Lava Rock Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 That d9 monster high has frost written all over it up here. GFS and Euro have it and with ens support too.Maybe I won't oversees the lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2015 Author Share Posted September 17, 2015 The state average summer departures (including first order and co-ops): CT +0.45 RI +0.34 MA +0.20 NH -0.06 VT -0.13 ME -0.53 great stat a normal summer, dry in spots wet in others due to convection, pretty meh in the WX department but fantastic in the play/vacation dept. We don't toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Not sure what's so funny. Yeah it's way out there, but it'll be right around the time of my avg first 32F. We can get cold shots in an otherwise warm pattern. I'm not locking it in or anything, but there's plenty of support. Don't worry about your hydrangeas...you'll be 45F on top of your hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Not sure what's so funny. Yeah it's way out there, but it'll be right around the time of my avg first 32F. We can get cold shots in an otherwise warm pattern. I'm not locking it in or anything, but there's plenty of support. Don't worry about your hydrangeas...you'll be 45F on top of your hill. Looks frosty to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Not sure what's so funny. Yeah it's way out there, but it'll be right around the time of my avg first 32F. We can get cold shots in an otherwise warm pattern. I'm not locking it in or anything, but there's plenty of support. Don't worry about your hydrangeas...you'll be 45F on top of your hill. at 9 days out that could turn into 73/50 type stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Nah, we will be prone to those cool highs building down in this flow. Bootleg cold, but could be enough for interior low spots to frost. You don't need much heading later into September with dry air and longer nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Nah, we will be prone to those cool highs building down in this flow. Bootleg cold, but could be enough for interior low spots to frost. You don't need much heading later into September with dry air and longer nights. Bootleg or not... the shift of the overall appeal on the 00z runs cannot be denied, and is decidedly more difficult to visualize even a rad nights getting it done - as you intimate. But, it's one cycle of runs ... may flip right back just the same - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Bootleg or not... the shift of the overall appeal on the 00z runs cannot be denied, and is decidedly more difficult to visualize even a rad nights getting it done - as you intimate. But, it's one cycle of runs ... may flip right back just the same - I dunno man...really only the OP Euro looked marginal. The 00z GFS was downright frigid and so was the Canadian. The ensembles haven't changed much. I won't really take it seriously though until its inside of 5 days anyway. This is typical D9-10 clownrange stuff. It could still end up totally different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Bootleg or not... the shift of the overall appeal on the 00z runs cannot be denied, and is decidedly more difficult to visualize even a rad nights getting it done - as you intimate. But, it's one cycle of runs ... may flip right back just the same - All the models still have a GOAK trough with AN heights in SE Canada with lower height across the SE. That's a classic pattern to drive in cooler air at times with high pressure...but tough to really get a deep Autumnal trough in here for a longer period of time. I guess that's how I view it. Models also show some ridging into Greenland which also helps bring down cooler air to the northeast...but it's kind of bootleg with highs building down with 560+ thicknesses. The trough next week with a cold source region in SE Canada may have some meat. On the other hand, this isn't a heat pattern either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 I dunno man...really only the OP Euro looked marginal. The 00z GFS was downright frigid and so was the Canadian. The ensembles haven't changed much. I won't really take it seriously though until its inside of 5 days anyway. This is typical D9-10 clownrange stuff. It could still end up totally different. I didn't see much that was "frigid" in the 00z surface depiction, or the 500mb. And it was certainly 'not as' cool as the previous runs earlier in the day. But perhaps it's just a difference of opinion. I agree on not taking seriously - like I said, it's one cycle and the models could flip back. No question that the GGEM changed, and the Euro was less aggressive... and I was discussing the overall model appeal in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 I didn't see much that was "frigid" in the 00z surface depiction, or the 500mb. And it was certainly 'not as' cool as the previous runs earlier in the day. But perhaps it's just a difference of opinion. I agree on not taking seriously - like I said, it's one cycle and the models could flip back. No question that the GGEM changed, and the Euro was less aggressive... and I was discussing the overall model appeal in the first place. I thought this was pretty darn cold: High pressure just to the north and 2C at 850 south of the pike. That's pretty frosty I'd think. Hard freezes for sure in some spots of CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2015 Author Share Posted September 17, 2015 I thought this was pretty darn cold: High pressure just to the north and 2C at 850 south of the pike. That's pretty frosty I'd think. Hard freezes for sure in some spots of CNE/NNE. Dewpoints in the 20's is usually a great indicator under HP for first frost freezes, will change but you are spot on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 I didn't see much that was "frigid" in the 00z surface depiction, or the 500mb. And it was certainly 'not as' cool as the previous runs earlier in the day. But perhaps it's just a difference of opinion. I agree on not taking seriously - like I said, it's one cycle and the models could flip back. No question that the GGEM changed, and the Euro was less aggressive... and I was discussing the overall model appeal in the first place. Looks like frost on the Tippy of the weenie to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Looks like frost on the Tippy of the weenie to me nice... Yeah, Will, it 'looks' chilly as is, but the point I made that is apparently being missed is that it trended milder. Also...adding to that, some of the other model types (regardless of their dependability/bias) were much warmer at that. AND, I said all models combined. But again again again, it could easily come back with more cold "panache" on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Dry . Drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Dry . Drought I like you better when you're plastered to the lawn thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 I like you better when you're plastered to the lawn thread.Plaster one on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 I thought this was pretty darn cold: High pressure just to the north and 2C at 850 south of the pike. That's pretty frosty I'd think. Hard freezes for sure in some spots of CNE/NNE. HP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Plaster one on this I was in Tolland the other day and a little birdie told me that your lawn has more bare spots this year..kind of doubted the veracity of your 1000' claim, too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 I was in Tolland the other day and a little birdie told me that your lawn has more bare spots this year..kind of doubted the veracity of your 1000' claim, too...Bare spots no. It's very thick.Burned out and torched absolutely. Glad you were stalking mi casa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 late next week has somewhat of an intriguing look, perhaps some type of tropical entity getting forced underneath the blocking ridge and possibly trying to recurve up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2015 Author Share Posted September 17, 2015 late next week has somewhat of an intriguing look, perhaps some type of tropical entity getting forced underneath the blocking ridge and possibly trying to recurve up the coast. or sub tropical, has that look/feel for sure, welcome to cutoff season #2 peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Looks like 88 at BDL will do it. Close but with calm wind not enough down sloping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 We might end up escaping next week completely dry, but you honestly can't take a look at the H5 maps an the activity over the tropical Atlantic and at least not be a little bit suspicious . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Looks like 88 at BDL will do it. Close but with calm wind not enough down sloping Wind is light SW and dew dropped from 61 to 55. There was simply no support for 90 degrees except for in your head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Wind is light SW and dew dropped from 61 to 55. There was simply no support for 90 degrees except for in your head.Exactly.. If winds weren't near calm they easily would have hit it. 88 degrees with a mid a mid March sun angle and no wind is very very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Yeah because it's been such a robust tropical season. And Ninos are know for east coast hits. Of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Exactly.. If winds weren't near calm they easily would have hit it. 88 degrees with a mid a mid March sun angle and no wind is very very impressive They were never progged to be strong. 90 was a stretch. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Exactly.. If winds weren't near calm they easily would have hit it. 88 degrees with a mid a mid March sun angle and no wind is very very impressive Exactly, all the information pointed to limited mixing and temps in the 80's and you called for easily 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Yeah because it's been such a robust tropical season. And Ninos are know for east coast hits. Of course Hurricane Andrew and hurricane Bob were El Nino years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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