forkyfork Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 that rain axis could easily come west with a 500mb pattern like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Fun GFS run there. "Drought" to hydro issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Wow, so much to consider. After weeks of beautiful weather so much going on. Drought cancel for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Steve... Want to make a SOS thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 canadian looks like we need an arK thread lol Steve... Want to make a SOS thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 12-18.. Lollis to 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 4Km NAM is a widespread SOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 so much for boring weather that changed fast!great rains mid week possible tropical trouble this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Oy.. Look at that ct valley shadow. Showing up early this year. A painful reminder of winter life in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Flowing water on Mars! Pretty cool. So that's who has been stealing our QPF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Oy.. Look at that ct valley shadow. Showing up early this year. A painful reminder of winter life in the valley. That's not a valley shadow shown by the Nam... It looks more like the conceptual model for a PRE as described by Bosart and Carr 1978. Basically a dual qpe max, one to the NW associated with U/L forcing near the fropa, another displaced SE in a baroclinic zone with tropical moisture streaming in. Later, a mesolow may form and transition with upper level support to a stronger synoptic low and yield a more even distribution downstream in ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 That's not a valley shadow shown by the Nam... It looks more like the conceptual model for a PRE as described by Bosart and Carr 1978. Basically a dual qpe max, one to the NW associated with U/L forcing near the fropa, another displaced SE in a baroclinic zone with tropical moisture streaming in. Later, a mesolow may form and transition with upper level support to a stronger synoptic low and yield a more even distribution downstream in ME. This setup screams PRE. Looking forward to trying to forecast that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 This setup screams PRE. Looking forward to trying to forecast that lol Huge error potential there, slow down/speed up the front... move the TS 50 miles one way or another... somebody gets swamped, a couple towns over cries bust.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 28, 2015 Share Posted September 28, 2015 Huge error potential there, slow down/speed up the front... move the TS 50 miles one way or another... somebody gets swamped, a couple towns over cries bust.... Yeah definitely...this is going to move around on the models right up to Hour 0. One run you may get 2", the next run 10", then 3.5", then 1.75" haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 OK.. I give.. What is PRE? Google not helpful on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 OK.. I give.. What is PRE? Google not helpful on this one. Predecessor Rain Event http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/research/galarneau_etal_2010_mwr.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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