Roy Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Been looking at this since it's determining if I go up north to KS after Christmas for my family's event. That may be canceled at this rate based on this info. But, still some time to go. An incredible amount of snow being dumped in many cases though, which is insane for this part of the country. I am tempted to lie to the wife about how bad it will be just so I can see it. The most snow growing up in Kansas I ever saw was a foot a couple times, both with epic thundersnow. Doesn't look like much ice currently, but surely with this much QPF there will be a big ice storm on the southern end, which would further incline me to stay put in TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 22, 2015 Author Share Posted December 22, 2015 Been looking at this since it's determining if I go up north to KS after Christmas for my family's event. That may be canceled at this rate based on this info. But, still some time to go. An incredible amount of snow being dumped in many cases though, which is insane for this part of the country. I am tempted to lie to the wife about how bad it will be just so I can see it. The most snow growing up in Kansas I ever saw was a foot a couple times, both with epic thundersnow. Doesn't look like much ice currently, but surely with this much QPF there will be a big ice storm on the southern end, which would further incline me to stay put in TX. Yeah. Unless you're headed to SE Kansas, you may have a problem on your hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Looks like a huge Arctic dump on the 12z Euro control for the start of next year. No snow though unless you live in Brownsville, TX or NE Mexico, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Looks like a huge Arctic dump on the 12z Euro control for the start of next year. No snow though unless you live in Brownsville, TX or NE Mexico, lolSnow in Brownsville, TX before Boston, MA this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Another nudge east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 The track of the 700mb low is key too, usually along and NW of that is where the heavy snow is. Won't take much of a SE shift in the upper low tracks to get good snow into Wichita and Kansas City, maybe even into Oklahoma City. Plenty of time still for that. Someone will likely see 18" or more snow from this if the upper low remains this impressive. Along with plenty of severe on the warm sector of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 22, 2015 Author Share Posted December 22, 2015 Looks like a huge Arctic dump on the 12z Euro control for the start of next year. No snow though unless you live in Brownsville, TX or NE Mexico, lol This winter is stupid. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Another nudge east... ] Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Another nudge east... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122218/gfs_asnow_scus_png How far is this missing you? 50 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 How far is this missing you? 50 miles? Probably 75-100 or so for the heavier 'band'. Located just NW of the darker shade of light blue in far SW MO on this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Hey, if it shifts another 130 miles southeast, would be in business here in Fort Worth. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I still think it'll end up farther NW though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Probably 75-100 or so for the heavier 'band'. Located just NW of the darker shade of light blue in far SW MO on this map. Wow. Verbatim that is a 6" to 10" storm in the northwestern half of the OKC metro and 3" to 6" in the southwestern half... and dropping off quickly to the east. Of course, I would assume that even if the track and surface temps did somehow verify (and nobody's betting on the 18z GFS 5 days out) a lot of the precip would be "wasted" on sleet. Still, it is pretty cool having something to track less than a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Another shift east on 00z GFS. doesn't appear to have the same massive totals thus far in the run tho.. at 12Z SUN right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Yep, there's a stronger push of cold air on the 00z GFS tonight and a slower/farther south evolution of the closed low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Hasn't the EURO been showing a more southern track, like the GFS has trended to, the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Aargh, from a NYC snow weenie doing this for waaayyy too long, forget the snow weenie maps (follow the fights in that forum if it ever comes together this winter). Follow the 500mb and 700mb low tracks. Along and NW of the 700mb low track, that's where to expect snow. NW of the 500mb low, expect the heavier snow. And follow the Euro much more than the GFS. Take any run you see with a grain of salt at 72hr or more out, that might be the best lesson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Hasn't the EURO been showing a more southern track, like the GFS has trended to, the whole time. 12z Euro was farther west, and the parallel was even farther west than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z Euro was farther west, and the parallel was even farther west than that. You still have a long way to go (96hrs out). I think Lubbock to Dodge City, KS is the best place to be at this juncture, but snow forecasting can be very humbling this far out. What can trend east can trend back west. The severe threat down here is probably more clear-cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 00z GEM looks pretty good, but it's probably warm and well, it's the GEM... Now to wait on the 00z Euro to crush my weather high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Let's see just how badly King Euro can rip the bandaid off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Euro is too warm for most of the SW MO/NE OK crowd. Still a huge dump of snow for parts of W & C KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 00z Euro is about 12 hours slower and much farther south than it's 12z run. Seriously, that upper low is camping. Similar track to the 12z run though, across central OK, just 12 hours later. Tons of rain for our immediate area. Snow back in the TX Panhandle, extreme far west OK and western and part of central KS. Probably some freezing rain or something immediately to the east of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 23, 2015 Author Share Posted December 23, 2015 Euro has been pretty firm with its position. Still thinking it has to adjust east at some point but not as much as the GFS has obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I noticed that about the upper low as well. It appears the main difference from the two models is that one fills out the ULL faster (EURO,) while the GFS continues to strengthen the system (down to 537 dM in SE OK at 12z Mon) as it moves northeast. 00z Euro is about 12 hours slower and much farther south than it's 12z run. Seriously, that upper low is camping. Similar track to the 12z run though, across central OK, just 12 hours later. Tons of rain for our immediate area. Snow back in the TX Panhandle, extreme far west OK and western and part of central KS. Probably some freezing rain or something immediately to the east of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Euro always wins over the GFS. May as well throw in the towel I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 What do y'all think the chances are that the KC area receives some decent snow though? Or will they be too far east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 What do y'all think the chances are that the KC area receives some decent snow though? Or will they be too far east? The 22/18z and 23/00z GFS would bring substantial snows into the KC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 But the 00z Euro probably wouldn't bring snow to the KC area. I could see possible freezing rain to rain eventually though. Just based on this model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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