UnionWeatherWx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Im tracking mondays storm 12z Ukmet came pretty close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Im tracking mondays storm 12Z EURO EPS shows no snow anywhere in NY, PA,NJ till Nov. 30, then keeps adding to it, up to end of run. It falls just short of the coast, by the Dec. 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 only 12 days and 48 model runs to go At least this year it's in banter. And it will stay that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I had 2"-4" and hour with constant thunder in N. Queens from 9pm to 11pm and then again from midnight to 3am. Most on these weather forums were sound asleep when the best part of the storm was occurring, which is why this storm is very underrated and people were sleeping and missed an epic storm. At 2am, it was me, sundog and only 3-4 posters awake on this site while NYC and LI got pounded with 3"-6" an hour rates and constant thunder. We even official stations (ISP + LGA) confirm these snowfall rates. Not just a snow weenie's measurement. Yea I know. I was up for the whole event. It was nuts. I did not receive any thundersnow but I had lots of thunder and lightning during the change over. It was heaviest sleet I've ever seen fall before it turned to blinding snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Yea I know. I was up for the whole event. It was nuts. I did not receive any thundersnow but I had lots of thunder and lightning during the change over. It was heaviest sleet I've ever seen fall before it turned to blinding snow. I was up and on too. I was out shoveling mostly in long beach and had the best consistent rates I have seen. You could walk down the path shoveling and return 20 minutes later and another fresh inch had fallen you also couldn't see more then one block. There were a couple flashes but not much thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Last 5 runs of GFS. Trend much? Any thoughts Mets? http://www.tropicalt...o...=0&ypos=334 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 One of my personal favorites was 2/23/10. Only had 14" IMBY but it was pure cement and it snowed for over 24 consecutive hours. The Snowicane! It was actually 2/25-2/27/10. One of my personal favorites. Not only was 28"+ widespread up here but the cutoff from S+ to R+ was beyond impressive & awkward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 nino jet go wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Last 5 runs of GFS. Trend much? Any thoughts Mets? http://www.tropicalt...o...=0&ypos=334 the great lakes system needs to be weaker or not there at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 the 0z gfs was more amplified and had a more offshore coastal system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 the great lakes system needs to be weaker or not there at all Looks like that would be rain on the coast if it got closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 It's looking like we may get at least some snow at the of the month or by the beginning of December. Can't wait! GFS 18z just showed a snowy solution near or around thanksgiving. Let's see what the 0z runs show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 1st Winter storm watch of the season up for Chicago...nice to see blue and pink on the national maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 It's looking like we may get at least some snow at the of the month or by the beginning of December. Can't wait! GFS 18z just showed a snowy solution near or around thanksgiving. Let's see what the 0z runs show! Tony! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Last 5 runs of GFS. Trend much? Any thoughts Mets? http://www.tropicalt...o...=0&ypos=334 Maybe if there's a noticeable shift tonight then it might be worth a look otherwise probably just model noise. Interestingly you can kind of see how our storms might shape up deeper into winter as the storm track likely shifts further N&W over time (stronger jet, gradients, deeper lows more prone to negative tilt). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Forky, as I was skimming through the Lakes Forum, I am seeing post of models beginning to show "south/weaker solutions". Thank you for your input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 18z GFS has a real potential the weekend after thanksgiving, very far out, but jive to atleast see some threats worth following Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 At least this year it's in banter. And it will stay that way! Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 It's looking like we may get at least some snow at the of the month or by the beginning of December. Can't wait! GFS 18z just showed a snowy solution near or around thanksgiving. Let's see what the 0z runs show! Winter Storm Watches will be issued by tomorrow so people will have plenty of time to prepare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Yea I know. I was up for the whole event. It was nuts. I did not receive any thundersnow but I had lots of thunder and lightning during the change over. It was heaviest sleet I've ever seen fall before it turned to blinding snow. Oh man was I awake too. Was some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen-at one point for 20 minutes or so I could barely pick the house out directly across the street from me. That's what sucks about life in the South. 3-4" per hour rain just doesn't have the same... "ambiance" as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Oh man was I awake too. Was some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen-at one point for 20 minutes or so I could barely pick the house out directly across the street from me. That's what sucks about life in the South. 3-4" per hour rain just doesn't have the same... "ambiance" as that. Did you get in on the thundersleet too? Also wasn't there a cell with some rotation crashing into the south shore of Nassau or Queens just before or during the changeover? Idk why, but I vaguely remember that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Did you get in on the thundersleet too? Also wasn't there a cell with some rotation crashing into the south shore of Nassau or Queens just before or during the changeover? Idk why, but I vaguely remember that. Yep, there was thundersleet. Only time I experienced that in my life. It was coming down so hard that it felt like nails hitting you. Within an hour it was over to dumping snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Yep, there was thundersleet. Only time I experienced that in my life. It was coming down so hard that it felt like nails hitting you. Within an hour it was over to dumping snow. heavy sleet in itself is amazing, it's like someone throwing ball bearings out of the sky. March 1993 I was west of Philly and we had hours of it, it never went to rain there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Oh man was I awake too. Was some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen-at one point for 20 minutes or so I could barely pick the house out directly across the street from me. That's what sucks about life in the South. 3-4" per hour rain just doesn't have the same... "ambiance" as that. I wish I had a better radar image and had the SRV but I really remember this cell between the :30-:35 mark having some rotation over the water. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=J3zBanwXDA4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 The rain has been coming down hard at times all evening and night so far. The winds have picked up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Pouring nicely here on the SS tail end movin in quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Pouring nicely here on the SS tail end movin in quick Yeah. Actually a nice little storm. Finally feels like fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Well it looks like the models now show a warm and ugly pattern in the first week of December instead of the cold pattern that they were showing. Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Early December isn't really winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Well it looks like the models now show a warm and ugly pattern in the first week of December instead of the cold pattern that they were showing. Terrible. at that time frame (10-15 days) you are going to see flip flops, it's fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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