JoMo Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Nov 30, 2006 anybody? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A Have to hope the 12z GFS is right long range for once.... cause it gets uggggggly after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Hopefully there's something falling and sticking here before Christmas this yr. Give me one good snow in December and I'll be patient waiting on a good back end of winter. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 I wonder why they only show .5 inches in January of 07 for the whole season then. Pretty weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Snow is still there on 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Snow is still there on 12z GFS. 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 18z GFS Looks like it shifted SE this run. May be precip type issues as well. Edit.. Looks fine still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 21, 2015 Author Share Posted November 21, 2015 Lol. I didn't realize I typed 12 instead of 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 21, 2015 Author Share Posted November 21, 2015 So the question would be, which model is handling this the best so far? Honestly the Euro looks a little lost the last couple of runs in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 21, 2015 Author Share Posted November 21, 2015 This is from NWS Tulsa. Last part regarding the events coming next weekend. South winds will return during the day Sunday, allowing for a warmup that will last through the middle of next week and likely through Thanksgiving Day. The persistent south winds will allow moisture to increase especially by the middle of the week, with rain chances increasing accordingly. Widespread rainfall will be likely by the end of next week, as a large upper low parks itself over the western half of the country. Precipitation may be ongoing into the early part of next weekend with colder low level air moving in behind another frontal passage. Although the details this far out remain very uncertain, IF rain persists that long, a transition to freezing rain may occur with some potential for ice impacts. A very warm above surface layer points toward freezing rain as the most likely wintry precipitation type IF wintry precipitation occurs. The forecast will include a mention of rain or freezing rain Friday night across the northern half of the forecast area, but with the uncertainties mentioned above, this is not a slam dunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Hopefully there's something falling and sticking here before Christmas this yr. Give me one good snow in December and I'll be patient waiting on a good back end of winter. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A Yep, I just want snow before Christmas to put me in the Christmas spirit. Looks like I may have to get up early in the AM this morning to see some flurries mixing in with the showers or I can hope for the longshot GFS overrunning situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Nov 30, 2006 anybody? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A Man I remember this and have pics of that storm! That year and 2007 was insane with snow and ice storms, its when I first moved back to missouri from jersey. I have pics if ya'll want to see them sometime I will gladly upload them somewhere online for everyone to see. I believe we got close to 18" of snow, Osceola missouri. The date stamp was december 1st after the snowstorm! How crazy, edit....Just saw JoMo's post and found a text writeup I did saying 15"...right on the nose that forecast was! Heres one pic of that storm in 06 MoWeatherGuy mentioned...this was while it was ongoing. Had to shrink this down for the board sorry guys...just to give ya'll an idea of what I got out of that. I remember that storm being almost blizzard like and whipping the snows everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Snow showers possible in the morning up in my area, nothing going to accumulate but maybe some snow mixed in with the showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 A little faster this run but the mix is still showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Guess we have something to officially watch Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Guess we have something to officially watch Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A Possibly, still a long way away though. The GGEM had a really interesting run tonight primarily to our west. There's still a lot that could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Possibly, still a long way away though. The GGEM had a really interesting run tonight primarily to our west. There's still a lot that could change. I like your location for a wintery threat day 7-8. Wave riding a front deal...cold looks to be there with the big drop in the EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Light snow is falling in Bentonville this morning. Nothing to get too excited about but awesome to see the first flakes of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 21, 2015 Author Share Posted November 21, 2015 Light snow is falling in Bentonville this morning. Nothing to get too excited about but awesome to see the first flakes of the season. Yeah. Got pelted with some graupel/sleet on my way to my hunting spot. Windy as heck but they're in early rut still so can't shoot them if you're not with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Snow came down at a fairly good clip for a bit early this morning. Gave a dusting to the grass and elevated surfaces that has now almost completely melted off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Not a flake here. Just few showers and 30s earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 For the next system...12z GFS kicked the entire system out, so basically all we got was a cold frontal passage. 12z GGEM is still leaving energy behind over the west and would be more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 I had a feeling that was the next step on the GFS. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Well the 12z GFS sure was ugly. The 12z GGEM is a bit more exciting and matches the 12z Euro better. The best chances for anything frozen still look to remain to our west and north though. Going to depend on how cold the air is and how far east it makes it before it stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Weeklies should be coming out soon, so maybe we can turn it around toward mid or late December when it naturally gets even colder? It does look like the parade of storms across the south will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 Extended just offers nothing yet on the GFS. So it may be mid December or later before we make another step. Doug 's forecast apparently out tonite. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Euro Weeklies: The weeklies today go out to Christmas Eve. +AO looks to remain with a +PNA that may dip somewhat as we head towards late Dec. Expect the same El Nino pattern with an Aleutian low and energy cutting under the ridging across Canada into the west and southern US through around mid-Dec. Initially the systems may be somewhat farther south (of us) as those are some pretty potent higher heights across Canada, but by mid-month the higher heights head north and are centered more over Hudson Bay and eventually wind up east of Hudson Bay by the end of the run. The control isn't that far off from the ensemble mean from the looks of things. Based off this run, I'd say that we should see the general El Nino pattern continue. The systems will come into the west or southwest US and cross the southern US. It looks like around mid-month, there will probably be at least 1 bigger system that passes close by. The end of the run, which is around Christmas, looks like there will be a large trough extending from way north of Alaska all the way into the western US and Plains. So I'd say things look better once we get to around mid-Dec. EDIT: The warmest temp anomalies actually move from west to east across Canada through the end of the run. Around here, I'd say temps are around normal to slightly above, with the warmest probably being just before mid-Dec. The control run has below normal temps for us, probably due to the cooling effect from expected snowfall it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 24, 2015 Author Share Posted November 24, 2015 Good analysis. Thank you. Looks like patience and rain are the themes for the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Euro Weeklies: The weeklies today go out to Christmas Eve. +AO looks to remain with a +PNA that may dip somewhat as we head towards late Dec. Expect the same El Nino pattern with an Aleutian low and energy cutting under the ridging across Canada into the west and southern US through around mid-Dec. Initially the systems may be somewhat farther south (of us) as those are some pretty potent higher heights across Canada, but by mid-month the higher heights head north and are centered more over Hudson Bay and eventually wind up east of Hudson Bay by the end of the run. The control isn't that far off from the ensemble mean from the looks of things. Based off this run, I'd say that we should see the general El Nino pattern continue. The systems will come into the west or southwest US and cross the southern US. It looks like around mid-month, there will probably be at least 1 bigger system that passes close by. The end of the run, which is around Christmas, looks like there will be a large trough extending from way north of Alaska all the way into the western US and Plains. So I'd say things look better once we get to around mid-Dec. EDIT: The warmest temp anomalies actually move from west to east across Canada through the end of the run. Around here, I'd say temps are around normal to slightly above, with the warmest probably being just before mid-Dec. The control run has below normal temps for us, probably due to the cooling effect from expected snowfall it has. Looks like it's progressing as expected... https://twitter.com/danleonard_wx/status/668915846757163008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Meteorologist Doug Heady had his winter forecast tonight. Cycle is about 53 days. 16" is average snow.... He thinks whole country above average temps for the winter... Above normal precip in our area. He thinks 16-20" snow... 1-2 ice storms 2-3 big snow events... Lot of rainy systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Seems pretty average. Surprised he went above avg everywhere. But hey I would take his forecast this yr. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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