UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 I am tracking the storm near Dec 5. Keeps on popping up. Why not the Novemeber 30th snowstorm possibility the GFS has had for several days now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Why not the Novemeber 30th snowstorm possibility the GFS has had for several days now? I don't like relying on a wave riding a long a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Dec 5 has been the magical date for many people in the past. There was a storm on Dec 5,2002 , Dec 5,2003 and Dec 5-6,2005. Models are showing a storm around that timeframe once again. Deja Vu? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Dec 5 has been the magical date for many people in the past. There was a storm on Dec 5,2002 , Dec 5,2003 and Dec 5-6,2005. Models are showing a storm around that timeframe once again. Deja Vu? Long shot imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Long shot imo. Not really. If timed right, this would be our best chance of snow for the month of December imo until the pattern changes fully to a colder pattern come January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 12z GFS still has the coastal storm for December 5 but the cold air has retreated by then. It has shifted east from 6z. Long way to go with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Northern illionis. Northwest of Chicago.Where's that? I've never heard of Illionis before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 I noticed the Accuweather 45 day outlook has a lot of Dec. days with temperature range of 30 degrees, 50's----20's. What kind of pattern can do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 my favorite dates for the first snowfall is Dec. 9th-12th...the magical early December storm for me is the 11-12th blizzard in 1960 when I was 11 years old...then 1961 had 1" on the 10th-11th...1962 had an inch on the 9th-10th...1963 2" on the 12th...1947 had it's first inch around the 11th...1982 on the 12th...1993 on the 11th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Where are all my CFSV2 lovers ? " Since it has the right idea on the winter torch " , is this right ? Doubt it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Would be funny if this ends up their biggest snow of the season. Probably a good bet it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Wow gfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Wow gfs lol Beautiful right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Good chance of a big storm with the fueled stj, -epo and +pna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Good chance of a big storm with the fueled stj, -epo and +pna. This is for December? What's happening with the one for Thanksgiving weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 This is for December? What's happening with the one for Thanksgiving weekend?Next weekends is a single wave riding the cold front boundary, not likely to be favorable... However far away it may be, Snow88 is right on the favorable set up for the early December storm the GFS is showing... Something to be monitored over the next week or so but not get to excited aboutSign me up for this any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 If I only had a dollar for every time the gfs spit out a LR snow bomb. Now watch when Dec 5-6 verifies the complete opposite of that run. FWIW: That would likely end up being a cold rainstorm for the coastal plain as origins are very tropical/sub-tropical and antecedent airmass is rather mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 If I only had a dollar for every time the gfs spit out a LR snow bomb. Now watch when Dec 5-6 verifies the complete opposite of that run. Wouldn't doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Luckily (or not) I'm picking my little sister up from college tomorrow in Western New York. Forecast is for 8-10 inches of snow :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Luckily (or not) I'm picking my little sister up from college tomorrow in Western New York. Forecast is for 8-10 inches of snow :-) Stay the night somewhere and enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 I noticed the Accuweather 45 day outlook has a lot of Dec. days with temperature range of 30 degrees, 50's----20's. What kind of pattern can do that? That's about as accurate as having a 7 year old come up with a bunch of numbers that are then put in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Stay the night somewhere and enjoy! I plan on it for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 I think some places get a foot+ in the snow belts. Don't go the 90 in the way up use the side roads to get the full effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Next weekends is a single wave riding the cold front boundary, not likely to be favorable... However far away it may be, Snow88 is right on the favorable set up for the early December storm the GFS is showing... Something to be monitored over the next week or so but not get to excited about Sign me up for this any day Hmm, I see. Well, looks like we have a couple events to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 If I only had a dollar for every time the gfs spit out a LR snow bomb. Now watch when Dec 5-6 verifies the complete opposite of that run. FWIW: That would likely end up being a cold rainstorm for the coastal plain as origins are very tropical/sub-tropical and antecedent airmass is rather mild. The GFS has been showing this for several runs already. Nice -EPO with a +PNA. This is most likely the best shot to have wintry precip before it warms up. Still many more runs to go but I am intrigued on this possibility. Looks like JB and Joe Cioffi are also intrigued with this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 The GFS has been showing this for several runs already. Nice -EPO with a +PNA. This is most likely the best shot to have wintry precip before it warms up. Still many more runs to go but I am intrigued on this possibility. Looks like JB and Joe Cioffi are also intrigued with this timeframe. Next weekend has a better chance of wintry precip. The 5th storm just looks to warm, and most likely would be cold rain for coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Next weekend has a better chance of wintry precip. The 5th storm just looks to warm, and most likely would be cold rain for coastal plain. A lot of storms to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Next weekend has a better chance of wintry precip. The 5th storm just looks to warm, and most likely would be cold rain for coastal plain. Dec 1 storm went from just offshore and cold to a GLC on this run lol. Flip Flopping so much. 0z GFS is now warm and offshore with the storm near Dec 5 but the point is that the GFS is still showing 2 possible threats ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 It's late Nov and we have the AC on. Upper 50s here downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Dec 1 storm went from just offshore and cold to a GLC on this run lol. Flip Flopping so much. 0z GFS is now warm and offshore with the storm near Dec 5 but the point is that the GFS is still showing 2 possible threats ahead. There's zero chance at any snow event because there's virtually no cold air in sight. Suburbs are struggling to get down to freezing in late November when their average lows are at or below freezing, 06z gfs doesn't even get us down to freezing with the cool shot tonight through Tuesday anymore. The pattern is about as ugly and hostile as it can get for this time of year (if you want winter weather) with an absolutely raging +AO/NAO expected to boot. November will end up being the warmest on record (guaranteed), but I think December could see even higher positive departures and also be in the top 3 warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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