JoMo Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 12z Euro continues the theme. It looks like it persists through Thanksgiving as well. The Euro drops the AO as well. Interesting run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 12z Euro continues the theme. It looks like it persists through Thanksgiving as well. The Euro drops the AO as well. Interesting run. I like where this is headed. I don't think it's all the way there yet but headed in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Also, it's not very often the Euro kicks it's own monthlies to the curb after a day. Lol. This is one time I expected it to though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Also, it's not very often the Euro kicks it's own monthlies to the curb after a day. Lol. This is one time I expected it to though. It was definitely quite a change, we'll see how long it sticks around though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Perfect place for it right now, just waiting on that north trend! haha.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 -EPO ridging doesn't look like it'll stick around long according to the latest Euro Ensembles. Storminess to return to Alaska and probably the GoA by the end of the month into early Dec. Also looks stormy over the pole. Should still deliver us some below normal air though at some point Thanksgiving week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 -EPO ridging doesn't look like it'll stick around long according to the latest Euro Ensembles. Storminess to return to Alaska and probably the GoA by the end of the month into early Dec. Also looks stormy over the pole. Should still deliver us some below normal air though at some point Thanksgiving week. So, thoughts right now on December? Torch or freeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 So, thoughts right now on December? Torch or freeze? It's a complete guess right now, but at this point, I'd lean towards probably normal to above normalish. It's possible we start out cooler, than see a warmup, and then get cooler again. December El Nino's are usually above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 14, 2015 Author Share Posted November 14, 2015 It's a complete guess right now, but at this point, I'd lean towards probably normal to above normalish. It's possible we start out cooler, than see a warmup, and then get cooler again. December El Nino's are usually above normal. True. They usually are. Hoping this one progresses like the '09 version though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Nice, more digital snow, this time on Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 15, 2015 Author Share Posted November 15, 2015 Nice, more digital snow, this time on Thanksgiving. We can dream right? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 We can dream right? :-) Yeah, I'm just happy it's actually showing it this early. The Euro control last night sure was cold thanks to the -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Yeah, I'm just happy it's actually showing it this early. The Euro control last night sure was cold thanks to the -EPO. Nice to see some fantasy snow ❄ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Nice to see some fantasy snow ❄ It is. If I remember correctly, the last couple of years were devoid of any fantasy snow this early and were generally boring. At least the fantasy snow gives some kind of hope that something may happen, as unlikely as it may be this time of year. JMA should update later today or tomorrow for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 This looks more like what we should be seeing in an El-Nino. JMA 3 month hasn't updated yet....... I'm excited to see the Euro Weeklies later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 This looks more like what we should be seeing in an El-Nino. JMA 3 month hasn't updated yet....... I'm excited to see the Euro Weeklies later! Nice. That huge azz ridge could retrograde west a little bit but that pattern has all the potential in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Euro weeklies have finally woke up to the El Nino and have more of a classic El Nino look as we head into and through December. They go out to Dec 17th today. After the ridge for the -EPO breaks down at the end of this month, the more classic looking Aleutian low starts forming. There is a signal of a southern stream in our part of the world, possibly to our south for a bit, but we'll see. +AO looks to remain, although it could dip negative at times. The PNA looks to go positive though. Temps and snowfall come in a bit later, so I'll check back in later....... EDIT: Temps look to be about average after the late Nov/Early Dec cold leaves. Not a lot of snowfall being shown in our area, but look out Gulf coast on the control, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 The JMA 3 month forecast is out. Looks a lot like the non-CFS v2 models. Aleutian Low, southern stream, etc... So it's the placement of these features that vary with some being farther north or south with the southern stream than the others. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/zpcmap.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Some more fantasy digital snow on the 06z GFS. Whew, I'm pooped from digging out from under all this fantasy snow. I think the GFS is pretty confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 Some more fantasy digital snow on the 06z GFS. Whew, I'm pooped from digging out from under all this fantasy snow. I think the GFS is pretty confused. OH my! I hope that could verify. I get absolutely smashed there. I like where pretty much everything is placed in the maps you posted in the previous post. If the Aleutian low wasn't tilted NW to SE I would be a little concerned but it appears that it would allow plenty of cold to drain by. It's almost game time now so here's to verifying! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Some more fantasy digital snow on the 06z GFS. Whew, I'm pooped from digging out from under all this fantasy snow. I think the GFS is pretty confused. GFS back to its old ways.. I see. Would be awesome to see something before Christmas though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Some fantasy snow showing up on the Euro now as well in the next 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 Some fantasy snow showing up on the Euro now as well in the next 15 days. Hmmm, going to have to check that one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Hmmm, going to have to check that one out. Looks like a couple frozen systems actually. One after hour 252 and the next around/after 324. Biggest amounts are down in Arkansas. The WxBell ECMWF 0.125° "Legacy Link" link still has snow maps for the control run. Also the "EPS Precipitation & MSLP" CONUS maps have all the ensemble snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 So that's the ensemble mean snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 So that's the ensemble mean snowfall? Which link? There is an ensemble mean snowfall map under the legacy link. The EPS Precipitation and MSLP link has snowfall amounts for each of the ensemble members + mean + control run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Which link? There is an ensemble mean snowfall map under the legacy link. The EPS Precipitation and MSLP link has snowfall amounts for each of the ensemble members + mean + control run. Yeah, I was talking about the legacy link. Pretty good signal for snow if you ask me. Pretty much guaranteed to be cold from what I could tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Well, got my 06z GFS fantasy snow shoveled out again this morning. Lol. If it keeps ending the runs like that I'm going to be tired by the time it does snow. :-) If you could draw my favorite types of snowstorms up on paper, the one it showed this morning is my favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Well, got my 06z GFS fantasy snow shoveled out again this morning. Lol. If it keeps ending the runs like that I'm going to be tired by the time it does snow. :-) If you could draw my favorite types of snowstorms up on paper, the one it showed this morning is my favorite. It's definitely a lot more active than the last 2 years already. At least it's giving more hope this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 If JB's old saying is correct, we could see a couple of blockbuster storms this winter. He always said what happens in November the winter will remember. We haven't had a lot of cold air yet but we're getting there. This last system delivered over 4" of rain in a lot of places in this region. So we are very active with system after system and the setup looks primed for the southern plains to mid-Miss valley. Doug's winter forecast due out next Monday. Everybody have a good day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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