OKwx2K4 Posted December 10, 2015 Author Share Posted December 10, 2015 Giving up on winter weather before Christmas maybe. But Jan/Feb and even into early March is still possible. I just saw the parallel euro or whatever it's called. It has something for some of us next week also. Have you seen it JoMo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I just saw the parallel euro or whatever it's called. It has something for some of us next week also. Have you seen it JoMo? I saw last nights. Yesterday had something interesting, but today it's all blah. The ensembles have a storm system over the Rockies around Christmas. Weeklies here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 10, 2015 Author Share Posted December 10, 2015 I saw last nights. Yesterday had something interesting, but today it's all blah. The ensembles have a storm system over the Rockies around Christmas. Weeklies here shortly. Maybe it was yesterday's. I should've asked the date. It was shown by someone who isn't supposed to be showing it though so I didn't ask any questions. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I saw last nights. Yesterday had something interesting, but today it's all blah. The ensembles have a storm system over the Rockies around Christmas. Weeklies here shortly. I'm headed to Denver for Christmas so a storm in the Rockies sounds great. At least I'd get to see some snow before 2016 rolls in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 The long range/seasonal models have been too far south with storm systems. 82-83 probably fits the best as an analog right now. That was not good for snow in our area. We'll see what happens though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Euro Weeklies: Looks the sameish, general pattern features a stormy west and southwest and a warm east through Jan 10th. The storminess up in Alaska may try to retrograde as we get to the first week of next year. Control run yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 So anyone see this 926 MB storm out by the Aleutians in the next 48 hours? That's Nuri-like. I wonder what effect on the weather it will have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 So anyone see this 926 MB storm out by the Aleutians in the next 48 hours? That's Nuri-like. I wonder what effect on the weather it will have. There is some excellent discussion on the main thread page. Donald Sutherland gives his thoughts and it's very interesting. Let's hope this is the catalyst to kick starting winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 There is some excellent discussion on the main thread page. Donald Sutherland gives his thoughts and it's very interesting. Let's hope this is the catalyst to kick starting winter. Thanks... Interesting discussion, but I can't wait 30-40 days, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Awful awful awful.... It would be bearable if there was a glimmer of hope out there for some snow at some point. Instead it's just warmth warmth, warmth..... well the Euro ensemble has 50 or so members and at least one of them has snow in the next 15 days. I guess thats a glimmer of hope, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Man December is just shot to hell is all we can say at this point. Hopefully the back half of winter can be salvaged. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 12, 2015 Author Share Posted December 12, 2015 Exercise in weather futility continues..... That bomb up there is quite impressive. I at least hope it gets cold soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Just read the Weatherbell.com winter forecast again and so far it is spot on with the warm December idea. Let's hope it's right the rest of the way. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Just read the Weatherbell.com winter forecast again and so far it is spot on with the warm December idea. Let's hope it's right the rest of the way. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A Yeah, basically all the models still indicate a flip, at some point... Jan? Feb? Mid-Jan is coldest time of year, just need a storm track to the south of us, and not this awful western trough crap that keeps happening. MJO needs to move to something more favorable. It never died out like it was expected to. Currently in the warm 4 mode, but the latest Euro takes it to around 7 which is cold after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 come on..no one can be surprised by this. I've been expecting this month to be a write off for about 5 months now, lol. I hate it too, but lets give it some time. It's only Dec 12, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 It's always 16 days away on the GFS. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 It's always 16 days away on the GFS. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A had snow inside of 200 hours before..... disappeared of course This all has to flip at some point, as the atmosphere will always overcompensate when trying to equal itself out. I'm just pouting because I didn't get my snow before Christmas and I'm going to have to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Yah I understand I'm venting a bit, too. I guess the winter's of 97-98 and 82-83 are just too entrenched in my memories lol. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Just read the Weatherbell.com winter forecast again and so far it is spot on with the warm December idea. Let's hope it's right the rest of the way. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A Umm...no. They have underestimated the depth of warmth by a huge margin. Sent from my S50 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I meant they're on with the general warm idea, notwithstanding the extent of warmth. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Jomo, i watched jb video today. He said he is very confident in ridge shifting west toward west canada. Any reason why he feels that way? Also, what do you think can slow the pac jet down? Its still real strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Jomo, i watched jb video today. He said he is very confident in ridge shifting west toward west canada. Any reason why he feels that way? Also, what do you think can slow the pac jet down? Its still real strong. We'll see if that happens, the long range models have it happening, but you never know and the jet is going to be strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 Needs to get there quickly. Too much red paint on the anomalies maps for my liking for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 Jomo, i watched jb video today. He said he is very confident in ridge shifting west toward west canada. Any reason why he feels that way? Also, what do you think can slow the pac jet down? Its still real strong. Don't know that we'll slow it down but I'd settle for it getting suppressed to its 'correct' position instead of where it's at now. Without -AO, very doubtful it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 UKMET updated: Nothing much has changed with the general outlook. The center of the ridging is still expected over NW Canada with the jet cutting underneath. Being how this season has gone so far, I'd expect the jet to be farther north than the models indicate. This has all the hallmarks of a strong El Nino like 82-83, 97-98, etc... Temps have warmed a bit: Precip is still generally BN The JMA 3 month forecast has updated as well. Similar look.... http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Damnit this is disgusting. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 What happened in 82-88 and 97-98 for this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 Yup. I give up. 3 months of March, here we come. Winter's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 What happened in 82-88 and 97-98 for this area?Tulsa: 1982-83- 5.2 inches of snow1997-98. 3.4 inches. :-( Edit/add Fayetteville was even worse than that. 1.2 I think in 82-83 and 2.5 in 1997-98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Tulsa: 1982-83- 5.2 inches of snow 1997-98. 3.4 inches. :-( Edit/add Fayetteville was even worse than that. 1.2 I think in 82-83 and 2.5 in 1997-98. Oh wow....that sounds awful! At least we aren't alone...sounds like 1/2 of the country is going to be screaming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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