packbacker Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 It's definitely a lot more active than the last 2 years already. At least it's giving more hope this year. I keep thinking we are going to see full on conus torch like last Dec but if the EPO can stay negative I guess there is a chance...the AO/NAO sure don't look helpful for Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 I keep thinking we are going to see full on conus torch like last Dec but if the EPO can stay negative I guess there is a chance...the AO/NAO sure don't look helpful for Dec. True but it looks like the Euro almost develops a +TNH pattern correct? Another weird thing is that the warmest model (CFS, I know it's the CFS. Lol) has been showing a -AO from around the 2nd week of December on. There are a lot of different things to be watching at the moment for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 True but it looks like the Euro almost develops a +TNH pattern correct? Another weird thing is that the warmest model (CFS, I know it's the CFS. Lol) has been showing a -AO from around the 2nd week of December on. There are a lot of different things to be watching at the moment for sure. Yep, EPS looks very +TNH days 8-12 or so and then after that it goes to a more canonical nino look, NPac low over/sw of the aleutians, -EPO with trough in the southern plains to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Yep, EPS looks very +TNH days 8-12 or so and then after that it goes to a more canonical nino look, NPac low over/sw of the aleutians, -EPO with trough in the southern plains to the SE. That's pretty much what I thought. Not really a bad look considering the circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 45 days of snowfall on the CFS v2. (goes from now until early Jan) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 Lol. Yeah. I saw something like that on Bastardi's post this morning. Not bad for the warmest model there is right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 GFS is getting pretty shaky on how cold the early December cold outbreak will be now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Yeah we'll see, the JMA has cold in the central US in the week 2 period. Few flurries mixing in with the light showers Fri night into Sat? Maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 12z GFS is cold again today. Will have to see what the hiccup was in last nights runs...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 That would be pretty neat. Saturday morning is going to be nice and chilly to start my Deer gun season. Might be a tad windy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 12z GFS is cold again today. Will have to see what the hiccup was in last nights runs...... Yeah. Didn't really put a lot of stock in the ones this morning. It's something like 6-2 in favor of cold at this point with all other relevant models saying cold. I'm going to go with cold. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Thought the 12z Euro was going to show something good at the end of it's run. System looks to shear out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Thought the 12z Euro was going to show something good at the end of it's run. System looks to shear out though. -EPO ridge tries to set up and gets mangled pretty quickly. It get torn down and rolled over even faster this run as compared to the 00Z. Classic strong Nino flexing its muscles here. There's a chance at something as this wave tries to move east and has some remnant Arctic air to work with (from the EPO breakdown), but other than that, it looks fugly in the weeklies (across the board). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 -EPO ridge tries to set up and gets mangled pretty quickly. It get torn down and rolled over even faster this run as compared to the 00Z. Classic strong Nino flexing its muscles here. There's a chance at something as this wave tries to move east and has some remnant Arctic air to work with (from the EPO breakdown), but other than that, it looks fugly in the weeklies (across the board). Today's weeklies? Aww man, you spoiled it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 -EPO ridge tries to set up and gets mangled pretty quickly. It get torn down and rolled over even faster this run as compared to the 00Z. Classic strong Nino flexing its muscles here. There's a chance at something as this wave tries to move east and has some remnant Arctic air to work with (from the EPO breakdown), but other than that, it looks fugly in the weeklies (across the board). I don't really know if you can necessarily credit the Nino with that pattern as much as just a lack of blocking to slow things down but just an opinion. I don't mind warming back up to average by mid December either. Just need to get a decent storm in there somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 I'm not really disappointed with the 12z Euro run at all honestly. This is the first time I had seen all of it. If it's really holding the energy back to the southwest too much at the moment then I look forward to seeing what evolves by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Euro Weeklies today...... They go through Dec 20th. +AO persists, PNA will probably hang around neutral once it reaches it although the control went -PNA. There is quite the disparity between the ensemble run and the control run so there may be a variety of solutions. The control has more ridging in the east and more troughing in the west. The ensemble actually doesn't look bad for our area, and probably looks better for those south and southwest of us. It looks like we'd see a warm period after the first part of December cool down, and then would probably get cooler as we would feel more influence from the southern stream around mid-late month, although I doubt there would be any real Arctic air unless the -EPO were to spike again (which does happen on the control). Temps and snowfall come out a bit later, will update then....... UPDATE: Control run snowfall is meh, but the ensemble snowfall makes it down to central AR. After the cold plunge at the end of Nov into early Dec, it generally looks to be around normal, maybe a bit above temp wise. The cold anomalies look to generally stay over the western half of NE, KS, OK, TX and points west of there. The control is warmer and would likely be quite toasty for here, with the coldest air being over the northwestern US and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Euro Weeklies today...... They go through Dec 20th. +AO persists, PNA will probably hang around neutral once it reaches it although the control went -PNA. There is quite the disparity between the ensemble run and the control run so there may be a variety of solutions. The control has more ridging in the east and more troughing in the west. The ensemble actually doesn't look bad for our area, and probably looks better for those south and southwest of us. It looks like we'd see a warm period after the first part of December cool down, and then would probably get cooler as we would feel more influence from the southern stream around mid-late month, although I doubt there would be any real Arctic air unless the -EPO were to spike again (which does happen on the control). Temps and snowfall come out a bit later, will update then....... UPDATE: Control run snowfall is meh, but the ensemble snowfall makes it down to central AR. After the cold plunge at the end of Nov into early Dec, it generally looks to be around normal, maybe a bit above temp wise. The cold anomalies look to generally stay over the western half of NE, KS, OK, TX and points west of there. The control is warmer and would likely be quite toasty for here, with the coldest air being over the northwestern US and west. I'm not disappointed with it really. There's a lot of hope there for quite a few different things to happen. It's definitely not a "Nino" December look that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 You know that what you described is pretty much December 2009 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Well, I like the pattern coming up as far as the favored precip track and all that, but there's nothing good about 4+ inches of rain in deer season. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Well that was a neat 12z GFS run. 1 slow moving cold airmass + dying trough + 1 tropical system from the Pacific = Probably a mix of precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Well that was a neat 12z GFS run. 1 slow moving cold airmass + dying trough + 1 tropical system from the Pacific = Probably a mix of precip: What in the world happened?!?! Oh my! I really had no idea. I've been really hooked up today at work. That's awesome. I'd take even a 1/4 of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Nov 30, 2006 anybody? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Nov 30, 2006 anybody? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A I'll order one of those. Hold the ice though. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I'm sure the setup is different but results were similar, maybe shifted a bit north of this forecast map. Flooding rains on the 30th quickly turned to heavy snows overnight. Great storm. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 I'm sure the setup is different but results were similar, maybe shifted a bit north of this forecast map. Flooding rains on the 30th quickly turned to heavy snows overnight. Great storm. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A I'll have to research it later but I think you're right. For some reason I don't remember that storm very well. That was a month after I turned 21 though. Lost a lot of memories from that time period. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Euro says no to the snow still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Darn the Euro! Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Was 06-07 a nino yr? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Yeah. It was an El Niño. I know now why I don't remember that storm or that year. The snow never made it to me at all that year. Fayetteville, AR recorded 0.5 inches of snow that winter. The record snowfall was at Tulsa. I don't want to repeat that winter. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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