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Met Autumn BANTER


dmillz25

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Had 12" in my hometown, though I wasn't there for the event. Incredible double-whammy from Sandy and then a historic snowstorm one week later. That's what anomalous blocking can do for you.

strong blocking helped Sandy and son of Sandy give us a historical two week period...The blocking returned in February and March 2013 but hasn't been that strong since...

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

700 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight in

association with a low pressure area located about 100 miles

southeast of the Turks and Caicos. Surface observations indicate

that gale-force winds have been occurring in brief squalls mainly to

the east of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to be

conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical

depression could form during the next couple of days while it moves

west-northwestward over the Bahamas and then turns northwestward.

Locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds are possible over

Hispaniola today, and over the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern

Bahamas during the next day or so.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart

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If the westward Nino progression continues, then it's very likely we see a very active (potentially snowy) 2nd half.

We could also see a few whopper systems thanks to the raging STJ. Really fascinating to see what will happen as we've never experienced an event like this with a strong +PDO and record breaking western Nino waters.

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Counter-acted by an insane +AO and +NAO, the former being uncertain tho.

 

You mean like this ? 

HEADLINE: The historical data suggests that big high-latitude blocking in the summer (as we had in July) is positively correlated to blocking in the following winter. The results from this data analysis suggest that colder risks may be in play relative to the usual warm-leaning winter forecasts that occur during the stronger El Nino events.

 

http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter 

 

 

 

A pos NAO makes you warm this year ? There is no way you are this stupid ? 

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You mean like this ? 

HEADLINE: The historical data suggests that big high-latitude blocking in the summer (as we had in July) is positively correlated to blocking in the following winter. The results from this data analysis suggest that colder risks may be in play relative to the usual warm-leaning winter forecasts that occur during the stronger El Nino events.

 

http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter 

 

 

 

A pos NAO makes you warm ? There is no way you are this stupid ? 

Don't understand the bolded portion, you are questioning Met 101. Thus far we are not headed in the right direction if you want a -NAO. Here is the average +NAO/-NAO composite. Even if you get cold during a +NAO thru other means, your storm track will be screwed up, especially true in the Mid-Atlantic.

 

The only way to overcome is to have a repeat of 14-15, a record breaking -EPO loading pattern. I'm not interested in a WSI payed shill article from 4 months ago. You can see the writing on the wall for a warm December and uncertain outcomes later on.

 

NAOexplain.jpg

 

nao.mrf.obs.gif

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Don't understand the bolded portion, you are questioning Met 101. Thus far we are not headed in the right direction if you want a -NAO. Here is the average +NAO composite. Even if you get cold during a +NAO thru other means, your storm track will be screwed up, especially true in the Mid-Atlantic.

 

NAOexplain.jpg

 

nao.mrf.obs.gif

 

This year . 

 

 

Not with a strong ENSO event a trough in the means in the SE . Where is the ridge in the SE coming from this year ? 

 

You guys think too linear . You all suffer from MET 101 STUPIDITY .

 

Look at the $%^&* mean trough in the SE .  So your 2m will be a result of the 500 in the PAC  EPO /PNA regime and NOT THE NORTH ATLANTIC 

 

The NAO will determine how wet you get , that`s it . 

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This year . 

 

 

Not with a strong ENSO event a trough in the means in the SE . Where is the ridge in the SE coming from this year ? 

 

You guys think too linear . You all suffer from MET 101 STUPIDITY .

 

Look at the $%^&* mean trough in the SE .  So your 2m will be a result of the 500 in the PAC  EPO /PNA regime and NOT THE NORTH ATLANTIC 

 

The NAO will determine how wet you get , that`s it . 

The mean trough position is certainly not in the SE and November is a prime pre-conditioning month for winter setups.

 

The only way to overcome is to have a repeat of 14-15, a record breaking -EPO loading pattern. I'm not interested in a WSI payed shill article from 4 months ago. You can see the writing on the wall for a warm December and uncertain outcomes later on.

 

UNLIKELY, go realistic or fail hard.

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The mean trough is certainly not in the SE. 

 

The only way to overcome is to have a repeat of 14-15, a record breaking -EPO loading pattern. I'm not interested in a WSI payed shill article from 4 months ago. You can see the writing on the wall for a warm December and uncertain outcomes later on.

 

UNLIKELY, go realistic or fail hard.

 

 

The winter trough in the  means is in the SE. 

 

The Euro - which can`t be posted . And then oh just the rest of the %^&*( guidance . 

cahgt_anom.1.gif

 

 

post-2311-0-70087400-1447073735.png

post-564-0-32375300-1447008066.png

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