Whineminster Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 So no more record breaking high temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 hey Larry Deal With It -Cosgrove Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 15, 2015 Author Share Posted September 15, 2015 Deal With It -Cosgrove wrong one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 The models were interesting in the day 10 or so time. They retro the trough near AK into the GOAK and pump up a ridge out in the Rockies and Plains. Forces a nice cool shot here and maybe a cutoff low. The GFS tries a Sandy redux lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Hope so but based on the weeklies, I'm not convinced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Euro op showing some decent rain around Day 7,8 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Hope so but based on the weeklies, I'm not convinced Nobody said it was a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 This warmth is impressive. Second warmest first half of September on record up here, beat only by September 1947. Yesterday was beautiful at 80/55 but that was +10 in the means. What's telling about how warm it has been (+8 in the means) is that the normal low right now is 46F. The coldest temp this month is 47F so far at MVL. Last year it was 34F with frost on this date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 This warmth is impressive. Second warmest first half of September on record up here, beat only by September 1947. Yesterday was beautiful at 80/55 but that was +10 in the means. What's telling about how warm it has been (+8 in the means) is that the normal low right now is 46F. The coldest temp this month is 47F so far at MVL. Last year it was 34F with frost on this date. GFS still shows first frost potential in the 26/27th time frame. Usual grain of salt warnings are magnified by the depiction of this being followed by what appear to be two tropical storms. First storm is actually moving SE to NW and plows into E CT in the next frame Second, weaker storm then crawls up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 The rubber band is stretching stretching stretching. At some point it snaps back the other way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 This warmth is impressive. Second warmest first half of September on record up here, beat only by September 1947. Yesterday was beautiful at 80/55 but that was +10 in the means. What's telling about how warm it has been (+8 in the means) is that the normal low right now is 46F. The coldest temp this month is 47F so far at MVL. Last year it was 34F with frost on this date. Had 28 last year on 9/15. Lowest so far this year is 43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 The rubber band is stretching stretching stretching. At some point it snaps back the other way Or is this the "snaps back" from earlier this year? lol. This could be regression to the mean from the cold first half of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Had 28 last year on 9/15. Lowest so far this year is 43. Yeah our lowest so far is 47F. That's pretty darn sad for a radiating mountain valley in NNE through mid-September. You have a good data set, what's the warmest min you've ever had through September 16th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Yeah our lowest so far is 47F. That's pretty darn sad for a radiating mountain valley in NNE through mid-September. You have a good data set, what's the warmest min you've ever had through September 16th? Prior to this year, 39 in 1999 and 2010. Six of 18 years have had frost by then, including 4 sub-30 mornings (28 in 2001 and last year is coolest), and two others had first frost on 9/17. Average coolest morning over 17 yr (1998-2014) is 33.5. Edit: Slight chance to go sub-40 early next week, but the stuff showing at day 10 looks to be much the cooler. (Assuming it doesn't go away like a couple of such modeled cooldowns have done already.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Euro op south with the rain mid next week. That was by itself anyway with no ensemble support. We dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Euro op south with the rain mid next week. That was by itself anyway with no ensemble support. We dry It gets us wet actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 It gets us wet actually. But south from 00z..no support. We dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 The overall pattern is kind of strange, Basically after this week, it's lower heights off of British Columbia. This leads to a broad zonal flow overall with higher than normal heights in SE Canada. However, heights across the SE are low. This is why we are seeing those weird cutoffs to the south. So, benign and overall and AN temps it seems...but maybe a few cutoff lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 But south from 00z..no support. We dry The mean on the ensemble also has QPF. I don't buy dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 But south from 00z..no support. We dry Just so we are clear, you were expecting a system beyond day 7 to be exactly the same from run to run. Got it thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 The mean on the ensemble also has QPF. I don't buy dry. Just wait another 60 days....you'll have to flip positions and post about how the models are not as snowy/wet as some think. I just can't wait to actually have something worth checking the models for, haha. You know, those days when you actually look at 00z/6z/12z/18z to see what they have to say. Now its like run a loop of a 00z or 12z model once a day and then hit the snooze button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Just wait another 60 days....you'll have to flip positions and post about how the models are not as snowy/wet as some think. I just can't wait to actually have something worth checking the models for, haha. You know, those days when you actually look at 00z/6z/12z/18z to see what they have to say. Now its like run a loop of a 00z or 12z model once a day and then hit the snooze button. I agree. Summer is just so freaking boring. I enjoy synoptics more than anything else really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 I agree. Summer is just so freaking boring. I enjoy synoptics more than anything else really. Especially a summer like this..Above normal with virtually no storms or precip.. Just the most mundane summer we've ever had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Especially a summer like this..Above normal with virtually no storms or precip.. Just the most mundane summer we've ever had Summer is boring in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Especially a summer like this..Above normal with virtually no storms or precip.. Just the most mundane summer we've ever had I keep seeing references (not just yours) to an AN summer. Well, maybe in some places. The local coop sites were about -1 for met summer thanks to the cool June. Being about +6 so far this month probably puts them within +/- 0.1F of their norms for June 1 thru Sept 15. With precip about 110% of avg for that period and no noteworthy events, this summer has ranked high on the blandest of the bland chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 It's more the second half of the summer really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 I keep seeing references (not just yours) to an AN summer. Well, maybe in some places. The local coop sites were about -1 for met summer thanks to the cool June. Being about +6 so far this month probably puts them within +/- 0.1F of their norms for June 1 thru Sept 15. With precip about 110% of avg for that period and no noteworthy events, this summer has ranked high on the blandest of the bland chart. The state average summer departures (including first order and co-ops): CT +0.45 RI +0.34 MA +0.20 NH -0.06 VT -0.13 ME -0.53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Anyone else see this odd 12z GFS fantasy range soaker? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015091612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_42.png http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_360_precip_ptot.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 That d9 monster high has frost written all over it up here. GFS and Euro have it and with ens support too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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