SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 This is quite the read. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47089-my-2015-2016-winter-outlook/ Excellent information and incredibly detailed on a slew of scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 That'd be cool, but boring. Uncertainty adds to the excitement. That would be horrible. I think we live in the prime period for a weather enthusiast. CC and computer models good enough to make it fun to track long range events without completely spoiling things. I think in 30 years models will be so good our hobby will be observational rather then forecast based Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 That would be horrible. I think we live in the prime period for a weather enthusiast. CC and computer models good enough to make it fun to track long range events without completely spoiling things. I think in 30 years models will be so good our hobby will be observational rather then forecast based I'm entirely unconvinced. They'll get better, but not that much in the grand scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 I'm entirely unconvinced. They'll get better, but not that much in the grand scheme of things. According to Moore's law with processor speeds doubling every two years in 30 years today's room size super computers will be the size of a cell phone. A super computer at that time will be capable of billions of times more calculations then our current ones. I think they will be deadly accurate at that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 BTW METS!!! This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 AC's running today. not here, windows open, nice breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 That'd be cool, but boring. Uncertainty adds to the excitement. no stress though. Blizzard of Jan 96 would be a lock 10 days out...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 According to Moore's law with processor speeds doubling every two years in 30 years today's room size super computers will be the size of a cell phone. A super computer at that time will be capable of billions of times more calculations then our current ones. I think they will be deadly accurate at that time I think the bigger issue is atmospheric sampling. All the supercomputing power in the world won't help you unless you have a clearer picture of starting conditions. Forecasts will obviously continue to improve, as they have for years, but I don't really expect any tipping point in the next few decades where models suddenly become BTTF-esque. Still, I welcome increasingly precise forecasts with open arms. For all the benefits to economy, agriculture, infrastructure, disaster management, etc., we can afford to forfeit some of the 'thrill' in forecasting an uncertain snowstorm... especially since, for 98% of us, forecasting is just tooling around online while we wait for the next set of pretty maps to render. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Jebman is already crying bust in the TX thread about the upcoming rain when we were supposed to get mostly just showers until tomorrow and the worst 2 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Jebman is already crying bust in the TX thread about the upcoming rain when we were supposed to get mostly just showers until tomorrow and the worst 2 days from now. ah yes, the ol favorite premature bust call.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 ah yes, the ol favorite premature bust call....The media loves to hype here as much as anyone, and people are still on a hair trigger after May's deluge. I saw one "computer model" graphic on a local news channel with 22" of rain shown for Waco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 The media loves to hype here as much as anyone, and people are still on a hair trigger after May's deluge. I saw one "computer model" graphic on a local news channel with 22" of rain shown for Waco. my wife is in Dallas for work and she says it's hype city-she was worried her flight would be canceled tomorrow eve...I told her to relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 my wife is in Dallas for work and she says it's hype cityWe can handle whatever falls here unless it's 1-2" per hour repeatedly over multiple hours. The ground is literally bone dry. The grass has gone beyond yellow dry and is literally looking burned. Trees are even drooping over and drying out. Much of the state has gone from soaked to extreme drought in a few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 TIL http://prntly.com/blog/2015/10/22/upstate-ny-predicted-to-face-coldest-winter-ever-recorded/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 What a day for TC porn: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 What a day for TC porn: YYYYYYYYikes..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Patricia is putting on a clinic in the east Pacific, Cat 5. It'll be a devastating hit for Mexico as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The hype machine's ramping up just about as fast as Patricia about the rain on the Austin local stations. http://kxan.com/2014/02/25/daily-forecast-2/ about how it shows 10-14" of rain in an area based on the "NWS projection", when the flood watch we have areawide says 4-8" with spots of 10-12" (as it is, more than enough to grab attention). Plus they show the model output with 17-18" of rain in places (with a caption above that showing "Forecast"). Reminds me of how the media hypes up snow events in NYC. I still remember cracking up at Janice Huff when she showed the 27" of snow on the screen as a "model prediction" before the 2/8/13 storm in Central Park which ended up at about 11". The bad part of this is that if people in their 10-14" area end up with 3" and no impact (since areas in an event like this will have huge 12" rain totals and a few miles away much less), the average viewer will disregard KXAN the next time a real threat happens in their backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 This would probably be enough to get NYC below zero again. http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/10/12/were-closer-to-a-day-after-tomorrow-ice-age-than-we-thought/ I like the note at the bottom "Correction: A previous version of this article misinterpreted aspects of the study. The story has been corrected and substantially revised" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 TIL http://prntly.com/blog/2015/10/22/upstate-ny-predicted-to-face-coldest-winter-ever-recorded/ Had no idea metsfan was writing articles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Holy sh*t Hurricane Patricia 12:30 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 Location: 16.5°N 105.3°W Moving: NNW at 10 mph Min pressure: 892 mb Max sustained: 185 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Hurricane Patricia 200MPH!! Holy Sh*t is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Hurricane Patricia 200MPH!! Holy Sh*t is right And 880mb. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Two images from the Delaware Water Gap a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Great shots. The bottom photo reminds me of the Hawks Nest outside of Port Jervis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 And 880mb. Wow. Insane. The only positive I guess is that the terrain in that area will weaken it rapidly. Whoever is on the coast near landfall..I cant imagine what that will be like. sustained 200 mph, gusts near 250. I just picture a super sized, long lasting F4 tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 190 mph 900 mb Going to be a devastating landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Hurricane Patricia 200MPH!! Holy Sh*t is right Whoa. That's some intense hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Probably slightly weaker than the advisory is stating but it really doesn't matter too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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