CT Valley Snowman Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Euro OP has another furnace for later Sunday - Tuesday back this way. Noticed some 97-98 popping up on the 2m temps for Labor Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Weather Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Yes...if I remember correctly it was a warmer than normal start. i thought Dec 2006 was in the 50s... Exactly as I recall. I was working at a X-country ski center in southern VT w/snow making and it was a waiting game for decent temps. Since then Decembers have been pretty good for snow making, even at 900'msl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Yes...if I remember correctly it was a warmer than normal start. i thought Dec 2006 was in the 50s... So you're name is SnowMan and you want to start off winter with a flame thrower? I see. Still bitter about "only" getting 100" last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 So you're name is SnowMan and you want to start off winter with a flame thrower? I see. Still bitter about "only" getting 100" last winter? That was my screen name from years ago. There is a lot that changed for me...after last winter I have seen it all it seems like. Plus I took up cycling, so I it sucks to see winter approaching. I will get a trainer so I can ride in the house. Who knows...I am sure as the first real storm approaches I will get excited again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Euro OP has another furnace for later Sunday - Tuesday back this way. Noticed some 97-98 popping up on the 2m temps for Labor Day. Another heat push next week with no rain insight! Endless summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 So you're name is SnowMan and you want to start off winter with a flame thrower? I see. Still bitter about "only" getting 100" last winter? Meh, we only need three weeks of winter now to get 100" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Going to be a nice day today...lower dewpoints, lower temperatures....backdoor front slowly moving southwest. Kev's days and days of 90s will be in jeopardy after 1 day. BDL has a chance at 4 90 degree days over the next week. If all verify, that would make 8 since the 15th which I believe was his prediction, and makes the last third of the warm season impressive based on that one metric. Even if only half verify, that makes 6 which is still fairly rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Meh, we only need three weeks of winter now to get 100" That's true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 BDL has a chance at 4 90 degree days over the next week. If all verify, that would make 8 since the 15th which I believe was his prediction, and makes the last third of the warm season impressive based on that one metric. Even if only half verify, that makes 6 which is still fairly rar Sorry, that might be true. On twitter, he had 90-95 for the next week straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Summer ends on a very warm note for sure after starting a bit slower. September looks to be AN thanks to first half furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 BDL has a chance at 4 90 degree days over the next week. If all verify, that would make 8 since the 15th which I believe was his prediction, and makes the last third of the warm season impressive based on that one metric. Even if only half verify, that makes 6 which is still fairly rare. Is it though? BDL averages 5-6 90+ days in Aug-Sep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2015 Author Share Posted September 1, 2015 Is it though? BDL averages 5-6 90+ days in Aug-Sep.I think he means from the 15th on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 It's not hard to see why the furnace. The good folks out in the PAC NW are breathing a sigh of relief. Massive trough there just rips off the heat from the desert SW and Plains, to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2015 Author Share Posted September 1, 2015 I am loving the warmth, beautiful day yesterday, today has started out a tad cool. Just got back from a totally empty beach walk and swim, man is the water warm. Back inland it's cooler in the shade than yesterday. Shaping up to be a fine Sept day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 I think he means from the 15th on That makes more sense. Interestingly though, there is a bit of a very late month max in 90+ degree days at BDL versus week 3 of the month. The 23rd has only 1 90+ degree day in the record, but the 28th has 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Is it though? BDL averages 5-6 90+ days in Aug-Sep.4.0 for all of August and <1 for Sep. If you're looking at the Aug 16-Dec 31 period, there was 1983 with something like 13, then 25 years out of 110 where 6+ had occurred from Aug 16 onward. Unless I miscalculated. I don't have the exact figures in front of me, but I imagine 8 days after Aug 15th would be about a once a decade occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 4.0 for all of August and <1 for Sep. If you're looking at the Aug 16-Dec 31 period, there was 1983 with something like 13, then 25 years out of 110 where 6+ had occurred from Aug 16 onward. Unless I miscalculated. I don't have the exact figures in front of me, but I imagine 8 days after Aug 15th would be about a once a decade occurrence. I saw 4.6 and 1.1 for Aug-Sep in xmACIS, but that's a minor difference. If you're talking mid-month on then it's definitely more rare. However, Ginxy is kind of right, it's more likely to be hot around 9/1 than it is the 20th to 25th or so for whatever reason. Just a quirk of the climate record so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Yes...if I remember correctly it was a warmer than normal start. i thought Dec 2006 was in the 50s... Mildest Nov and mildest Dec in 122 years of record at the local coop. 2006 is the only calendar year with two months holding temp records warmest and/or coldest), much less two consecutive. They did establsih cold records for Feb (2015) and Mar (2014) in the same 12-month period. That was the most abrupt and thorough pattern switch in any winter I can recall. Cherrypicking endpoints, the period Nov. 8 thru Jan 13 avg was +7.0 compared to my 17-yr avg, the period Jan 14 thru Mar 9 was -7.0. (And temsp ran BN thru 3rd week of April, but not as drastic.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 BDL has a chance at 4 90 degree days over the next week. If all verify, that would make 8 since the 15th which I believe was his prediction, and makes the last third of the warm season impressive based on that one metric. Even if only half verify, that makes 6 which is still fairly rare. I thought BDL was already at 5 after yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 My post back on August 13 was predicting 10 days of 90+ in the next 30 days at BDL. 5 days have verified so far. I backed off a bit in a later post and said 7 looked more reasonable. Kevin went with 7-8, Dendrite 7+, and Ginx 5 and under. 2-4 days seem feasible between now and Sept 10th. Never underestimate the torch valley in a AN downslope looking pattern. We roast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2015 Author Share Posted September 1, 2015 My post back on August 13 was predicting 10 days of 90+ in the next 30 days at BDL. 5 days have verified so far. I backed off a bit in a later post and said 7 looked more reasonable. Kevin went with 7-8, Dendrite 7+, and Ginx 5 and under. 2-4 days seem feasible between now and Sept 10th. Never underestimate the torch valley in a AN downslope looking pattern. We roast. BDL was at 90 and above for the 5 days, wonder how many hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 BDL had 2 89s as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 It's amazing to have this much ridging and the GFS and the GFSX both finding ways to put up climo results in the bottom of the atmosphere. 594 DM heights build over across 3 days of the xtended GFS that I saw .. and the 850s barely eclipse 15c ?! seems that's got to be an anomaly on some level. What's odd, is that it's been happening all summer, too. Heights have supported larger thickness plumes (and inherently warm layers...) but unlike the rest of the planet, we here in NA can't seem to ever maximize that potential. Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 BDL was at 90 and above for the 5 days, wonder how many hours. Definitely cheap 90's for several but it counts. Not dramatic, memorable heat but heat nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2015 Author Share Posted September 1, 2015 Definitely cheap 90's for several but it counts. Not dramatic, memorable heat but heat nonetheless.no doubt. Nothing earth shattering just enough to keep the pool warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Definitely cheap 90's for several but it counts. Not dramatic, memorable heat but heat nonetheless. It is what it is. On the climo sheet, its a 90F high. When looking back at BDL climo 90+ days, who knows how many of those are "cheap" or "real" . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 severe season still isn't over yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 I moved the obs and banter posts to the banter thread. Let's keep this one about the pattern going forward...even if we're in the doldrums for the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 BDL was at 90 and above for the 5 days, wonder how many hours. Probably 5 hours. Brad Field has 90 tomorrow, 90 Thursday, then 90 Sunday, 90 Monday, and 90 Tuesday. Talk about cheap, but heading towards the top of some lists if we can verify even half of those days. # 90+ days Aug 16-Dec 31 @BDL: 13 - 1983 9 - 1973 9 - 1953 8 - 2010 8 - 1961 7 - 1937 6 - 2009 6 - 2002 6 - 1991 6 - 1959 6 - 1948 5 - 7 tied 4 - 11 tied (includes 2015) # 90+ days in September @BDL: 9 - 1983 6 - 1961 4 - 2007 4 - 1973 4 - 1953 4 - 1931 4 - 1929 4 - 1915 4 - 1914 3 - 5 tied 2 - 13 tied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Friday and Saturday look awesome. Point n Click has me at 73 for Friday, 79 for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.