WeatherFeen2000 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Latest GFS also keeps us warm throughout the whole run. This is insane. Ever since May we've had above average and there's no end in sight. I mean where is winter? It's supposed to get cold around here this time of the year but not a freeze in sight for the city. Maybe the burbs get a freeze Sunday night but that's about it. My guess is winter arrives in full effect on December with very heavy snow and brutal cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 this looks absolutely nothing like a modoki. the word should be banned from the board +1 Along with 1997 and 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Latest GFS also keeps us warm throughout the whole run. This is insane. Ever since May we've had above average and there's no end in sight. I mean where is winter? It's supposed to get cold around here this time of the year but not a freeze in sight for the city. Maybe the burbs get a freeze Sunday night but that's about it. My guess is winter arrives in full effect on December with very heavy snow and brutal cold! What are you basing your guess on? December averages 5" of snow if we're lucky so a warmer than average December means probably less snow than that. Its mid November it should be in the 50s. Yes we should have some colder weather with days in the 40s but the pattern we're in doesn't support that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 tropical forcing is grad school level material and here we are being lectured on it by peanut butter girlfriend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 +1 Along with 1997 and 2009. this event is much closer to 97 than 09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 this event is much closer to 97 than 09 or maybe some other year http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2015/08/a-deeper-look-at-top-10-el-ninos-since.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 There are some deep thinkers in here ..... 15 and 97 are similar ? , You don`t say , 80 pages of side by side comparisons showing how the overall heat between 85 and 180 were similar with the exception that in 15 the greatest heat is bet 100 and 160 vs 97 where it was bet 120 and 85 . Both were/are strong to super status and probably finish 1 - 2 as far as events go . 15 is a basin wide event vs 97 an east based event . 09 was was a modoki This is not a modoki oh btw this is not news . The mention by DT and a few others that liken the OLR anomalies to 09 was just that . The grad school level material forcing was all that was opined about by some and not the basin wide distribution of AN water temps. But then again there are 80 pages in that thread , and you will find very little in the way of contributions by the midget . Go figure . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 tropical forcing is grad school level material and here we are being lectured on it by peanut butter girlfriend LMAO.. I do think of peanut butter though when i see his screen name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 What are you basing your guess on? December averages 5" of snow if we're lucky so a warmer than average December means probably less snow than that. Its mid November it should be in the 50s. Yes we should have some colder weather with days in the 40s but the pattern we're in doesn't support that. He's not basing it on anything. I wouldn't bother with the reply. Right now we are seeing typical strong/super Nino conditions as far as sensible weather in the US to the T. No signs of that changing until at least january. I woulnt put away the shorts yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 11, 2015 Author Share Posted November 11, 2015 My mom who's religious went to one of her prayer sessions and was told that this winter is going to be very snowy even more so than last winter. I know this is a science forum but even in 11-12 she mentioned that it wasn't going to be snowy and she turned out right. That is what made me start believing her lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I think '15-'16 is a good analog for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 My mom who's religious went to one of her prayer sessions and was told that this winter is going to be very snowy even more so than last winter. I know this is a science forum but even in 11-12 she mentioned that it wasn't going to be snowy and she turned out right. That is what made me start believing her lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I think '15-'16 is a good analog for this winter.Haha nice one!!! I'm going with 16-17 as the analog for next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Are we talking 70s 90s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 90s with dews in the 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Latest GFS also keeps us warm throughout the whole run. This is insane. Ever since May we've had above average and there's no end in sight. I mean where is winter? It's supposed to get cold around here this time of the year but not a freeze in sight for the city. Maybe the burbs get a freeze Sunday night but that's about it. My guess is winter arrives in full effect on December with very heavy snow and brutal cold! it's November 11th. Relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 I think '15-'16 is a good analog for this winter. That winter is going to have sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Epic 2nd half coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 There are some deep thinkers in here ..... 15 and 97 are similar ? , You don`t say , 80 pages of side by side comparisons showing how the overall heat between 85 and 180 were similar with the exception that in 15 the greatest heat is bet 100 and 160 vs 97 where it was bet 120 and 85 . Both were/are strong to super status and probably finish 1 - 2 as far as events go . 15 is a basin wide event vs 97 an east based event . 09 was was a modoki This is not a modoki oh btw this is not news . The mention by DT and a few others that liken the OLR anomalies to 09 was just that . The grad school level material forcing was all that was opined about by some and not the basin wide distribution of AN water temps. But then again there are 80 pages in that thread , and you will find very little in the way of contributions by the midget . Go figure . unless you are touting warm and snowless he won't bite. Even in the last 2 years he was downplaying the historic cold and snow as no big deal....LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 unless you are touting warm and snowless he won't bite. Even in the last 2 years he was downplaying the historic cold and snow as no big deal....LOL I like AN D - M temps, but think the EC may be wet enough as we get deeper to eek out AN snowfall . But N and D will blow . Pull the shades down til Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 I'm not gonna lie I kinda miss Pamela lmao. She made things fun even tho she took it over board sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 I'm not gonna lie I kinda miss Pamela lmao. She made things fun even tho she took it over board sometimes I'll bring her back so she can try to pick fights with one of our best posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 I'll bring her back so she can try to pick fights with one of our best posters. No I wouldn't want that lol but she certainly was entertaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 No I wouldn't want that lol but she certainly was entertaining Def a good winter poster. I could do without the other bs. But anyway to each his own. I don't like speaking about people when they aren't here to defend themselves. This is my own fault and I apologize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 That winter is going to have sucked. No worries, my gut says we all start getting dumped on starting 12/23, it's going to just pour snow. You can't go against a gut feeling, can you?! I've been studying my pine trees and judging by the volume of needles they dropped we are all in for a real treat this winter!! And I saw a squirrel bury a nut in the grass, that's gotta mean something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 I like AN D - M temps, but think the EC may be wet enough as we get deeper to eek out AN snowfall . But N and D will blow . Pull the shades down til Jan. If we stay stormy, I'd agree our chances are good for good snowfall year. Given averages around here of 25-40 inches depending on locale, all we need is one biggie to get above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Another pretty good slug of moderate rains about to come through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Heaviest rains just skimmed to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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