Met Autumn BANTER

[PB GFI]

Stop removing words from my posts. I'm out, you can have your echo chamber of BS.

 

I did not remove anything , I am not sure what you are referring too . You said there`s no trough in the means in the SE 

I showed you the guidance . 

 

 

You posted Dec would be warm as if a warm Dec must mean a warm winter must ensue .

 

This has been addressed in the guidance as the pattern retrogrades at 500 . It is not a shock to anyone`s thinking . 

 

PB GFI, on 18 Sept 2015 - 8:06 PM, said:

 

1 I believe the forcing will shift west.

2 I believe the EPO will produce a NEG S of the Aleutians.

3 I believe that will pull the higher heights west of Hudson Bay

4 I believe there will be a trough in the SE and the EC will see AN precip.

5 I believe Dec is AN while Jan and Feb is your winter.

I don't know how much more specific I can be , I am never afraid to make a forecast , I did this back in April with the Nino and it turned out very good , so I am willing to go all in and tell you what I think with the guidance and drivers on my side.

[forkyfork]

dateline forcing

[ORH_wxman]

Was the AO and NAO positive in the summer of '14?

 

 

They were negative.

[Brian5671]

They were negative.

So it didn't correlate last year at all then.   We raged positive for both AO and NAO all winter...

[donsutherland1]

Caught a couple nice Taurid meteors (quasi-fireballs?) last night around 2 am. I wasn't awake for them sadly.

 

Amazing shot.

[ORH_wxman]

So it didn't correlate last year at all then.   We raged positive for both AO and NAO all winter...

 

It didn't work in 2011 either...deeply -NAO summer and then 2011-2012 was a strongly positve NAO winter.

[PB GFI]

It didn't work in 2011 either...deeply -NAO summer and then 2011-2012 was a strongly positve NAO winter.

 

 

The point was you don`t need blocking to portend cold and snow ( especially on the back end )  with a -EPO + PNA regime . 

 

The greatest Height anomalies are over HB ,( and west as per the Euro )  with a trough in the SE the - EPO sets up for the back side slide flow off the ridge which will allow cross polar flow to sink to the base of the trough . 

[SnoSki14]

NEG EPO

WEST based forcing

I still can't tell if you're being serious or not. I was sure you were on the AN temps, BN snowfall train.

[ORH_wxman]

The point was you don`t need blocking to portend cold and snow ( especially on the back end )  with a -EPO + PNA regime . 

 

The greatest Height anomalies are over HB ,( and west as per the Euro )  with a trough in the SE the - EPO sets up for the back side slide flow off the ridge which will allow cross polar flow to sink to the base of the trough . 

 

Well we need EPO blocking to get cold without the NAO...I assume maybe you are just referring to NAO blocking using the generic "blocking" term. But to get cold, we need some form of blocking...or at the very least an amplified pattern.

 

The Euro composite looks decent for JFM...but I wouldn't say it's cold. It probably has "enough cold" for snow threats though. The pattern would no doubt be active on that setup. The biggest key though is definitely keeping the Aleutian low southwest of the EPO region...that is basically a must...if that doesn't happen, we are almost certainly toast unless we get amazing NAO blocking.

[PB GFI]

Well we need EPO blocking to get cold without the NAO...I assume maybe you are just referring to NAO blocking using the generic "blocking" term. But to get cold, we need some form of blocking...or at the very least an amplified pattern.

 

The Euro composite looks decent for JFM...but I wouldn't say it's cold. It probably has "enough cold" for snow threats though. The pattern would no doubt be active on that setup. The biggest key though is definitely keeping the Aleutian low southwest of the EPO region...that is basically a must...if that doesn't happen, we are almost certainly toast unless we get amazing NAO blocking.

 

 

I agree Will , the  " blocking " will be to the wet of HB  but the NAO  can be Neut or + .  The -EPO bends that jet off Asia and the higher heights " blocking " allows for the cold to go over the top and slide down the backside .

That`s how we get the source region . 

 

The NEG in the GOA will push the pattern .   - EPO+PNA regime for the NE/MA is enough to get it just " cold enough " .

Which was my only point , this year that regime could overcome a poor Atlantic .

 

Without a - EPO+PNA regime you just torch the CONUS 

[IrishRob17]

There are more ways than one to reach a 97-98 setup.

Its about time you caught on to this!

[Brian5671]

I'll wait til 2/1/16 this year before I yell bust. 

[donsutherland1]

It didn't work in 2011 either...deeply -NAO summer and then 2011-2012 was a strongly positve NAO winter.

At this time, it appears that there is no reliable way to be sure of the predominant winter state of the AO and NAO from this far out. Combining the July data with the December data (which can be estimated to some extent from the ensembles near the beginning of December), some insight might be possible.

 

July AO Average: -1.000 or below/December average -0.50 or below:

DJF Average: -1.633

Months < 0 (in the DJF timeframe): 95%

Months -1 or below (in the DJF timeframe): 57%

 

July AO Average: -1.000 or below/December average > -0.50:

DJF Average: -0.299

Months < 0 (in the DJF timeframe): 62%

Months -1 or below (in the DJF timeframe): 24%

 

All winters December -0.500 or below:

DJF Average: -0.973

Months < 0 (in the DJF timeframe): 81%

Months -1 or below (in the DJF timeframe): 51%

 

All winters December > -0.500:

DJF Average: +0.025

Months < 0 (in the DJF timeframe): 49%

Months -1 or below (in the DJF timeframe): 23%

 

All winters December > 0:

DJF Average: +0.318

Months < 0 (in the DJF timeframe): 32%

Months -1 or below (in the DJF timeframe): 20%

 

All winters December +0.500 or above:

DJF Average: +0.558

Months < 0 (in the DJF timeframe): 28%

Months -1 or below (in the DJF timeframe): 13%

 

1950-2014 Period:

DJF Average: -0.344

Months < 0 (in the DJF timeframe): 61%

Months -1 or below (in the DJF timeframe): 33%

 

Of course, there are exceptions e.g, winter 1957-58. But historic data coupled with ensemble forecasts (keeping in mind the risk of error in the ensemble forecasts) probably offers the best idea given the present state of knowledge.

[forkyfork]

I still can't tell if you're being serious or not. I was sure you were on the AN temps, BN snowfall train.

i'm being serious. the only way we can have a bad el nino winter is if the anomalies match 1997/98 exactly

[Rjay]

"Payed shill" lol

[Rjay]

NEG EPO

WEST based forcing

Lol nice

Hey at least Weatherguy#s is on "your side".

Maybe explain to the people why you're leaning towards a warm, less snowy winter for our area. Most of us want to learn and aren't jumping to conclusions about this winter. Considering there really aren't any good analogs to use for this coming winter, I wouldn't be confident in any of the calls being made.

[Rjay]

I still can't tell if you're being serious or not. I was sure you were on the AN temps, BN snowfall train.

Lol. Really? You can't tell?

[AvantHiatus]

Is there any truth to this?

https://www.quora.com/Why-are-record-high-and-record-high-minimum-temperatures-of-Northeast-cities-in-the-U-S-generally-similar-to-or-greater-than-record-high-and-record-high-minimum-temperatures-of-Southeast-cities-in-the-U-S

 

 

 

Why are record-high (and record-high minimum) temperatures of Northeast cities in the U.S. generally similar to or greater than record-high (and record-high minimum) temperatures of Southeast cities in the U.S.?

[AvantHiatus]

Lol nice

Hey at least Weatherguy#s is on "your side".

Maybe explain to the people why you're leaning towards a warm, less snowy winter for our area. Most of us want to learn and aren't jumping to conclusions about this winter. Considering there really aren't any good analogs to use for this coming winter, I wouldn't be confident in any of the calls being made.

The reasons are obvious. Our cold source region will be toasted thru out due to AK Death Vortex and some help from AGW. There will be a 4-6 week window for wet snow events regardless. South of 40N it will probably be snowless away from the mountains, combined with the potential for +NAO, some areas will strongly torch in contrast to typical nino climatology.

 

Without a -EPO and with a continuation of the November setup, we will eclipse the winter warmth seen in years like 2002 and 2006. In addition, there is uncharted territory and a lack of analogs for a warm basin-wide ENSO event of this magnitude.

 

Nobody should be confident in anything really but seeing November turn away from the October pattern was all I needed to see. Welcome to the real world East Coast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[dmillz25]

This pattern will flip on a dime by month's end

[AvantHiatus]

nino jet

go wet

[Rjay]

The reasons are obvious. Our cold source region will be toasted thru out due to AK Death Vortex and some help from AGW. There will be a 4-6 week window for wet snow events regardless. South of 40N it will probably be snowless away from the mountains, combined with the potential for +NAO, some areas will strongly torch in contrast to typical nino climatology.

Without a -EPO and with a continuation of the November setup, we will eclipse the winter warmth seen in years like 2002 and 2006. In addition, there is uncharted territory and a lack of analogs for a warm basin-wide ENSO event of this magnitude.

Nobody should be confident in anything really but seeing November turn away from the October pattern was all I needed to see. Welcome to the real world East Coast.

4panel.png

At least you posted this in banter. I was asking Forky.

[AvantHiatus]

At least you posted this in banter. I was asking Forky.

Don't expect to get off that easily when you call me out by my label. To the best of my knowledge, the above is relevant and not posted in bad faith.

[Rjay]

Don't expect to get off that easily when you call me out by my label. To the best of my knowledge, the above is relevant and not posted in bad faith.

Get off easily? You're lucky you haven't been 5 posted long ago. You make deniers look sane.

What you posted was hyperbole. I haven't seen one seasonal model showing anything resembling an "Alaskan death vortex" yet. And this is coming from someone who's not a big fan of seasonal models.

[Rjay]

Don't expect to get off that easily when you call me out by my label. To the best of my knowledge, the above is relevant and not posted in bad faith.

And to be completely honest, I can see what both sides are saying regarding a warm winter/less snowy winter vs warm to back loaded (cold and snowy 2nd half) winter. The difference is, I'm objective. Both side have made valid points. Using less hyperbolic statements would make you 1000 x better of a poster.

[AvantHiatus]

 

There is a difference between hyperbole and liberal vs conservative language. This board has never accepted my big picture posting style, but I can assure you that anything I post will be called out as Hyperbole regardless of the contents.

[Rjay]

.

[AvantHiatus]

Kudos to Bluewave and DonS for raising the topics of arctic ice/GW and the interplay with the EPO and downstream 500mb pattern.

[PB GFI]

The reasons are obvious. Our cold source region will be toasted thru out due to AK Death Vortex and some help from AGW. There will be a 4-6 week window for wet snow events regardless. South of 40N it will probably be snowless away from the mountains, combined with the potential for +NAO, some areas will strongly torch in contrast to typical nino climatology.

Without a -EPO and with a continuation of the November setup, we will eclipse the winter warmth seen in years like 2002 and 2006. In addition, there is uncharted territory and a lack of analogs for a warm basin-wide ENSO event of this magnitude.

Nobody should be confident in anything really but seeing November turn away from the October pattern was all I needed to see. Welcome to the real world East Coast.

All you needed to see ? This has been the forecast since Sept So I guess me too .....

The real world EC ? What would that be AN snow 11 out of the last 14 years ?

You need to start from page 1 in the ENSO thread and see how the predictions worked out over the last 6 months. All these assertions have been addressed and dismantled by many in there .

So no sense copy and pasting 80 pages of being right , do us all a favor and scroll through .

The non analog argument was started by guys like me that had to stave off the idiots who believe all strong NINO s had to be east based and had to produce the same net effect at 500.

It is Nov 10 and an above normal N and D was expected so none of this is the least bit shocking .

This pattern will retrograde at 500 as we get deeper into the winter

That too is very well forecast. So another back loaded winter is on its way. I am sure ? That's the call , this looks good to me.

Inside the ENSO thread you will find 6 months worth of calls for a basin wide vs east hard nino. A basin wide vs east base forcing . AN waters in the GOA that will allow the neg to develop in the GOA anf AN November and December. All correct.

So this early winter warmth is looking perfect and and BTW expected.

BTW the correlation at 500 is OCT for the winter. Not November or December .

[AvantHiatus]

Expected outcome but it doesn't necessarily confirm that J and F will be cold or snowy. We will have to wait this one out and look at the situation as if there were no analogs. Only then, will we have a chance of having more than a shade of accuracy.

 

My only concern and my main beef with long-range winter forecasting is the use of older analogs and the failure to connect important dots. For example, why were the last 11 of 14 years AN? Moreover, I believe one of those years was the snowiest on record for NYC or Boston. I know 09-10 was the snowiest on record down here.

 

There is more than meets the eye these days, and it has nothing to do with ENSO forcing at 120W vs 130W or something that happened back in the 70s or 80s.

 

The real world reference was a allusion to what the west coast experienced last winter, and many other regions of the world. EC will likely get a taste of that, whether it is persistent or fleeting remains unknown.

 

I have feared greatly that individuals (weather hobbyists and the general public) would walk away with a false perception and misunderstanding the difference between weather and climate.

 

Thankfully, I see more objectivity than ever before and this is music to my ears and I believe we are close to having a fair run in this community, which leads to less polarized discussions, less trolling, and deeper understanding.