on_wx Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Quiet year for storms in Ontario with only 6 tornadoes spread over 3 events. But, August 2 2015 was a prolific storm outbreak for much of Southern Ontario with widespread wind damage, hail up to golf ball size, and four tornadoes. August 2nd was also the first time since the August 20 2009 tornado outbreak, and only the 13th or 14th time since 1970, there has been two or more EF2 tornadoes on a single date in Ontario. May 30 2015 EF1 Brief touchdown Thorndale area, eastern Middlesex County Trees and one barn damaged. No tornado warning. June 22 2015 EF0 Brief touchdown Holmesville area, central Huron County Wagon thrown into side of barn, damage to trees. Tornado warning issued 23 minutes after the tornado August 2 2015 EF2 7km path Teviotdale to 6km ENE of Teviotdale, northwestern Wellington County Two homes damaged, two barns destroyed. OPP detachment and local business damaged. No tornado warning. EF2 5km path Lebanon to Conestogo Lake, central Wellington County Silos damaged or destroyed. One barn had its roof torn off. Crops flattened, sailboat thrown, and minor damage to homes. No tornado warning. EF1 2km path Marsville area, southern Dufferin County Barn damaged, outbuilding destroyed, trees snapped or uprooted. No tornado warning. EF1 1.7km path Millgrove, east central City of Hamilton Public works dome building destroyed, trees uprooted, minor damage to homes. No tornado warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 The lack of tornado warnings is really scary. Is this something Environment Canada is trying to work on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Can that be right about the lack of warnings? Is EC that far behind the curve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 The concerning part to me is the August 2nd event, those counties are not exactly in the middle of no where, they are highly populated counties near the 401. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 29, 2015 Author Share Posted August 29, 2015 It's fairly common for tornadoes to go unwarned in Ontario. Of the 19 tornadoes here in 2014, only two were preceded by a tornado warning with only 1 minute of warning for Angus before they were hit hard by a large EF2. Tornado warnings followed two other tornadoes. I did take a look back at the 80 tornadoes in Southern Ontario between 2006 and 2009 and found... Tornado Warning preceded: 19 Tornado Warning followed: 15 No Tornado Warning: 43 Unknown: 3 Still have to look up tornadoes 2010-2013 to see what was warned and what wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 29, 2015 Author Share Posted August 29, 2015 The concerning part to me is the August 2nd event, those counties are not exactly in the middle of no where, they are highly populated counties near the 401. Not too sure why the August 2 tornadoes weren't warned. TWN plus the twitter crowd were on top of the circulations as they were ongoing. EC did issue two tornado warnings earlier in the day for Huron and Bruce Counties, but nothing touched down. NWS Detroit also didn't warn their tornado on the same day, which makes a 100% miss rate for both Detroit and Toronto, and 100% false alarm rate for warnings issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 It's fairly common for tornadoes to go unwarned in Ontario. Of the 19 tornadoes here in 2014, only two were preceded by a tornado warning with only 1 minute of warning for Angus before they were hit hard by a large EF2. Tornado warnings followed two other tornadoes. I did take a look back at the 80 tornadoes in Southern Ontario between 2006 and 2009 and found... Tornado Warning preceded: 19 Tornado Warning followed: 15 No Tornado Warning: 43 Unknown: 3 Still have to look up tornadoes 2010-2013 to see what was warned and what wasn't. That is scary because you never know when the next 1985 event will come and unlike then, this time could end very badly as the GTA has expanded massively since 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Can that be right about the lack of warnings? Is EC that far behind the curve? Oh yes. I'm not sure if you remember the blanket warnings that the NWS office in Morristown used to issue, but essentially that's what EC is like, except across the whole country. Either that or there's nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 29, 2015 Author Share Posted August 29, 2015 That is scary because you never know when the next 1985 event will come and unlike then, this time could end very badly as the GTA has expanded massively since 1985. EC issues a lot of tornado warnings, but most turn out to be false alarms. They do try, but for some reason they miss a significant portion of them. Usually they include "this storm may produce isolated tornadoes" in a lot of severe thunderstorm warnings. When it comes to big events either they'll miss the prolific tornado, catch it, or issue blanket warnings. Hit or miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 I am speculating that the poor warning system in Canada is due to a combination of issues. Under-staffing, lack of proper training, inferior radar technology and lack of coverage, poor spotter network, and large expanses of sparsely populated areas all come to mind. That being said, they could focus their resources on the more highly populated areas and at least provide acceptable forecasts in those regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 The lack of tornado warnings is really scary. Is this something Environment Canada is trying to work on? In short, no. As previously stated, the performance I've seen from Environment Canada over the years as been nothing short of mind-boggling. A squall line of thunderstorms moves through that are garden variety, a severe thunderstorm warning comes up for the county that had the line move through 25 minutes ago...that's happened more than once. Can that be right about the lack of warnings? Is EC that far behind the curve? I'm even surprised at the miss rate. Its so bad that people have to rely on other sources like OTW, TWN mets on twitter, etc. Really if an amateur like many of us can detect and spot problem areas over University thought mets for a government agency, that needs to be cried over (with laughter). I'd like to ask EC "What the hell?" About them being unprepared for the next 1985 event, I think they are hoping that it will just never come so they won't have to sweat about it. Not a good plan. On the other hand they are good about warning for hook echoes on radar because its really easy to see it so unless its a unique profile that's hard to see, they probably won't miss a lone supercell with a violent tornado on it. "Under-staffing, lack of proper training, inferior radar technology and lack of coverage, poor spotter network, and large expanses of sparsely populated areas all come to mind." I think only 1 out of those reasons are the cause (lack of proper training). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christina311 Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I'm even surprised at the miss rate. Its so bad that people have to rely on other sources like OTW, TWN mets on twitter, etc. Really if an amateur like many of us can detect and spot problem areas over University thought mets for a government agency, that needs to be cried over (with laughter). I'd like to ask EC "What the hell?" I'm about as amateur as one can be and a few times this summer I saw something obvious on RadarScope and was just shocked that EC did nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 31, 2015 Author Share Posted August 31, 2015 I'm about as amateur as one can be and a few times this summer I saw something obvious on RadarScope and was just shocked that EC did nothing at all. We'll see a lot more of this with the public and media detecting tornadoes now that we have radarscope. In the past unless the circulation could be seen on US radar we didn't know it was there til reports of tornadoes cane in. June 22 is a good example with twitter in a firestorm with the hook and rotation over goderich plus the tornado that was live streamed. For some reason Environment Canada still didn't act. They ask to tweet reports using the provincial wx hash tags but they must not keep track as its happening. Also not clear if storm spotters call in since there were multiple on location as the tornado was in progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 "Under-staffing, lack of proper training, inferior radar technology and lack of coverage, poor spotter network, and large expanses of sparsely populated areas all come to mind." I think only 1 out of those reasons are the cause (lack of proper training). The inferior radar tech and coverage problems are definitely a cause as well. Even just putting a few WSR-88Ds or the like around the major population centres around the country would do a world of good with their range. The long-tracked Manitoba tornado this year and Elie/Pipestone in 2007 would be really ugly events themselves if they occurred in populated areas (like, say Brandon or Winnipeg, the two closest population centres in these cases respectively). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted September 2, 2015 Author Share Posted September 2, 2015 The inferior radar tech and coverage problems are definitely a cause as well. Even just putting a few WSR-88Ds or the like around the major population centres around the country would do a world of good with their range. The long-tracked Manitoba tornado this year and Elie/Pipestone in 2007 would be really ugly events themselves if they occurred in populated areas (like, say Brandon or Winnipeg, the two closest population centres in these cases respectively). They're upgrading the radar system AFAIK it'll include dual pol and 5 minute scans. King City is complete is Exeter is underway in Ontario. Not sure about other radars. Did you notice during the big MB tornado earlier this year, ec kept up with the "severe storm that is possibly producing a tornado" instead of indicating the confirmed threat of a very significant tornado? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted September 5, 2015 Author Share Posted September 5, 2015 Environment Canada adjusted the EF scale wind speeds, so the Teviotdale tornado is actually EF3 on the NWS scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 They're upgrading the radar system AFAIK it'll include dual pol and 5 minute scans. King City is complete is Exeter is underway in Ontario. Not sure about other radars. Did you notice during the big MB tornado earlier this year, ec kept up with the "severe storm that is possibly producing a tornado" instead of indicating the confirmed threat of a very significant tornado? Never really looked at the warnings from EC for that, but that is silly given there were many chasers on it confirming a large tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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