A Summer September to remember

[Nittany88]

Actually now that I'm looking at it, I see different numbers in the NOWdata...those numbers you wrote would be easy to get to on a few of those days.  But I'm seeing something different.

 

Like next Thursday it says 86F is the record high (the 17th), and 90F on Friday (the 18th)?

 

Edit:  Now I see the difference..."Burlington Area" on ThreadEx has your values, but the Burlington International Airport on NOWdata has higher values.

 

Burlington Area is the correct data-set. In 1942, the year of the 86F you write, Burlington Intl Airport was not the official climate site. The UVM data set is 1884 to 1943, then the airport from 1943 onward. There was some overlap 1940-1943 before the transition was made. Semantics lol.

 

I actually didn't even check just the Intl Airport until you mentioned it.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah me bad

20c is 68 degrees

[powderfreak]

Burlington Area is the correct data-set. In 1942, the year of the 86F you write, Burlington Intl Airport was not the official climate site. The UVM data set is 1884 to 1943, then the airport from 1943 onward. There was some overlap 1940-1943 before the transition was made. Semantics lol.

 

I actually didn't even check just the Intl Airport until you mentioned it.

 

Makes sense....I was wondering about that because I know the airport isn't that old, lol.  I figured it might be something nearby or just some old BTV Co-op.   What data did they load in there though?

[CT Rain]

20c is 68 degrees

 

KTOL is basically at 925 mb lol

[Damage In Tolland]

ABOVE

NORMAL/CLIMO SUGGESTING WARM TEMPS CONTINUE. IN FACT 12Z GEFS 925

TEMPS ARE PUSHING +2 STD BY FRI AND 12Z GFS AND EC ARE +22C FRI AND

SAT. SO HIGHS IN THE MU80S ARE POSSIBLE. AS FOR PRECIP...ANY

NORTHERN STREAM S/WV AND ATTENDING COLD FRONTS APPEAR TO DEAMPLIFY

WITH EASTERN RIDGE HOLDING FIRM.

[Nittany88]

Makes sense....I was wondering about that because I know the airport isn't that old, lol.  I figured it might be something nearby or just some old BTV Co-op.   What data did they load in there though?

 

The "Burlington Area" is the official climate database and is the combined thread of the UVM data from 1884-1943 and the Airport from 1943 onward. The "Burlington International Airport" is strictly airport data from 1940 onward, also showing the data from 1940-1943 when it was unofficial.

[J Paul Gordon]

No one is debating whether the temps will remain above normal. The question is "normal" type above normal or what folks here call a "torch". I'm assuming the latter has to be at least 15F higher than the norm. At least here in ORH it looks unlikely. The warmest September here since 1910 was in 1961 with an average of 66F. The average as of today is 71.5F (6.8F above normal for this point in the month). If we can maintain the above normal trend and get a long stretch of really warm stuff we might break the record. If not we will still have a mighty warm September. Nothing seems to indicate a plunge to colder until maybe the first week in October. I'd be looking for a monthly record now rather than daily records. All we have to do is maintain the warm pattern without any significant breaks. But a return to the broiler of last week or something like it doesn't seem too likely. 

September really doesn't give us any hard and fast clue about the winter to come, I'm told, but there does seem to be a change in the long term pattern we were in.

2011-2012 was crazy (but a Nina); I had been wondering if given the overall warming climate and those CDC maps the other day if that wasn't a possible analog. Nina vs Nino would probably wreck that idea, though, wouldn't it?

[Ginx snewx]

No one is debating whether the temps will remain above normal. The question is "normal" type above normal or what folks here call a "torch". I'm assuming the latter has to be at least 15F higher than the norm. At least here in ORH it looks unlikely. The warmest September here since 1910 was in 1961 with an average of 66F. The average as of today is 71.5F (6.8F above normal for this point in the month). If we can maintain the above normal trend and get a long stretch of really warm stuff we might break the record. If not we will still have a mighty warm September. Nothing seems to indicate a plunge to colder until maybe the first week in October. I'd be looking for a monthly record now rather than daily records. All we have to do is maintain the warm pattern without any significant breaks. But a return to the broiler of last week or something like it doesn't seem too likely.

September really doesn't give us any hard and fast clue about the winter to come, I'm told, but there does seem to be a change in the long term pattern we were in.

2011-2012 was crazy (but a Nina); I had been wondering if given the overall warming climate and those CDC maps the other day if that wasn't a possible analog. Nina vs Nino would probably wreck that idea, though, wouldn't it?

it would be very cool if ORH set an all time monthly high and low in the same year

[powderfreak]

Rainy night just to the west of New England... be interesting to see how this large cut-off system works itself out over the next 48 hours.  Nothing overly exciting for most of the area, though a general rainfall looks likely.  Upstate NY towards the Lakes and then up the St Lawrence River Valley looks good for 1-4" of rainfall over the next two days.  ROC is already above 1.2"...ALB with around 0.75" in a little over an hour.  More synoptic than convective.  A sign of the seasons.

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

it would be very cool if ORH set an all time monthly high and low in the same year

Didn't one of the climo sites do that in Feb then May?

[moneypitmike]

Rainy night just to the west of New England... be interesting to see how this large cut-off system works itself out over the next 48 hours.  Nothing overly exciting for most of the area, though a general rainfall looks likely.  Upstate NY towards the Lakes and then up the St Lawrence River Valley looks good for 1-4" of rainfall over the next two days.  ROC is already above 1.2"...ALB with around 0.75" in a little over an hour.  More synoptic than convective.  A sign of the seasons.

 

 

You should do pretty well yourself.  Just getting fringed here with only .31" so far.

 

Very steady temp.

 

63.1/61

[Ginx snewx]

You should do pretty well yourself. Just getting fringed here with only .31" so far.

Very steady temp.

63.1/61

that's a nice batch of occasional showers lol approaching CT

[J Paul Gordon]

Didn't one of the climo sites do that in Feb then May?

Pretty sure we did here in ORH. Feb was definitely the coldest (I believe for any month) and May was the warmest for that month.

[Damage In Tolland]

Only .18 of rain . Back to same old pattern here on out

[tamarack]

Summer of ''66. I remember the widespread 100+ 4th of July weekend.

 

NYC had 100, 103, 98 on the 3-day weekend, and LGA touched 107 on the 3rd.  I was flipping burgers at Curtiss-Wright's NNJ lake resort that summer, and it was so hot near the grill that we could no longer brown the rolls - they went straight to black.  There was a cheap little coil-spring thermometer next to the counter (and away from the grill) that had a scale up to 120, and the needle was about 1/8 of a circle beyond that mark, probably in the 150 range.

[backedgeapproaching]

1.19"

I didn't notice a wind advisory or wind warning from AlY(maybe I just missed it) for last night, but intense E-SE winds overnight, seemed like hours of 25-50mph. I'm not sure if it was E-SE downsloping or a cluster of storms. Have a good amount of large branches,twigs,leaf debris, etc down throughout the property.

[CoastalWx]

1.19"

I didn't notice a wind advisory or wind warning from AlY(maybe I just missed it) for last night, but intense E-SE winds overnight, seemed like hours of 25-50mph. I'm not sure if it was E-SE downsloping or a cluster of storms. Have a good amount of large branches,twigs,leaf debris, etc down throughout the property.

 

Likely downsloping from SE LLJ. You seem to be prone to that.  I remember you had strong winds before from a similar setup.

[moneypitmike]

NYC had 100, 103, 98 on the 3-day weekend, and LGA touched 107 on the 3rd.  I was flipping burgers at Curtiss-Wright's NNJ lake resort that summer, and it was so hot near the grill that we could no longer brown the rolls - they went straight to black.  There was a cheap little coil-spring thermometer next to the counter (and away from the grill) that had a scale up to 120, and the needle was about 1/8 of a circle beyond that mark, probably in the 150 range.

 

Growing up, we only had one channel of tv to watch (ABC).  Some of the older folks might recall one of the highlights back then was their "Movie of the Week".  I think this "Heatwave!"  sits in the forefront of Kevin's and Forky's all-time favorites.  They can watch it in its entirety here.  Almost as good as my thermometer video.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awQc_wZN0nY

[backedgeapproaching]

Likely downsloping from SE LLJ. You seem to be prone to that. I remember you had strong winds before from a similar setup.

Yea, I agree. This is the 3rd or 4th similar strong wind downslope event since I moved here last Dec--all with strong SE LLJ like you said.

[powderfreak]

1.19"

I didn't notice a wind advisory or wind warning from AlY(maybe I just missed it) for last night, but intense E-SE winds overnight, seemed like hours of 25-50mph. I'm not sure if it was E-SE downsloping or a cluster of storms. Have a good amount of large branches,twigs,leaf debris, etc down throughout the property.

It's blowing hard out of the SE here on the mountain. Had some 50mph SE winds above 3000ft early this morning. Currently down to 23G34 though. Nice mini-tropical storm conditions early though.

You get nice downslope winds on these events, but doesn't seem to hurt you precipitation wise.

[dendrite]

Maybe I can go a September without 30s.

[powderfreak]

A large portion of eastern NY including the ALB area picked up 1.5-3.0" of rain yesterday afternoon and last night.

But check out the SE upslope flow spots of the eastern Catskills (Ulster county). Up to 5" in spots.

[Typhoon Tip]

A large portion of eastern NY including the ALB area picked up 1.5-3.0" of rain yesterday afternoon and last night.

But check out the SE upslope flow spots of the eastern Catskills (Ulster county). Up to 5" in spots.

image.jpg

 

As that band lifted lifted NNE throughout SNE in the later evening hours, it just lost DBZ levels on every click of the passing frames of the radar loops.  Eventually, it was just a light rain and some mist in a feeble breeze that lasted three hours.  Couldn't have been (est) more than a tenth total that fell over most the region E of the Berk.  I watched the loop at a couple of times; I couldn't help but be reminded of the front edge of snow shields being eaten back by hygroscopic sinks.  Interesting...

 

Now, we are left with a classic "puke trapped in the bowl" scenario.  When I see this, it may as well be cold season, whether we are getting winter fair or not.  It's basically when a saturated, cool BL gets trapped east of the western elevations, and west and N of the oceanic differential air mass.  Hi res vis imagery suggests the lion's share of the high and mid level deck have peeled away NNE of the area, exposing this llv murk to the sun now made too feeble to 'burn' through it.  If we had any other topographical circumstance we'd have eroded this out and been left with more of a summery appeal.  But because of our uniquely butt-banged design, we end up getting April days in surplus. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan

Another surge of warmth moves back in by Tuesday. We're looking at an extended period of temperatures in the 80s. I'm pretty stoked about it! #FirstAlertCT

[J Paul Gordon]

Looks like some low 80's here. Forecast ranges are from high 70's to high 80's here in ORH (especially Thursday and Friday). High 80's seem overdone considering the airport only made it to 90 once in the crazy heat last week. I'd bet on low 80's. Humidity doesn't seem to be anything near as bad as last week....maybe 60F dew, but mostly high 50's. Today we hit 65 here with dew at 60... clammy, but not awful. Looks like the southern part of the massif took the brunt of the nasty humidity. It stayed pretty dark here on the east side of ORH..... no breaks of sunshine at all. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like some low 80's here. Forecast ranges are from high 70's to high 80's here in ORH (especially Thursday and Friday). High 80's seem overdone considering the airport only made it to 90 once in the crazy heat last week. I'd bet on low 80's. Humidity doesn't seem to be anything near as bad as last week....maybe 60F dew, but mostly high 50's. Today we hit 65 here with dew at 60... clammy, but not awful. Looks like the southern part of the massif took the brunt of the nasty humidity. It stayed pretty dark here on the east side of ORH..... no breaks of sunshine at all. 

Here's the record highs you wanted, as many folks here expressed were possible

A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND

FRIDAY

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Summery week incoming.

TuesdaySunny, with a high near 79. Calm wind becoming northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.

Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, clear, with a low around 56. Calm wind.

WednesdaySunny, with a high near 83. Light and variable wind.

Wednesday NightPatchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 58.

ThursdayPatchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 85.

Thursday NightMostly clear, with a low around 58.

FridaySunny, with a high near 84.

Friday NightMostly clear, with a low around 58.

SaturdayMostly sunny, with a high near 80.

[dendrite]

Should be beautiful with mins in the 50s across the interior.

[J Paul Gordon]

Here's the record highs you wanted, as many folks here expressed were possible

A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND

FRIDAY

The predicted highs on every site I can find are still a good 10 degrees below the records here in ORH. Our records go back to 1892. Maybe the records will be set in the Connecticut Valley? Coastal Plain? Just don't see them for here in Central MA. But it will still be about 10F above normal and the warmer than normal pattern looks like it may be with us through the beginning of October. Wouldn't be surprised at all if this isn't locked in at least through December.

[Ginx snewx]

The predicted highs on every site I can find are still a good 10 degrees below the records here in ORH. Our records go back to 1892. Maybe the records will be set in the Connecticut Valley? Coastal Plain? Just don't see them for here in Central MA. But it will still be about 10F above normal and the warmer than normal pattern looks like it may be with us through the beginning of October. Wouldn't be surprised at all if this isn't locked in at least through December.

MOS is 79-80 for ORH all week 84-85 for BDL 2 days