OKwx2K4 Posted December 5, 2015 Author Share Posted December 5, 2015 The upcoming pattern starting in about a week is going to be a very active and confusing one for the models since there's a lot of energy smashing into the western US. Will it all come out as one big storm system? Will it come out as multiple waves? A mix of both? Also where does it come out? If the trend so far this season holds up, any storm(s) may pass to our north and west. Anything that passes to our south though would probably give us at least a chance of some snowfall. We'll see what happens..... At some point, one would have to think that the mean trough position would advance east further and become suppressed further south as time goes giving a more west-east style storm track through the area. Those storms being dealt off the Pacific in rapid-fire mode could only be a good thing in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 At some point, one would have to think that the mean trough position would advance east further and become suppressed further south as time goes giving a more west-east style storm track through the area. Those storms being dealt off the Pacific in rapid-fire mode could only be a good thing in my opinion. I was thinking the same thing. It is nice seeing the Euro go farther east today with the trough positioning. With the waves coming in hot and heavy once it starts, it doesn't look like anything will get stuck in the SW, at least not for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 5, 2015 Author Share Posted December 5, 2015 I was thinking the same thing. It is nice seeing the Euro go farther east today with the trough positioning. With the waves coming in hot and heavy once it starts, it doesn't look like anything will get stuck in the SW, at least not for awhile. I agree. Another thing I'm mulling over right now is that there's a possibility somewhere of some severe weather development. A new years eve 2010-2011 type of situation comes to mind. One would hope that's not the case but something to be aware of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 All dynamics baby, cause there's not really enough cold air around....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 Yep. Would b nice. That's a pretty stout low. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2015 Share Posted December 6, 2015 12z Euro has something similar but farther SE. Probably a rain/snow mix across AR and SE MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 6, 2015 Author Share Posted December 6, 2015 That would be pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 12z Euro has a great track for MO/KS next Sunday, but we still need temps to get lower. Kind of frustrating seeing a powerful storm system taking a track that would give some of us a lot of snow, but everything is marginal due to temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Yah I have a feeling this one's not working out for most on here. Wrong side of these powerhouse systems sux. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Yeah, it wouldn't shock me to see it trend farther NW as well. El Nino is where we get the NW trend isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 I think so but not 100%. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Euro Weeklies: Go out to Jan 7th today. AO could briefly drop negative early on before rising again to positive. PNA will be negative before rising to around neutral to positive. General El Nino type pattern remains. Stormy around mid-month, then there are signs that the storminess may retrograde back into the west for a few days and another storm may come out around Christmas or shortly after, followed by more of the usual El Nino pattern. No real sustained cold in sight, and warm ups between storm systems but if you end up on the NW side of one of the systems, you may see some snow. Temps are generally above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Man its gonna b a tough winter if u love snow. Gotta get lucky with one of these eventually I suppose. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 I just dont have a good feeling about things either, time will tell. I know so far that this has been the warmest start of december I have ever seen in my lifetime that I can remember! Hell if these temps keep up I'll be busting out the mower again cause some patches of the yard are growing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Yah I know it's bad. I have some hope for the last half of winter but not much. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 8, 2015 Author Share Posted December 8, 2015 Any good news out of the Euro for next wednesday? I let my subscription expire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Any good news out of the Euro for next wednesday? I let my subscription expire. Big snowstorm on Sunday/Monday... if it was a bit colder.... for SE KS into western MO and northern and western OK. Nothing much for Wed, snow possible up in the Dakotas and Minnesota, probably rain or storms developing just to our south, pending timing. That's it through Day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 9, 2015 Author Share Posted December 9, 2015 My winter hopes are fading a little. Need to block up the pattern and get the cold air down here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Last nights Sub-monthly CFS snowfall through around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 9, 2015 Author Share Posted December 9, 2015 I'll take a blend of top left and bottom left please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 At least the crazy is inside of 200 hours on the GFS tonight..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 10, 2015 Author Share Posted December 10, 2015 Haha. You beat me here by a minute. Lol. Was just coming here to say the same thing. I'm crossing my fingers that at least something happens this time around. Getting bored with this nice warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 At least the crazy is inside of 200 hours on the GFS tonight..... LOCK THAT IN PLEASE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 10, 2015 Author Share Posted December 10, 2015 LOCK THAT IN PLEASE! Agreed. That would be a win for pretty much everyone here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 fwiw several runs of the GFS over the last few days-- but nothing too consistent-- have hinted/been showing some type of big snow event in the central plains, but not this far south until this run. That'd be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Euro laughed at the GFS, while the GEM said maybe something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted December 10, 2015 Author Share Posted December 10, 2015 Well, the GFS laughed at itself now on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Yep, El Nino is the one where everything trends northwest as we get closer. Severe threat is gonna be around for Sat. 12z Euro was just awful, unless you like warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Bleh, this warmth just sux! I cannot believe how warm it is. So it sounds like some of us are already losing hope once again this season already, me included lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Bleh, this warmth just sux! I cannot believe how warm it is. So it sounds like some of us are already losing hope once again this season already, me included lol. Giving up on winter weather before Christmas maybe. But Jan/Feb and even into early March is still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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