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A Summer September to remember


Ginx snewx

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So you're name is SnowMan and you want to start off winter with a flame thrower? I see. Still bitter about "only" getting 100" last winter?

That was my screen name from years ago.  There is a lot that changed for me...after last winter I have seen it all it seems like.  Plus I took up cycling, so I it sucks to see winter approaching.  I will get a trainer so I can ride in the house.  Who knows...I am sure as the first real storm approaches I will get excited again.

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Going to be a nice day today...lower dewpoints, lower temperatures....backdoor front slowly moving southwest.

Kev's days and days of 90s will be in jeopardy after 1 day.

BDL has a chance at 4 90 degree days over the next week. If all verify, that would make 8 since the 15th which I believe was his prediction, and makes the last third of the warm season impressive based on that one metric. Even if only half verify, that makes 6 which is still fairly rare.
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BDL has a chance at 4 90 degree days over the next week. If all verify, that would make 8 since the 15th which I believe was his prediction, and makes the last third of the warm season impressive based on that one metric. Even if only half verify, that makes 6 which is still fairly rar

 

Sorry, that might be true.  On twitter, he had 90-95 for the next week straight.

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BDL has a chance at 4 90 degree days over the next week. If all verify, that would make 8 since the 15th which I believe was his prediction, and makes the last third of the warm season impressive based on that one metric. Even if only half verify, that makes 6 which is still fairly rare.

 

Is it though? BDL averages 5-6 90+ days in Aug-Sep.

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Is it though? BDL averages 5-6 90+ days in Aug-Sep.

4.0 for all of August and <1 for Sep. If you're looking at the Aug 16-Dec 31 period, there was 1983 with something like 13, then 25 years out of 110 where 6+ had occurred from Aug 16 onward. Unless I miscalculated. I don't have the exact figures in front of me, but I imagine 8 days after Aug 15th would be about a once a decade occurrence.
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4.0 for all of August and <1 for Sep. If you're looking at the Aug 16-Dec 31 period, there was 1983 with something like 13, then 25 years out of 110 where 6+ had occurred from Aug 16 onward. Unless I miscalculated. I don't have the exact figures in front of me, but I imagine 8 days after Aug 15th would be about a once a decade occurrence.

 

I saw 4.6 and 1.1 for Aug-Sep in xmACIS, but that's a minor difference. If you're talking mid-month on then it's definitely more rare.

 

However, Ginxy is kind of right, it's more likely to be hot around 9/1 than it is the 20th to 25th or so for whatever reason. Just a quirk of the climate record so far.

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Yes...if I remember correctly it was a warmer than normal start.  i thought Dec 2006 was in the 50s...

 

Mildest Nov and mildest Dec in 122 years of record at the local coop.  2006 is the only calendar year with two months holding temp records warmest and/or coldest), much less two consecutive.  They did establsih cold records for Feb (2015) and Mar (2014) in the same 12-month period.  That was the most abrupt and thorough pattern switch in any winter I can recall.  Cherrypicking endpoints, the period Nov. 8 thru Jan 13 avg was +7.0 compared to my 17-yr avg, the period Jan 14 thru Mar 9 was -7.0.  (And temsp ran BN thru 3rd week of April, but not as drastic.)

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BDL has a chance at 4 90 degree days over the next week. If all verify, that would make 8 since the 15th which I believe was his prediction, and makes the last third of the warm season impressive based on that one metric. Even if only half verify, that makes 6 which is still fairly rare.

I thought BDL was already at 5 after yesterday.

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My post back on August 13 was predicting 10 days of 90+ in the next 30 days at BDL. 5 days have verified so far. I backed off a bit in a later post and said 7 looked more reasonable. Kevin went with 7-8, Dendrite 7+, and Ginx 5 and under. 2-4 days seem feasible between now and Sept 10th. Never underestimate the torch valley in a AN downslope looking pattern. We roast.

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My post back on August 13 was predicting 10 days of 90+ in the next 30 days at BDL. 5 days have verified so far. I backed off a bit in a later post and said 7 looked more reasonable. Kevin went with 7-8, Dendrite 7+, and Ginx 5 and under. 2-4 days seem feasible between now and Sept 10th. Never underestimate the torch valley in a AN downslope looking pattern. We roast.

BDL was at 90 and above for the 5 days, wonder how many hours.
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It's amazing to have this much ridging and the GFS and the GFSX both finding ways to put up climo results in the bottom of the atmosphere. 

 

594 DM heights build over across 3 days of the xtended GFS that I saw .. and the 850s barely eclipse 15c ?!  seems that's got to be an anomaly on some level.  What's odd, is that it's been happening all summer, too.  Heights have supported larger thickness plumes (and inherently warm layers...) but unlike the rest of the planet, we here in NA can't seem to ever maximize that potential. 

 

Hmm.

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BDL was at 90 and above for the 5 days, wonder how many hours.

Probably 5 hours. Brad Field has 90 tomorrow, 90 Thursday, then 90 Sunday, 90 Monday, and 90 Tuesday. Talk about cheap, but heading towards the top of some lists if we can verify even half of those days.

 

# 90+ days Aug 16-Dec 31 @BDL:

13 - 1983

  9 - 1973

  9 - 1953

  8 - 2010

  8 - 1961

  7 - 1937

  6 - 2009

  6 - 2002

  6 - 1991

  6 - 1959

  6 - 1948

  5 - 7 tied

  4 - 11 tied (includes 2015)

 

# 90+ days in September @BDL:

  9 - 1983

  6 - 1961

  4 - 2007

  4 - 1973

  4 - 1953

  4 - 1931

  4 - 1929

  4 - 1915

  4 - 1914

  3 - 5 tied

  2 - 13 tied

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