PB GFI Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Compliments of GINX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Compliments of GINX Yeah, everyone is essentially going with the standard Nino seasonal progression and climo this year. I guess doing otherwise would be like betting against the house in the weather casino. http://www.wsi.com/news/scheduled-forecasts/warm-northern-us-winter-expected-especially-early http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/composites/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/composites/EC_ENS_index.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Yeah, everyone is essentially going with the standard Nino seasonal progression and climo this year. I guess doing otherwise would be like betting against the house in the weather casino. http://www.wsi.com/news/scheduled-forecasts/warm-northern-us-winter-expected-especially-early http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/composites/ Yeh , I think we early to it , but def in line with others . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Yeh , I think we early to it , but def in line with others . I'll give you and others credit that everything seems to be going according to plan. It'll be another month and a half until the next phase. AN December is likely a lock. Blocking would've been the only thing that could've thrown a monkey wrench into the scenario but alas that's not likely either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Pretty good signal on the models for a miller A around the first full week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I'll give you and others credit that everything seems to be going according to plan. It'll be another month and a half until the next phase. AN December is likely a lock. Blocking would've been the only thing that could've thrown a monkey wrench into the scenario but alas that's not likely either. Agree . So far the warmth is winning . It does not mean we will be right , but a lot of us saw the same retrogression forecast in the better guidance . There was no real no analog to this NINO considering how warm the EP is and how the forcing was west of where it typically has been during such strong ENSO events . So we bypassed the J-M blowtorch ( at least I did ) . Is it possible that the NINO just overwhelms the pattern ? Sure that is always the risk , in which case everyone but a certain reg tagger will be wrong . I think many of have the right idea or at least that`s the hope because there is plenty of bump troll material here and it would leave a mark . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Yeh , I think we early to it , but def in line with others . I guess the only question right now is what the ratio of coastal huggers to benchmark storms will be after January 15th. We could still break even in the snowfall department with a ton of coastal huggers that deliver front end thumps before any mixing issues post January 15th. But just a few well placed BM events mixed in could easily put us into the above normal snowfall category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I guess the only question right now is what the ratio of coastal huggers to benchmark storms will be after January 15th. We could still break even in the snowfall department with a ton of coastal huggers that deliver front end thumps before any mixing issues post January 15th. But just a few well placed BM events mixed in could easily put us into the above normal snowfall category. Check out Judah Cohens J-M 2m map - wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 looking good for our first flakes on dec 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 looking good for our first flakes on dec 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I guess the only question right now is what the ratio of coastal huggers to benchmark storms will be after January 15th. We could still break even in the snowfall department with a ton of coastal huggers that deliver front end thumps before any mixing issues post January 15th. But just a few well placed BM events mixed in could easily put us into the above normal snowfall category. That's my feeling exactly. We do not get there pretty but we get there. This is not a build up your snow pack type winter. But with so much energy comming out of the southern stream your bound to get it right a few times I would still want a ton of elevation this year. The guy from highland lakes is going to kill it this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 looking good for our first flakes on dec 1st The models are like a pendulum with the storm for early next week, swinging back and forth between rain and rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 The models are like a pendulum with the storm for early next week, swinging back and forth between rain and rain... not sure why everyone was getting all excited-I know it's the start of a new winter, but it was one Euro run in the day 8-9 range-pure fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Still some ice on my pond from this morning... wonder if it'll make it to the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 I guess the only question right now is what the ratio of coastal huggers to benchmark storms will be after January 15th. We could still break even in the snowfall department with a ton of coastal huggers that deliver front end thumps before any mixing issues post January 15th. But just a few well placed BM events mixed in could easily put us into the above normal snowfall category. Is there any reason you're specifically utilizing the January 15th date, or just referring to it as an approximate / half-way point of winter? If not, I'd like to get my hands on that crystal ball that shows January 15th as the pattern reversal date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Is there any reason you're specifically utilizing the January 15th date, or just referring to it as an approximate / half-way point of winter? If not, I'd like to get my hands on that crystal ball that shows January 15th as the pattern reversal date. Just the standard climo for El Nino winters that I outlined in the thread last spring. It also seems to be what the ECMWF monthlies have been showing for several months now. But it's possible that the timing could be a little earlier or later depending on the fine details. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46535-greatest-january-15th-march-31st-el-nino-winters-since-1958/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 24, 2015 Author Share Posted November 24, 2015 What's up with that recurving typhoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Beautiful moon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 What's up with that recurving typhoon? I believe it already recurved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Rainstorm for Dec 5 on the goofus. Plenty of more solutions to come. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Rainstorm for Dec 5 on the goofus. Plenty of more solutions to come. Stay tuned. Is anyone really expecting anything else. That's a very unfavorable pattern shaping up, which will progressively worse beyond that time frame. The only question for next month will be how warm will it get? I sense another top 3 month and this cool shot proves to yet again be an anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Is anyone really expecting anything else. That's a very unfavorable pattern shaping up, which will progressively worse beyond that time frame. The only question for next month will be how warm will it get? I sense another top 3 month and this cool shot proves to yet again be an anomaly. Big coastal bomb on the 6z GFS. 6z GFS has my area in the upper 30s with a lot of rain with this. It's good that the STJ is starting to crank up. Great track for us but not a lot of cold air except for northwestern areas. Maybe we can thread the needle with this one. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kjfk Upper 30s for the high on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 First 10 days of December are in/out of the rain, then some snow by the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 25, 2015 Author Share Posted November 25, 2015 A benchmark storm is usually ideal for snow here. What if the storm is west and makes landfall in Eastern LI? Will that change precip here or would it stay all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 A benchmark storm is usually ideal for snow here. What if the storm is west and makes landfall in Eastern LI? Will that change precip here or would it stay all snow?i would think you would know this by now you're almost a veteran on this site. The more west the low travels the warmer it'll get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 i would think you would know this by now you're almost a veteran on this site. The more west the low travels the warmer it'll get. Veteran? Lol. His join date was less than a year ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 A benchmark storm is usually ideal for snow here. What if the storm is west and makes landfall in Eastern LI? Will that change precip here or would it stay all snow? It doesn't matter what the track is. If there is no cold around there is no snow. A couple weeks ago there was a low that took an ideal track and even the top of mt Washington at 6300' rained. Warm is warm. I really think you need elevation until the true pattern change in January. We saw the same thing in 97-98 big juicy storms that just had no cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 25, 2015 Author Share Posted November 25, 2015 Let me rephrase that question. With blocking high pressure in SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 It doesn't matter what the track is. If there is no cold around there is no snow. A couple weeks ago there was a low that took an ideal track and even the top of mt Washington at 6300' rained. Warm is warm. I really think you need elevation until the true pattern change in January. We saw the same thing in 97-98 big juicy storms that just had no cold air This is what me, you and a few others have been saying for days. It doesn't snow without cold air and there is no cold air next week, there is no cold air source in place or to tap into. Yet some are still insistant that this is going to somehow turn into an all out snowstorm. I just don't get it and to top it off, there is zero blocking on the arctic and atlantic sides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 It doesn't matter what the track is. If there is no cold around there is no snow. A couple weeks ago there was a low that took an ideal track and even the top of mt Washington at 6300' rained. Warm is warm. I really think you need elevation until the true pattern change in January. We saw the same thing in 97-98 big juicy storms that just had no cold air Exactly. I disagree though about an earlier statement that it's unprecedented that it rained on top on Mt Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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