powderfreak Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Wind is light SW and dew dropped from 61 to 55. There was simply no support for 90 degrees except for in your head. Yeah that dew drop shows they did mix out pretty well, but the airmass just didn't have it in it. Not sure another 10mph would've been enough to downslope them to 90F. It doesn't really work like that...can't say if the wind was 30mph they'd be 92F, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 GFS still bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Euro is frosty again for next weekend. GFS naso much. We'll probably end up somewhere in the middle with a glancing shot from the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Next week may be a glancing shot, but have to watch the tendency to develop coastal lows off the SE coast. Pattern is classic for those, but the track is questionable. Signal is there on all models..so something to watch. 6z GFS in clown range is an absolute clobbering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 The band will snap or sooner or later and the precip will flow. Don't mind a warm, dry September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2015 Author Share Posted September 18, 2015 Next week may be a glancing shot, but have to watch the tendency to develop coastal lows off the SE coast. Pattern is classic for those, but the track is questionable. Signal is there on all models..so something to watch. 6z GFS in clown range is an absolute clobbering. now that is ASS weather but NB Mon 09/28 18Z 48 ° NNE 25 NE 54 ENE 63 0.71 Tue 09/29 06Z 54 ° NE 20 NE 47 ENE 56 0.72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 now that is ASS weather but NB Mon 09/28 18Z 48 ° NNE 25 NE 54 ENE 63 0.71 Tue 09/29 06Z 54 ° NE 20 NE 47 ENE 56 0.72 Synoptic Scooter approves though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2015 Author Share Posted September 18, 2015 Synoptic Scooter approves though. i know its silly and all but I'll tell ya it was pretty cool to see even a tad of blue on this map. I mean, probably won't happen, but the time to track possible snow systems is really not that far off, especially for the North peeps. I am positive EEK totally endorses this message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2015 Author Share Posted September 18, 2015 I mean with this fantasy setup the GFS puts out , east slopes could be looking at first picnic table level flakes, some fun anyways to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Yep..and can see the two features at work driving precip. The firehose and some LL frontogenesis, and then the mid level stuff near NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Anyways, clown range...but support for something offshore is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 I mean with this fantasy setup the GFS puts out , east slopes could be looking at first picnic table level flakes, some fun anyways to look at. How much for Lunenburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 How much for Lunenburg?Whatever it is, North Haven will beat it by 1.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2015 Author Share Posted September 18, 2015 Well and so we begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Mad battle between the seasons raging on across multiple cycles and model types ... flipping wildly between summer and cold fall events! Which does one believe? ...Oh, probably the coldest aligning with the usual assortments of cherry-picked reasons why. The 00z keeps the summery vibe (and yes, despite the 2 to 3 day polar high thing) pretty much right out to the end. It's mid levels support warmer departures being off-set by lower tropospheric features - a plague that has marred much of the summer. Contrasting, the 06z version with that intense dink and dunk cold trough cutting off quintessentially under that same polar high, ...also made stronger by circumstance of a deeper negative anomaly, the backside of such creates an uber confluence interval that charges that surface +PP quite substantially. This run is a text-book example of positive feed-backs. The steeper height gradient diving through Ontario, circumstantially causes backside confluence to charge the high, which in turn causes stiffer easterlies in the lower thickness levels to impinge into a cooling BL by said high over land, and the overall intense baroclinic result being thus 2ndary to those preceding events, goes on to stem-wound the first nor-easter of this fledgling cool season. In way, it all roots back to whether that flow handling in the nearer terms is correct; because it is those that parlay into all these events. Firstly, that is an exciting and "hopeful" solution, ...but it looks utterly false to me. There is just too much up-down, geopotential gradient spanning exceptionally short distance there.. Shortened mid and U/A wave length flow constructs typically occur in weaker gradients, because balance wind velocities in free air and the curvature of the Earth and all those other crazy differentials and integrals in the equations that describe the physics of atmospheric motion ...blah blah blah... requires longer wave lengths to host those kind of velocities. Be that as it may, the GFS' algorithms (one would hope), prooobably instruct physical equations in sufficient measure that whatever variables were fed in, then propagated out in time (fractals notwithstanding) gave rise to a scenario that challenges these conventions. Seeing as oddities do occur that push extremes, and we know this 06z GFS solution is not IMpossible, just should be deemed uber less likely... fun to watch (maybe). Then there is the basic arguments regarding modeling continuity. That's a pretty dramatic shift between the 00z and 06z in that entire SE Can/NW Atlantic sector. There is vague similarity for that polar high interval, but over-shadowing synoptic evolutions provi ... You know what, who cares? I will say that the Euro and GGEM look very, very typically playing into their respective biases re the strength of that diving trough. I've noticed it seems to always be on D7 ...give or take a tick or two. But more so than that, these runs (as we've hammered relentlessly in the past) love to carve out new galaxy coring super-massive black holes in that region of SE Canada, so painfully obviously, as to challenge the patience and mood of the observer. Somebody...somewhere, with influence up the latter of these model's sources, must be aware of this. Meanwhile, it is not climatologically unsound to get a pig polar high nowadays... In fact, one should almost expect it when going over year to year synoptic tendencies. So loud is that signal, that part of me wants to just throw hands. Heh. well, it's not all that. I think there WILL be a +PP region passing over or N of our latitude, but I haven't seen anything in the last 24 hours just yet that offers much confidence as to what exactly it will mean sensibly... And the fact that two days ago, the whole sort of scenario was on D8/9, and now it is on D8/9... that's annoying too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2015 Author Share Posted September 18, 2015 Op runs post day 5 are useless for synoptics, sensible weather. ENS are somewhat better but only in a 5h take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Op runs post day 5 are useless for synoptics, sensible weather. ENS are somewhat better but only in a 5h take. I predict we'll have a meltdown or two before 12/1 when a 216 hour snowstorm on the Euro for 2 runs disappears. Happens every season when the snow-starved try to rush winter in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 I don't think the drumbeats are started, but at least they are being brought out of the equipment van. In the meantime, we COC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Meanwhile...seein' as the PNA turns back on per CDC - The tele season is opening up with primarily a warm signal from both American agencies. Not overwhelming, but just on mass. There are a few distracting members in the mean of the frays...but this 'somewhat' hearkens to my sentiments yesterday not to rush out the -PNAP tendency to the flow, because the correction heading into nearer terms may favor more progressivity and somewhat/modest higher heights than average E of 100 W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 I predict we'll have a meltdown or two before 12/1 when a 216 hour snowstorm on the Euro for 2 runs disappears. Happens every season when the snow-starved try to rush winter in. Personally, I'm just feeling rain-starved right now. I'd really like a gusty, cold rainstorm for an entire weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Brett in the house....season is def. changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Personally, I'm just feeling rain-starved right now. I'd really like a gusty, cold rainstorm for an entire weekend. Next weekend might be your time...with a little luck. There's been a definite signal for a coastal offshore. Just a matter if it gets close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Brett in the house....season is def. changing. Can't you see it? The green in the leaves on the trees is no longer fresh, but now begins to ache toward warmer hues. The days grow shorter and the sting of summer heat has all but given up the ghost. Farmer's Almanac predictions are being cited by idiots, and long term seasonal projections are being drawn up by the other kind of idiots. Jerry keeps an vigilant but pointless eye on the "burgeoning cryosphere" while Tip authors War and Peace about essentially nothing, advocating grains of salt in a message seemingly directed at himself. Bitches gettin' anxious for frostier days. Soon, you'll be off ignore, and Kevin will be back on. The game will be afoot. The cliche, I believe, is "the more things change, the more things stay the same." But for now... I would just like some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Can't you see it? The green in the leaves on the trees is no longer fresh, but now begins to ache toward warmer hues. The days grow shorter and the sting of summer heat has all but given up the ghost. Farmer's Almanac predictions are being cited by idiots, and long term seasonal projections are being drawn up by the other kind of idiots. Jerry keeps an vigilant but pointless eye on the "burgeoning cryosphere" while Tip authors War and Peace about essentially nothing, advocating grains of salt in a message seemingly directed at himself. Bitches gettin' anxious for frostier days. Soon, you'll be off ignore, and Kevin will be back on. The game will be afoot. The cliche, I believe, is "the more things change, the more things stay the same." But for now... I would just like some rain. :lmao: Perfect. Sig material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 MOS has 34 for HIE and BML Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 MOS has 34 for HIE and BML Monday morning. GWDLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2015 Author Share Posted September 18, 2015 Can't you see it? The green in the leaves on the trees is no longer fresh, but now begins to ache toward warmer hues. The days grow shorter and the sting of summer heat has all but given up the ghost. Farmer's Almanac predictions are being cited by idiots, and long term seasonal projections are being drawn up by the other kind of idiots. Jerry keeps an vigilant but pointless eye on the "burgeoning cryosphere" while Tip authors War and Peace about essentially nothing, advocating grains of salt in a message seemingly directed at himself. Bitches gettin' anxious for frostier days. Soon, you'll be off ignore, and Kevin will be back on. The game will be afoot. The cliche, I believe, is "the more things change, the more things stay the same." But for now... I would just like some rain. lol, banana HP !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 egh... back to more progression on the 12z GFS with the wild wind 06z feature... damn, that would be just the sort of deal to alleviate monotony and gin our collective drool for what's in store. ...no doubt, another maddening warm up. Frankly, I'm looking forward to the sentimental journey back through the smell of fallen leaves in crisply chilled air. Although, I can't say I mind a warn evening for Hallow's Eve - jeez, 45 days away. Goes to show you just how banal things have been. anyway, commiseration aside, that's definitely back to a more frosty looking polar high, should it time right. As is, that sucker is progressive so quick that it may not allow enough slow down for decoupling... I think the take away though is that the quiescence cage of conditions we're enjoying this early to mid September looking a bit more rattled in the late middle and extended range. interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 MOS has 34 for HIE and BML Monday morning. It keeps getting lower. 38F for CON now. We step down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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