of the upper level system and the SE ridge. A weaker upper level system would dig less and provide less resistance to the ridge, so it would probably track more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Let me preface this by stating this is purely the weenie in me talking rather than the scientist, but, since the models typically under-estimate the strength of the cold push, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect the southeast trend to continue a bit more? And a key thing to recognize here, is that while the models are printing some big numbers for SW MO, NE OK...that could be more sleet or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z Euro is faster and did shift to the east a bit, but still too warm for here. Stays about 36 at Joplin with rain. Upper 30's in NW AR with rain. KC area flirts with freezing at times so it may get messy. TX PH, West TX, Western OK, Central KS, into far NW MO would be the snow area this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z Euro is faster and did shift to the east a bit, but still too warm for here. Stays about 36 at Joplin with rain. Upper 30's in NW AR with rain. KC area flirts with freezing at times so it may get messy. TX PH, West TX, Western OK, Central KS, into far NW MO would be the snow area this run. Agreed. Looks like the ECMWF the big snows literally about 20 miles west of Oklahoma City this run. The model itself has 850 MB temps over OKC/OUN at 2C with surface temps at 34-35. It did the same thing back with the Thanksgiving storm and we all know how that turned out (ice storm). Potential for a major winter storm/blizzard for OKC is increasing IMO. While still out there the 12Z NAM did get into Saturday evening and has the freezing line over West Texas about 4 counties south of where the GFS has it at the same time. I'm curious to see if we'll see any long lead-time Blizzard/Winter Storm Watches issued this afternoon/evening considering most stores will be closed on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Yeah, with this latest info, may be staying in Abilene with my wife's family instead of going to Kansas after Christmas to see mine. I think the party's off on Sunday anyway now. It's looking like a done deal that travel will be very difficult at least. Nice to see a strong winter storm finally, but for pete's sake, why does it have to come at holiday time just like the Thanksgiving ice event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Yeah, with this latest info, may be staying in Abilene with my wife's family instead of going to Kansas after Christmas to see mine. I think the party's off on Sunday anyway now. It's looking like a done deal that travel will be very difficult at least. Nice to see a strong winter storm finally, but for pete's sake, why does it have to come at holiday time just like the Thanksgiving ice event? If current trends continue I would agree Abilene is probably going to get to have winter weather fun based on the current projections. Easily the most significant winter storm Texas has dealt with since the late February 2013 blizzard. Don't you just love El Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Lol. Yeah, I love snow, so I am excited with the trend since it means assuming no changes I will see a white post-Christmas without having to go to KS to see it. No way am I going to travel in this after trying two years ago and nearly having to stop at a hotel north of Wichita. It's just not worth it to be out in a blizzard. Rather stay put and enjoy where I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 If current trends continue I would agree Abilene is probably going to get to have winter weather fun based on the current projections. Easily the most significant winter storm Texas has dealt with since the late February 2013 blizzard. Don't you just love El Nino? David....what are some of the major differences you are seeing in the modeling? Is it the strength of the arctic high pressure or the strength of the storm or a combination of both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Still room for this to move farther east based on Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 When does the system become fully sampled? Another 40 hours or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Winter storm #Goliath has been named in advance by TWC. Now if only #David had a #stone, just to turn #Goliath's #snow into #rain. Oh, the goofiness of TWC's storm names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 You know what I think, it seems like most of our rain makers so far since summer have been huge flooding storms. It's like we havent even gotten many smaller storms it seems like all of them have been monsters, maybe just maybe it will be cold enough eventually and one of these big storms will produce a hefty ammount of snow/ice. I am more worried about ice this season though, it seems eerily similiar to other ice storm winters I have been through. Yea I dont follow models like you guys do, I go on my instincts and what I have seen over my life in winters....how they panned out and how each is similiar. Or maybe I am just getting too damn old haha. I like what Whiteout is saying here and I could actually see something like this happening due to the sagging jet, January averages, etc. This has been the year of the big precip producing storms so far this fall/early winter in the southern plains region. I went back to October and gathered dates and amounts of our biggest storm systems. We have seen hefty rain makers in the 2-5" range on average of every couple of weeks or so. Late October, mid and late November, mid December, and now another one forecasted late December. 5 major systems over that span. Pretty impressive. If you follow the Heady pattern at all and buy into his cycle theory (which has been working out pretty well lately), we should see these repeat every 45-47 days or so. That puts us into good storm potential early, mid, and late January, and then again early to mid February. Not all of these would be winter storms of course, but all it takes is the right proximity of cold air for one of these to tap into and there you go. So I still believe as we get further into our favored times of winter that we stand the chance to jackpot one of these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Winter storm #Goliath has been named in advance by TWC. Now if only #David had a #stone, just to turn #Goliath's #snow into #rain. Oh, the goofiness of TWC's storm names. all about marketing/rating attempts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 all about marketing/rating attempts Yup. All caused by a #Godzilla El Niño. Lol. Hype weather is funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 You know, I wouldn't mind the winter storm naming so much if it was "Winter Storm A," "Winter Storm B," ... "Winter Storm Z," then "Winter Storm AA" if we ran out of letters. It would not be very creative but at least we wouldn't have had "Winter Storm Janus." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 You know, I wouldn't mind the winter storm naming so much if it was "Winter Storm A," "Winter Storm B," ... "Winter Storm Z," then "Winter Storm AA" if we ran out of letters. It would not be very creative but at least we wouldn't have had "Winter Storm Janus." Not sure what would be worse... these names they currently are using or using the names of fruit/vegetables/legumes ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Not sure what would be worse... these names they currently are using or using the names of fruit/vegetables/legumes ... Winter storm black bean is going to be windy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Keep in mind that as the upper low moves out of the Rio Grande and NE through TX, it will be taking on more of a negative tilt, and warm air will surge in aloft and at the ground to the east and NE of it. So that would limit how far east the heavy snow could get ahead of the upper low (behind it, the air would still be cold enough due to the low heights). Also, the low will eventually stack, probably over NE TX or OK, lessening the dynamics the storm has to work with, reducing the potential for heavy prolonged snow once that happened. That's why the heaviest snow potential is likely over the NM mountains, into west TX and likely western OK and maybe part of Kansas near Wichita to Kansas City, in a thinning band as one heads NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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