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Met Autumn BANTER


dmillz25

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Really impressive to see the second greatest November snowstorm on record in Chicago

during such a warm fall. I guess the closest analog for NYC was the February 2006

blizzard following such a mild January pattern. January 2006...+8.8...February...+1.2

with heaviest  snowstorm on record for NYC...26.9".

 

http://www.weather.gov/lot/earliestnovsnows

 

September....+4.4

October........ +2.2

November.....+5.6

 

THIS ABOVE CHART REALLY SHOWS HOW WEATHER CAN CHANGE FAST IN THE
MIDWEST...AS ALL THE SNOW CAME DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS!

INTERESTINGLY...PRIOR TO SATURDAY...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR
THE MONTH HAD BEEN RUNNING 6.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SO THIS COULD
END UP BEING ONE OF THE WARMER NOVEMBERS AS WELL AS ONE OF THE
SNOWIEST.

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There's zero chance at any snow event because there's virtually no cold air in sight. Suburbs are struggling to get down to freezing in late November when their average lows are at or below freezing, 06z gfs doesn't even get us down to freezing with the cool shot tonight through Tuesday anymore.

The pattern is about as ugly and hostile as it can get for this time of year (if you want winter weather) with an absolutely raging +AO/NAO expected to boot. November will end up being the warmest on record (guaranteed), but I think December could see even higher positive departures and also be in the top 3 warmest.

It is only November , you seem to be caught up in what is a FALL month at 40N.

No one should be looking for snow in November at KNYC if you remove 1898 and 1938 over a the last 150 years the typical November average is closer to a trace.

Some past warm November EL NINOs years 57 63 65 77 09 (moderate ) . How did those turn out ?

How did a cold 97 (strong ) November work out ?

It's November, and the call for an AN month was made 2 to 3 ago , so just take it in stride .

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

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It is only November , you seem to be caught up in what is a FALL month at 40N.

No one should be looking for snow in November at KNYC if you remove 1898 and 1938 over a the last 150 years the typical November average is closer to a trace.

Some past warm November EL NINOs years 57 63 65 77 09 (moderate ) . How did those turn out ?

How did a cold 97 (strong ) November work out ?

It's November, and the call for an AN month was made 2 to 3 ago , so just take it in stride .

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

I'm not saying anything regarding winter, just how things are shaping up in the near future. 

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I'm not saying anything regarding winter, just how things are shaping up in the near future. 

 

You said the pattern is ugly for winter weather as if that's a shock. 

It's November  , you're not in winter yet , we don't see much winter historically at KNYC in November  and a warm month was predicted .

You shouldn't be looking for cold/snow right now at the coast  , if it happens consider it a gift. 

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You said the pattern is ugly for winter weather as if that's a shock.

It's November , you're not in winter yet , we don't see much winter historically at KNYC in November and a warm month was predicted .

You shouldn't be looking for cold/snow right now at the coast , if it happens consider it a gift.

Exactly. Why do people think it should be wintry when the average high is 53

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You said the pattern is ugly for winter weather as if that's a shock.

It's November , you're not in winter yet , we don't see much winter historically at KNYC in November and a warm month was predicted .

You shouldn't be looking for cold/snow right now at the coast , if it happens consider it a gift.

Yes for December I meant if anyone was looking for early wintry weather.

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You said the pattern is ugly for winter weather as if that's a shock. 

It's November  , you're not in winter yet , we don't see much winter historically at KNYC in November  and a warm month was predicted .

You shouldn't be looking for cold/snow right now at the coast  , if it happens consider it a gift. 

 

This. 

 

People forget last winter...November and December torched and weenies were jumping out of windows

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Judah Cohen was just on the weather channel. He did not divulge much. He did say Siberian snow cover is above normal which should correspond to a -Ao. But also that El Niño is not to be discounted. So he's not compeltly against NOAAs forecast.

It seemed to me that Cohen was giving himself a way out in case his Siberian snowcover/-AO theory doesn't work out this winter by mentioning how strong the El Niño is
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This. 

 

People forget last winter...November and December torched and weenies were jumping out of windows

 

True, I think last November was slighlty more winter like though.  At least here, nights in the 20s were more common, and even some upper teens.  Plus we had a little snow.  I agree about December though, lots of days in the 50s/upper 40s, and even Christmas was a balmy 63!

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With just a few days left before meteorological winter begins, the CFSv2 shows a near record of +6 to +7degrees is possible during the period here.   This would rival the +6.4  degrees above normal  [41.5 versus a normal winter of 35.1] in 2001-02, #1 on the list.   Do not want to be a kill joy, but those hoping or predicting a change late in the season,  the spring outlook is still about +4.0 degs. on its own.

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With just a few days left before meteorology winter begins, the CFSv2 shows a near record of +6 to +7degrees is possible during the period here. This would rival the +6.4 degrees above normal [41.5 versus a normal winter of 35.1] in 2001-02, #1 on the list. Do not want to be a kill joy, but those hoping or predicting a change late in the season, the spring outlook is still about +4.0 degs. on its own.

Cfs? Really?

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