weatherwiz Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 i'd be willing to bet, once we get rid of this ridge, a trough of the same amplitude will set it...there fore we will go from summer to fall in the blink of an eye Potentially...you would at least think that would be the case. Thing right now though is there is a ton of ridging up north and such and doesn't look like a whole ton of room right now for major troughing and colder air to develop. Even if the ridging breaks down we may just see zonal like flow and seasonal weather. You do though have to wonder about good rain chances at least moving into September...hopefully we ca get a decent front to come through and spark convection but the pattern has a dry look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 i'd be willing to bet, once we get rid of this ridge, a trough of the same amplitude will set it...there fore we will go from summer to fall in the blink of an eyeOr we'll go from a torch cold season to a miserable warm season 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Or we'll go from a torch cold season to a miserable warm season 2016. why must you always be a debbie downer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Yeah but the MOS has been nicking at the warmth, and the synoptic depictions keep finding these little dents and derbles in the ridge to try anything at last resort to not make it unremarkable... Makes sense in a heavily tempered summer I guess - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 Yeah but the MOS has been nicking at the warmth, and the synoptic depictions keep finding these little dents and derbles in the ridge to try anything at last resort to not make it unremarkable... Makes sense in a heavily tempered summer I guess - If it happens to be convectively active in the upper mid-west it's definitely plausible to get debris crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 If it happens to be convectively active in the upper mid-west it's definitely plausible to get debris crap There's that ... but I think it more follows from the fact that WAR has been over forecasted by models all season. The ridge ...yeah, it's trying to come east and envelope us, but it's really more like WAR has a shear axis/permanent dent in it, where it quite plausibly signifies a failure of the ridge to come far enough E to where we are not shunning the full heat from getting here. It's failure to WAR - specifically - that's cooked this summer. hah, failed to do so is perhaps more apropos - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 29, 2015 Author Share Posted August 29, 2015 There's that ... but I think it more follows from the fact that WAR has been over forecasted by models all season. The ridge ...yeah, it's trying to come east and envelope us, but it's really more like WAR has a shear axis/permanent dent in it, where it quite plausibly signifies a failure of the ridge to come far enough E to where we are not shunning the full heat from getting here. It's failure to WAR - specifically - that's cooked this summer. hah, failed to do so is perhaps more apropos - seems to me it was a very nice summer for all, everyones fetishes were realized, some COC, some HHH, some severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 29, 2015 Share Posted August 29, 2015 There's that ... but I think it more follows from the fact that WAR has been over forecasted by models all season. The ridge ...yeah, it's trying to come east and envelope us, but it's really more like WAR has a shear axis/permanent dent in it, where it quite plausibly signifies a failure of the ridge to come far enough E to where we are not shunning the full heat from getting here. It's failure to WAR - specifically - that's cooked this summer. hah, failed to do so is perhaps more apropos - This looks to be a bit different no....I mean we're not really looking at a WAR ridging here...if anything it seems like a trough developing in the western Atlantic with the crest of the main ridging occurring from the MS Valley up through OV and into central Canada. Looks like some weak troughing out west will help to pump up heights here along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 We mat start to see some cooler intrusions after this furnace ridge breaks down. Most models develop higher heights out west, and we also need to see how these rare 3 Cat IV storms will affect the pattern going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 We mat start to see some cooler intrusions after this furnace ridge breaks down. Most models develop higher heights out west, and we also need to see how these rare 3 Cat IV storms will affect the pattern going forward. gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png I've been noticing more -10 C plumes invading the 70th parallel @ extended range depictions have begun inserting particularly during this last week's worth of runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 seems to me it was a very nice summer for all, everyones fetishes were realized, some COC, some HHH, some severe. Sensibly, ...perhaps, but the HHH part of that description? Not so much - was pretty wan. Given to the status of "Earth" ...with GW, what's gone on abroad with these record heat waves, and apparently unstoppable rise in monthly means that keeps resulting, HHH was mild to put it nicely. If the summer was really that fairly distributed, the HHH aspect would have been more extreme - sorry - HHH fetishes were left with something to be desired. And that's statistically measurable anyway, because I'm fairly certain any officiated heat waves were barely crossing the tape of qualification - inched in not very convincingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 A lot of models/ens have been hinting at the first fall-like airmass around the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Weak backdoor, as discussed by previous AFD out of KTAN is evidenced on the 12z NAM for Tuesday, but I think it may fail given to the larger picture synoptics. This isn't April, and those heights building in for mid -week might just bully that feature to a wash out. We'll see... It could also just be relegated to the shore/NE Mass coast, where it's quite warm not too far W-S Beverly Mass...maybe Lawerence .. I bet Cape Ann is delicious weather if that shows up. I lived out at the end of that Penn. back in 1985-1986, and can still hear seagull calls amid the gentle din of wave action over rocks and shores. The sound of bells on harbored boats, that occasional dong off when wake or waves lift them briefly up and down. You know, if you ever have a chance to have a personal moment of raging appreciation ... spend it out on one of the wharfs around Rockport, perhaps Bear Skin Neck, during the winter. When tourism factor is removed and the township quiets to the dull roar of a mere 7,000 residence too afraid to sample the elements, that's when the true splendor of that surrounding pops. Actually, anytime after the end of August, when academia mandates rich families return to their homes to send their larva back to prep schools and military academies, and so forth .. a marine aroma to the air replaces that of a Elephant ear dough, and hot-dogs stands, and way overly exuberant priced steamers and lobsters; and I'm sure that environment is shared up and down the New England shores districts, from Nova Scotia to Long Island. There, Autumn is a great time of year to vacation away from the weather. One thing living in that environment, having transplanted from the outskirts of Tornado Alley, is that you simply must vacate that interest while you are there. Give totally into the marine climate as your core fascination. That was where/when my interest in weather-related and/or natural phenomenon really broadened. I was a convection cook when I arrived, perhaps tinged by a curious after taste from the Cleveland Superbomb of Jan 26-27, 1978. But by the time I left I was hook-line-and-sinker a Nor'easter nerd. And it was then that I realized how I could turn on winter and summer lust for those season's affairs, simply by the dimming and brightening of the seasonal light. In October ... soon after the hurricane season inevitably harassed us with disappointments, the last thing I want is the prospect of a protracted warm season stealing time away from the righteous presentation of winter; counter, the same in April as winter thefts from spring by way of icy NW Atlantic SSTs seemingly imposing more power than the sun its self. F- that! It's why April is my least favorite month out of the entire year. At least it antithesis, October, occasionally ... albeit rarely, throws a pacifier tropical event, if nothing else .. easing the pain/burden of ennui while biding time. That is, ...over the longer haul of averaged years. Sometimes October can drag, no doubt. But it along about then that the crazy ranged model depictions start painting up the canvas of winter anticipation. We know the specifics don't carry any chance of substantiation greater than the virtual realm of computer enhanced hallucination ... But we're drug attics, addicted to the drama of the weather. So much so that like hiding in delusion during times of despair, we prefer the cinema of model charts over the early sunsets through cirrus, casting ever lengthening shows across an otherwise made barren, life-less landscape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 A lot of models/ens have been hinting at the first fall-like airmass around the 10th. Yeah I agree. That's a date to keep in mind. It wouldn't shock me to see models shift around with all the madness in the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Yeah I agree. That's a date to keep in mind. It wouldn't shock me to see models shift around with all the madness in the Pacific. You gotta love the la-la's of September modeling ... they seem to always think it's January 15 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Oh man, that's impressive..lol. And look at the northern hemi plots. Definitely tropical involvement there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Oh man, that's impressive..lol. And look at the northern hemi plots. Definitely tropical involvement there. Yeah, between that and last T-G lead up it's like a dependable month lead autumn snow threat - ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 All I ask for is rain. Very dry summer for me but its very localized it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Or we'll go from a torch cold season to a miserable warm season 2016.FFF?Forky fork fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Boy it does look like the switch to a more amplified NAMR pattern is set near the 10th though. All of the sudden, we have troughs digging for oil on the op runs and building ridges in western NAMR. It doesn't mean cold, it's just a sign of the times. Very noticeable over the last few days. Probably related to the tropics in the Pacific too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2015 Author Share Posted August 30, 2015 Remember when it was laughed at here to suggest recurving typhoons could effect the downstream pattern in summer. I do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Hey guys talk about rain i leave basically in a swamp lol. see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2015 Author Share Posted August 30, 2015 Hey guys talk about rain i leave basically in a swamp lol. see yaEnjoying retirement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Boy it does look like the switch to a more amplified NAMR pattern is set near the 10th though. All of the sudden, we have troughs digging for oil on the op runs and building ridges in western NAMR. It doesn't mean cold, it's just a sign of the times. Very noticeable over the last few days. Probably related to the tropics in the Pacific too. It's certainly a sign that the northern hemisphere is beginning the early transition from one season to the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Has anyone ever noticed that when looking at models and they begin to start showing pattern changes or a big pattern change it always seems to be like the 10th of the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Remember when it was laughed at here to suggest recurving typhoons could effect the downstream pattern in summer. I do too bad met summer ends in 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2015 Author Share Posted August 31, 2015 too bad met summer ends in 2 daysToo bad Sept 21 is the last day of summer. First 3 weeks of Sept warmer than the first 3 weeks of June. Just because some organization tries to homogenize the world doesn't change my climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Too bad Sept 21 is the last day of summer. First 3 weeks of Sept warmer than the first 3 weeks of June. Just because some organization tries to homogenize the world doesn't change my climo. I still go by the first. It's a constant date and not a changing one like Labor Day or the Autumnal Equinox - which doesn't even come at midnight - it's some arbitrary time during the day. Not to mention that the Equinox can come on a different day as well. I get the whole astronomical change but I like having a solid date that doesn't change year to year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Recurves have not worked out lately. Some thought they might a couple of weeks ago, but hasn't happened. Better chance later this month. Recurves only work if pattern can support constructive interference too. Not every recurve means cold even in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2015 Author Share Posted August 31, 2015 Recurves have not worked out lately. Some thought they might a couple of weeks ago, but hasn't happened. Better chance later this month. Recurves only work of oattern an support constructive interference too. Not every recurve means cold even in winter.good post.Intensity, scale, positioning, wave break all matter but seasons don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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