Met Autumn BANTER

[nzucker]

I had just a hair under 13" of snow last November... it wasn't a bad month by any means.

We had 2.5" snowfall on Thanksgiving in Dobbs Ferry as well as several days with highs in the 30s. November 2012, 2013, and 2014 were all cold.

[MJO812]

Last November wasn't warm at all. December was warm though. Winter really kicked into gear at the end of January.

[NYCSNOWMAN2020]

Last November wasn't warm at all. December was warm though. Winter really kicked into gear at the end of January.

Patience will be Key for snow lovers ...December and maybe beginning of January may not produce much snow but then. . BAM...Snow machine in full force just my opinion ....

[MJO812]

Patience will be Key for snow lovers ...December and maybe beginning of January may not produce much snow but then. . BAM...Snow machine in full force just my opinion ....

That is what everyone is saying. We just need to be patient ( I know the weenies can't do that like myself lol ). It should get colder in the 1st week of December with possibly 1-2 storms to track.

[SnoSki14]

That is what everyone is saying. We just need to be patient ( I know the weenies can't do that like myself lol ). It should get colder in the 1st week of December with possibly 1-2 storms to track.

It's very possible that the strength of the Nino becomes too hard to overcome and this one is essentially a record breaker in the critical 3.4 region. 

 

For that reason alone, I wouldn't be expecting a big 2nd half comeback like last winter. Of course there will be a lot to monitor from now until mid January to see if we do see winter make an appearance at some point. Safe bet is to keep expectations very low and not count on a big wintry return come February.

 

Best case scenario is we hit the jackpot like in Feb 83, worst case is we continue to wait weeks for a winter that never comes. I think one thing that is more likely than anything is that the subtropical jet will be roaring at times, so chances of an above normal precip winter is way up there. 

[MJO812]

It's very possible that the strength of the Nino becomes too hard to overcome and this one is essentially a record breaker in the critical 3.4 region. 

 

For that reason alone, I wouldn't be expecting a big 2nd half comeback like last winter. Of course there will be a lot to monitor from now until mid January to see if we do see winter make an appearance at some point. Safe bet is to keep expectations very low and not count on a big wintry return come February.

 

Best case scenario is we hit the jackpot like in Feb 83, worst case is we continue to wait weeks for a winter that never comes. I think one thing that is more likely than anything is that the subtropical jet will be roaring at times, so chances of an above normal precip winter is way up there. 

If that happens, then it would be a huge bust for every meteorologist out there lol. With the strong stj, there should be above normal precip. We just need the tellies on our side.

[MJO812]

This helps the storm around the 1st of December.

 

[PB GFI]

It's very possible that the strength of the Nino becomes too hard to overcome and this one is essentially a record breaker in the critical 3.4 region. 

 

For that reason alone, I wouldn't be expecting a big 2nd half comeback like last winter. Of course there will be a lot to monitor from now until mid January to see if we do see winter make an appearance at some point. Safe bet is to keep expectations very low and not count on a big wintry return come February.

 

Best case scenario is we hit the jackpot like in Feb 83, worst case is we continue to wait weeks for a winter that never comes. I think one thing that is more likely than anything is that the subtropical jet will be roaring at times, so chances of an above normal precip winter is way up there. 

 

 

What critical about 3.4  ?  You realize the warmer the water is further west relative to both the averages and to the water further east could be a GOOD  thing , no you did not realize that .

 

Honestly you read a post and saw record breaking 3.4 and 4 and really have no idea what that would mean at 500 do you ? 

 

These are all temper tantrum posts , nothing more . 

[dWave]

You said the pattern is ugly for winter weather as if that's a shock. 

It's November  , you're not in winter yet , we don't see much winter historically at KNYC in November  and a warm month was predicted .

You shouldn't be looking for cold/snow right now at the coast  , if it happens consider it a gift. 

 

Agreed. Nov snow is rare (at/near coast) so a cold Nov usually means just a reason to be uncomfortable. I'd rather get the last glimpses of tolerable outdoor activities. Even a good chunk of Dec isn't that snowy on a reg basis..unless your a good distance N&W.  

[SnoSki14]

Too bad these days are going to ruin the warmest November on record. We've been torching all month, so why you want to cool us down now mother nature.

I hope next week over performs and we see super strong + departures.

[SnoSki14]

What critical about 3.4 ? You realize the warmer the water is further west relative to both the averages and to the water further east could be a GOOD thing , no you did not realize that .

Honestly you read a post and saw record breaking 3.4 and 4 and really have no idea what that would mean at 500 do you ?

These are all temper tantrum posts , nothing more .

Relax, I'm obviously no expert but I understand what could unfold and each distinct possibility (the Nino thread has been very informative for those reasons).

I'm sitting back to see what unfolds. I appreciate seeing such a powerful Nino event that I may never see again.

[MJO812]

Relax, I'm obviously no expert but I understand what could unfold and each distinct possibility (the Nino thread has been very informative for those reasons).

I'm sitting back to see what unfolds. I appreciate seeing such a powerful Nino event that I may never see again.

It is definitely a rare sight to see. You want to see region 3.4 being warm and shift west. That would promote ridging in the west which results to troughing in the east.

[PB GFI]

Relax, I'm obviously no expert but I understand what could unfold and each distinct possibility (the Nino thread has been very informative for those reasons).

I'm sitting back to see what unfolds. I appreciate seeing such a powerful Nino event that I may never see again.

If the post lacks sound reasoning then it's subject to being challenged .

Claiming the heat in R 3.4 is critical to make a warm point will get addressed here.

You are posting rain when a model shows snow and posting a warm winter opinion when record warmth in the western basin

says otherwise .

You may see your first flakes in the midst of a warm pattern before winter actually starts.

Heck of a way to run a torch.

[forkyfork]

so many lol worthy posts in the first half of the ENSO thread

[Brian5671]

We all know what happens when you don't get your snow, misery sets in .

Tis the definition of a weenie!  Got my fill last year so I should be less cranky this year.

[UnionWeatherWx]

Tis the definition of a weenie!  Got my fill last year so I should be less cranky this year.

Pretty sure you were complaining half of last year, lol.

[dmillz25]

The most annoying hour and a half ever

[Morris]

Finally back up.

[Morris]

The most annoying hour and a half ever

It's more annoying when it crashes at 12:45 in the winter...

[UnionWeatherWx]

Thought I was the only one experiencing issues.

[SnoSki14]

If the post lacks sound reasoning then it's subject to being challenged .

Claiming the heat in R 3.4 is critical to make a warm point will get addressed here.

You are posting rain when a model shows snow and posting a warm winter opinion when record warmth in the western basin

says otherwise .

You may see your first flakes in the midst of a warm pattern before winter actually starts.

Heck of a way to run a torch.

The model could show what it wants several days out, it's essentially meaningless unless there's strong ensemble support.

Your posts in the Nino thread indicate bias towards cold/snow directly opposite to say snowman19. Neither biases will help matters as we progress.

[PB GFI]

The model could show what it wants several days out, it's essentially meaningless unless there's strong ensemble support.

Your posts in the Nino thread indicate bias towards cold/snow directly opposite to say snowman19. Neither biases will help matters as we progress.

Bias ?

You really don't understand how this event evolved . Because if you followed from the beginning you wouldn't just opine that there was bias here.

You decide to jump in here after 6 months doing no work on the event , proclaiming since it's a NINO so it must mean warm .

Those questions were addressed and that work was done long ago it's a shame you missed it .

There are different implications within the event itself.

Did you even bother to read the ENSO thread ? Start with post # 78 on page 3 from MAY 20TH , ( Not sure if you will even know what that means or what a good call that turned out to be from 6 months out ) then come back to the board and tell everyone if that was bias or guidance as WAS EVERYTHING SINCE THEN .

I don`t know If I have ever had a better thread . Go back and read from page 1 , rip through and see what the forecasts were .

The westward migration of the NINO , a 1.8 - 2 ONI , record R 4 , the decline in R 1.2 from Sept onward a winter time - EPO +PNA , AN 2M Nov and Dec . I am plus 1 with AN snow @ KNYC . How is that biased cold ? Just dumb . 

It was the Euro from the spring , summer and now the fall guidance that tells me the ridge in Canada pulls back .

and where the greatest upward motion will take place during the winter .It`s not bias it was following the better guidance and it was all right .

Anyone who followed that thread will tell you , we did ok .

It was guidance and I suggest you use it .......

[MJO812]

The model could show what it wants several days out, it's essentially meaningless unless there's strong ensemble support.

Your posts in the Nino thread indicate bias towards cold/snow directly opposite to say snowman19. Neither biases will help matters as we progress.

Those are their opinions

[dmillz25]

The park stuck at 34

[Morris]

My jacket or coat are still in the closet.

Give me low 20's to teens and I'll put one on.

The scarf and gloves are still stashed away.

[nzucker]

My jacket or coat are still in the closet.

Give me low 20's to teens and I'll put one on.

The scarf and gloves are still stashed away.

It's November. Brooklyn doesn't get in the teens in November.

[IsentropicLift]

It's November. Brooklyn doesn't get in the teens hardly ever.

Fixed it for ya.

[MJO812]

0z Euro control has a foot of snow for coastal areas for December 1. 990 low right on the Benchmark.

Fixed it for ya.

In January we do

[bluewave]

I think that the last time NYC dropped below 20 in November was 1987.

It has become nearly as rare for NYC to drop below 10 in December

and 0 or lower the rest of the winter.

[Isotherm]

Bias ?

You really don't understand how this event evolved . Because if you followed from the beginning you wouldn't just opine that there was bias here.

You decide to jump in here after 6 months doing no work on the event , proclaiming since it's a NINO so it must mean warm .

Those questions were addressed and that work was done long ago it's a shame you missed it .

There are different implications within the event itself.

Did you even bother to read the ENSO thread ? Start with post # 78 on page 3 from MAY 20TH , ( Not sure if you will even know what that means or what a good call that turned out to be from 6 months out ) then come back to the board and tell everyone if that was bias or guidance as WAS EVERYTHING SINCE THEN .

I don`t know If I have ever had a better thread . Go back and read from page 1 , rip through and see what the forecasts were .

The westward migration of the NINO , a 1.8 - 2 ONI , record R 4 , the decline in R 1.2 from Sept onward a winter time - EPO +PNA , AN 2M Nov and Dec . I am plus 1 with AN snow @ KNYC . How is that biased cold ? Just dumb . 

It was the Euro from the spring , summer and now the fall guidance that tells me the ridge in Canada pulls back .

and where the greatest upward motion will take place during the winter .It`s not bias it was following the better guidance and it was all right .

Anyone who followed that thread will tell you , we did ok .

It was guidance and I suggest you use it .......

 

 

 

Should be interesting to see how this winter evolves, as it will be an important "laboratory experiment" in terms of Nino's of this magnitude. I know that some on the board are of the opinion that the magnitude / sheer intensity will simply overwhelm the pattern, rendering the winter generally torchy / snowless on the balance. If we do end up w/ a -AO and/or -NAO in means, it will be fascinating to see the combination of forcing mechanisms influence the outcome. If we do see a more 'moderate' temperature outcome, it will put to bed the notion that a Nino of such a strong magnitude always yields blowtorch.