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OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2015-16 Discussion


OKwx2K4

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Giving up on winter weather before Christmas maybe. But Jan/Feb and even into early March is still possible.

I just saw the parallel euro or whatever it's called. It has something for some of us next week also. Have you seen it JoMo?

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I just saw the parallel euro or whatever it's called. It has something for some of us next week also. Have you seen it JoMo?

 

I saw last nights. Yesterday had something interesting, but today it's all blah. The ensembles have a storm system over the Rockies around Christmas. Weeklies here shortly.

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I saw last nights. Yesterday had something interesting, but today it's all blah. The ensembles have a storm system over the Rockies around Christmas. Weeklies here shortly.

Maybe it was yesterday's. I should've asked the date. It was shown by someone who isn't supposed to be showing it though so I didn't ask any questions. Lol

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So anyone see this 926 MB storm out by the Aleutians in the next 48 hours? That's Nuri-like. I wonder what effect on the weather it will have.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_ak_3.png

There is some excellent discussion on the main thread page. Donald Sutherland gives his thoughts and it's very interesting. Let's hope this is the catalyst to kick starting winter.

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There is some excellent discussion on the main thread page. Donald Sutherland gives his thoughts and it's very interesting. Let's hope this is the catalyst to kick starting winter.

 

Thanks... Interesting discussion, but I can't wait 30-40 days, lol

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Awful awful awful.... It would be bearable if there was a glimmer of hope out there for some snow at some point. Instead it's just warmth warmth, warmth..... well the Euro ensemble has 50 or so members and at least one of them has snow in the next 15 days. I guess thats a glimmer of hope, lol

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Just read the Weatherbell.com winter forecast again and so far it is spot on with the warm December idea. Let's hope it's right the rest of the way.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A

 

Yeah, basically all the models still indicate a flip, at some point... Jan? Feb? Mid-Jan is coldest time of year, just need a storm track to the south of us, and not this awful western trough crap that keeps happening.

 

MJO needs to move to something more favorable. It never died out like it was expected to. Currently in the warm 4 mode, but the latest Euro takes it to around 7 which is cold after Christmas.

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It's always 16 days away on the GFS.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A

 

had snow inside of 200 hours before..... disappeared of course ;) 

 

This all has to flip at some point, as the atmosphere will always overcompensate when trying to equal itself out.  I'm just pouting because I didn't get my snow before Christmas and I'm going to have to wait. 

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Just read the Weatherbell.com winter forecast again and so far it is spot on with the warm December idea. Let's hope it's right the rest of the way.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A

Umm...no. They have underestimated the depth of warmth by a huge margin.

Sent from my S50 using Tapatalk

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Jomo, i watched jb video today. He said he is very confident in ridge shifting west toward west canada. Any reason why he feels that way? Also, what do you think can slow the pac jet down? Its still real strong.

 

We'll see if that happens, the long range models have it happening, but you never know and the jet is going to be strong.

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Jomo, i watched jb video today. He said he is very confident in ridge shifting west toward west canada. Any reason why he feels that way? Also, what do you think can slow the pac jet down? Its still real strong.

Don't know that we'll slow it down but I'd settle for it getting suppressed to its 'correct' position instead of where it's at now. Without -AO, very doubtful it happens.

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UKMET updated:

 

Nothing much has changed with the general outlook. The center of the ridging is still expected over NW Canada with the jet cutting underneath. Being how this season has gone so far, I'd expect the jet to be farther north than the models indicate. This has all the hallmarks of a strong El Nino like 82-83, 97-98, etc...

 

2cat_20151201_z500_months24_north_americ

 

 

Temps have warmed a bit:

 

2cat_20151201_temp2m_months24_north_amer

 

 

Precip is still generally BN

2cat_20151201_prec_months24_north_americ

 

 

The JMA 3 month forecast has updated as well. Similar look.... 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/

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Tulsa: 1982-83- 5.2 inches of snow

1997-98. 3.4 inches. :-(

Edit/add

Fayetteville was even worse than that. 1.2 I think in 82-83 and 2.5 in 1997-98.

Oh wow....that sounds awful!  :axe: At least we aren't alone...sounds like 1/2 of the country is going to be screaming!

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