dmillz25 Posted November 25, 2015 Author Share Posted November 25, 2015 Nvm I got my answer thanks. And because I've been here for about a year doesn't mean I dont know weather. I've been into weather since I was a kid. I don't know everything but I know a good amount. But this forum has definitely helped improve my understanding of weather for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 How do the winds look with this storm??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Beautiful moon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Exactly. I disagree though about an earlier statement that it's unprecedented that it rained on top on Mt Washington. With a big cutter sure! But this was an offshore track in November. I'd say 99/100 times its at least some snow that high up in November. It's snowed there every month of the year including July. Just making the point about just how truly warm it has been. Even way way up. So the old "it will mix down and create it's cold" argument doesn't have as much merit as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 With a big cutter sure! But this was an offshore track in November. I'd say 99/100 times its at least some snow that high up in November. It's snowed there every month of the year including July. Just making the point about just how truly warm it has been. Even way way up. So the old "it will mix down and create it's cold" argument doesn't have as much merit as usual I see your point but it's not unprecedented to not have a cold air source yet this time of the year.Btw here's some stats from Mt Washington. https://www.mountwashington.org/experience-the-weather/mount-washington-weather-archives/normals-means-and-extremes.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 I see your point but it's not unprecedented not to have a cold air source yet this time of the year. Btw here's some stats from Mt Washington. https://www.mountwashington.org/experience-the-weather/mount-washington-weather-archives/normals-means-and-extremes.aspx Thanks for the link. Not hard to get it to snow up there. Just goes to show how important elevation is. That's why it can be 60 in LA and ripping in the mountains just to the east. I think this is the big winter inland elevated locations have been waiting for. Lots of moisture and marginal cold during the first half of winter and bam its mt. Poconos time to shine. Even at 1/3 mt Washingtons elevation. Could be the difference between pouring rain and 40 and a paste bomb and 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 CFS 2mT ensemble mean for our area does not even touch the normal line for the next 60 days. The area above the normal line and the area below it, do not seem to equal out till Jan. 10. Obviously all 60 days will not be above the normal. I think about 15-20 might be normal or below. November looked like this and we will end up with 6 normal to below normal days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 0z GFS has a coastal storm for Dec 5. Looks like a paste bomb for inland areas. Might be too warm for the coast but the signal is there from all of the models for a storm around that date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 0z GFS has a coastal storm for Dec 5. Looks like a paste bomb for inland areas. Might be too warm for the coast but the signal is there from all of the models for a storm around that date. Yeah, just not a good setup for coastal plain snow. The cold air source is very putrid. Would need an almost perfect track and a stalled out bombing ULL for the cities IMO with this setup. Not impossible, but wouldn't be that excited. 500mb is beautiful on this run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Basically what could happen to thread the needle is that this ULL that glides across the Lakes next Wednesday sets up a pseudo 50/50 low. You can see that on the GFS & the canadian @ 144 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 I swear somewhere in that super computer control room on the GFS control terminal screen is an obscure sub menu option to show Dec 5 storm for the snow weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 That is a MECS track with absolutely no cold air to be found. What a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 0z GFS has a coastal storm for Dec 5. Looks like a paste bomb for inland areas. Might be too warm for the coast but the signal is there from all of the models for a storm around that date.210 hour op GFS runs are normally highly accurate. Very encouraging indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 210 hour op GFS runs are normally highly accurate. Very encouraging indeed Thank god you are 5 posted.. Last winter was brutal with you posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Thank god you are 5 posted.. Last winter was brutal with you posting this x10000000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 That is a MECS track with absolutely no cold air to be found. What a waste. Get used to that this winter. Models are really starting to crank the activity beginning next week. December might not be white but that doesn't mean it'll be boring either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 As warm as our fall has been, we aren't even seeing the greatest departures here. International Falls, MN September....+5.4 October........+2.3 November.....+9.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Here's to winter being right around the corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 210 hour op GFS runs are normally highly accurate. Very encouraging indeed This is why he posted it in banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 0z GFS has a coastal storm for Dec 5. Looks like a paste bomb for inland areas. Might be too warm for the coast but the signal is there from all of the models for a storm around that date.Anthony , it's a day 10 OP run. There's no signal found on any of the ensembles .But we appreciate that you dropped this in the banter its where it belongs , but keep em coming. Happy Thanksgiving to most. Peanut Butter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 you have no idea what you're talking about. stfu Happy Thanksgiving Forky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 what a torch today-enjoyed some wiffle ball with the kids and a long walk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Happy thanksgiving everyone. Hope Christmas brings a blizzard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 Happy thanksgiving everyone. Hope Christmas bring a blizzard! Happy Thanksgiving Tony! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 26, 2015 Share Posted November 26, 2015 what a torch today-enjoyed some wiffle ball with the kids and a long walk Put the finishing touches on the Christmas lights in short sleeves today... not very conducive to getting in the spirit. I'd have rather had a repeat of last year: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 27, 2015 Author Share Posted November 27, 2015 If I hated snow I would enjoy this weather all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 28, 2015 Author Share Posted November 28, 2015 Is that high pressure in greenland transient showing up in the 00z gfs? Looks a little bit blocky. Maybe I'm seeing it wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Had a couple nice drinks outside at the beer hall down the block. This weather may continue, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Terrible 0z GFS run. No cold air at all to be found in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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