MoWeatherguy Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 Interesting on the precip. Looks a bit Nina'ish over the mid-miss and Ohio valley regions. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 Eh, they are usually dry during El-Nino and wet during La-Nina so that's a fairly common look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted September 14, 2015 Share Posted September 14, 2015 Ok yah I had my maps backwards in my mind. So pretty typical. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted September 14, 2015 Author Share Posted September 14, 2015 Yeah. They went pretty safe on everything. Standard strong Nino prediction. Not too surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 JAMSTEC has updated. Compared to last month, we are wetter and colder. Big shift of colder temps to the west and NW. Precip increased: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Nice... hope it's close. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted September 16, 2015 Author Share Posted September 16, 2015 JAMSTEC has updated. Compared to last month, we are wetter and colder. Big shift of colder temps to the west and NW. Precip increased: That's a blend of 2009-10, 2002-03 and 2013-14. I'm sure there is another year or 2 you could blend for balance but I'll take that any winter. :-) Every model but one I think has trended colder and farther west except for CFSv2 and I always laugh at it. I'm loving where this is headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted September 17, 2015 Author Share Posted September 17, 2015 WSI said in tweet this morning that ENSO forcing has likely peaked. This is good news for us if true. Weaker and farther west from here on is the goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 IRI has a somewhat standard Nino climo look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 CFS v2 seems mega confused right now. It's got a different look almost every run. Usually it changes a bit daily, but these are large changes that give a different Pacific and Arctic look each run. The models have kind of busted on what it was supposed to do in Sept so far anyway. Makes me uncertain about winter...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 CFS v2 seems mega confused right now. It's got a different look almost every run. Usually it changes a bit daily, but these are large changes that give a different Pacific and Arctic look each run. The models have kind of busted on what it was supposed to do in Sept so far anyway. Makes me uncertain about winter...... Hola. Visiting from another sub forum. As far as Nino climo, one thing that hasn't happened in our neck of the woods that typically does happen is an abrupt early end to summer. Makes me wonder if we'll get an atypical winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 Not sure at this point. The big fear would be a winter like 1997-1998 which was mild. I posted maps on the old thread of the 30 days ending around June 20th or so for CFS v2 runs. I just looked at the last 30 day run ending around Sept 20th and compared it to the earlier maps. For Dec, the Aleutian low area took a pretty big jump north and a bit east when compared to June's run. The southern branch looks a bit weaker. For Jan, the Aleutian low area is farther north than it was in June. Also the southern branch is a bit farther south. For Feb, everything is a bit farther south but still in general agreement with the location of the Aleutian low. So there was a big noticeable change with December in putting the low farther north towards Alaska, and a farther north position in January as well but it wasn't as big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted September 21, 2015 Author Share Posted September 21, 2015 Just doing some research on temperature trends for autumn. (Tulsa NWS) It seems that the better Nino years for cold and snow in winter featured a fairly overall cold autumn. Several were in the top 20 in fact with 2009 being the coldest. No surprise that the worst years in the list were the 2 'super' Nino years. Seems to me that we need to trend cold pretty fast or we'll only be watching winter on the news or in other regions. Maybe the start of October can flip the switch, so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted September 21, 2015 Share Posted September 21, 2015 October looks like a pretty warm month, Autumn as a whole looks to be pretty good amount above normal. Going to be waiting a while for any real cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted September 21, 2015 Author Share Posted September 21, 2015 October looks like a pretty warm month, Autumn as a whole looks to be pretty good amount above normal. Going to be waiting a while for any real cold. I'm cancelling winter then until further notice. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 New Euro weeklies today.... Looks like the ensemble mean has the Aleutian low area developing in the GOA and retrograding back west to around the 'correct' position as we head through Oct. Control run has a trough over central Canada and ridging in the GOA though..... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted September 22, 2015 Author Share Posted September 22, 2015 New Euro weeklies today.... Looks like the ensemble mean has the Aleutian low area developing in the GOA and retrograding back west to around the 'correct' position as we head through Oct. Control run has a trough over central Canada and ridging in the GOA though..... lol Not looking too great. Probably going to end up tossing December which I guess was the original idea that a lot of people had anyway. Hoping the ensembles win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted September 24, 2015 Author Share Posted September 24, 2015 Hey JoMo, Do you know what the AO averaged for August by chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Hey JoMo, Do you know what the AO averaged for August by chance? Looked negative to me. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html Think it was -0.689 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted September 24, 2015 Author Share Posted September 24, 2015 Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 25, 2015 Share Posted September 25, 2015 The good thing on the Weeklies today is that it doesn't look like we get a GOA trough that gets stuck there in October. Looks like it'll retrograde back to the W and NW after about the first week in Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted September 25, 2015 Author Share Posted September 25, 2015 The good thing on the Weeklies today is that it doesn't look like we get a GOA trough that gets stuck there in October. Looks like it'll retrograde back to the W and NW after about the first week in Oct. Yeah. I saw the Euro trying to throw some cold our way in about 9-10 days. I understand blocking is also trying to develop in the Atlantic. Would be cool if it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 GFS Ensemble and the Euro Ensemble aren't that different in the long range, and it actually matches up pretty well with what the Euro weeklies showed back on Thurs. This is a pretty decent look for an El Nino and it would be pretty good if it would stick around. Low/troughing far enough west towards the Aleutians to pump the ridge up into Alaska and NW Canada, resulting trough downstream in central and eastern Canada with colder temps there. Even looks like there's a bit of a sag to the lines in the SW US probably indicating that a few of the members have a storm system at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted September 26, 2015 Author Share Posted September 26, 2015 I don't have anybody else to ask but on here but what do you folks make of the crazy warmth above the Nino off the Baja? It's almost like a 2nd 'mini Nino'. I've saw some things that would say it points to a colder winter but I imagine it to be speculation mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 26, 2015 Share Posted September 26, 2015 I don't have anybody else to ask but on here but what do you folks make of the crazy warmth above the Nino off the Baja? It's almost like a 2nd 'mini Nino'. I've saw some things that would say it points to a colder winter but I imagine it to be speculation mostly. According to Joe D, the warmth there leads to a colder look in the central and east, but it isn't an overwhelming signal and the El Nino itself leads to warmth in the central and east, so they kind of cancel each other out overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted September 27, 2015 Author Share Posted September 27, 2015 According to Joe D, the warmth there leads to a colder look in the central and east, but it isn't an overwhelming signal and the El Nino itself leads to warmth in the central and east, so they kind of cancel each other out overall. Cancelled out is better than warm I suppose. This winter still has no definitive signal at all yet. It really makes speculating on it quite useless for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted September 28, 2015 Author Share Posted September 28, 2015 So the cold shot suggested in about 35 or so of the Euro members in about 7 days is becoming impressive to say the least huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Nothing really to worry about in the Weeklies tonight. Possible west coast trough developing towards the end of October maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 There are more weather-model web sites popping up every day. This one is a pretty good one. http://www.owxdata.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 There are more weather-model web sites popping up every day. This one is a pretty good one. http://www.owxdata.com Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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