dmillz25 Posted October 6, 2015 Author Share Posted October 6, 2015 Yes Oh ok that's cool. Hopefully he does make a return. Funny his birthday is a day after mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 It's been the same story for six or seven runs in a row. If it was just the OP that would be easy cause for hesitation. Since nothing else exciting is going on I see no reason why we can't talk about it in banter. Enjoy the hurricane, it's the hurricane you've got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 The southwestward drift over time (that very few models were able to recognize, by the way) and then eventual northeastward movement also helped. A weird looking wind field map for sure.Only the Euro saw how far south this would get.And welcome back, John. Hope you post this winter, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Great to see you posting, John. We truly miss your knowledgable posts on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Enjoy the hurricane, it's the hurricane you've got. Still has really nice symmetry and cold tops for being near 40N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 It's really cool to see the SW cutoff low retrograding and doing a 360 under that very strong blocking ridge to the north. https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/651523586583318528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Reminder for a rocket launch 7pm EDT this evening from Virginia. Barium Strontium to be released to make glowing clouds. http://www.space.com...pr=17610706465 Viewing conditions being obscured with clouds look uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 i'd explain to yanksfan why using a raw 2m temp plot from an ensemble mean is a bad idea but none of it would sink in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 i'd explain to yanksfan why using a raw 2m temp plot from an ensemble mean is a bad idea but none of it would sink in Show me a piece of current guidance that has widespread 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Show me a piece of current guidance that has widespread 80's.your inability to look beyond raw model output is exactly the problem!!! ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 your inability to look beyond raw model output is exactly the problem!!! ugh. I see nothing in the pattern that would suggest temps are that far above average. I see Northwesterly winds the next few days with a trough pushing to our South. Then some brief Southwesterly flow Sunday/Monday that could give us a small temperature spike followed by more troughing early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 your inability to look beyond raw model output is exactly the problem!!! ugh. show us the thinking that gets some to 80 on Friday. We could all stand to learn something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 show us the thinking that gets some to 80 on Friday. We could all stand to learn something. I'm curious myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 show us the thinking that gets some to 80 on Friday. We could all stand to learn something. All I can think of is the Southwesterly flow on Sunday into Monday that will be there as the trough pushes offshore. 850's do get to the +12-16C range on the 12z Euro, but the problem is that we're almost in mid October by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 NWS has a high of 76 for Friday for the city. Getting to 80 degrees is not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 NWS has a high of 76 for Friday for the city. Getting to 80 degrees is not impossible. The Euro has max temps in the low to mid 70's. That's a lot different than achieving 80 degrees on October 13th. Either way, it's only a two day warm up. Then the hammer really drops at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 NWS has a high of 76 for Friday for the city. Getting to 80 degrees is not impossible. True, however it would appear that clouds and possible showers arrive after noon. If that happens, good luck with 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 True, however it would appear that clouds and possible showers arrive after noon. If that happens, good luck with 80 Getting my engagement pictures taken that afternoon in Verona Park so I am hoping for some nice afternoon weather. I really don't see anything that would suggest cloudy or showery either. The GFS and Euro are bone dry through day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 I'd tap that and take my chances... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Hi-res Nam gets really close in a few spots: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Getting my engagement pictures taken that afternoon in Verona Park so I am hoping for some nice afternoon weather. I really don't see anything that would suggest cloudy or showery either. The GFS and Euro are bone dry through day 9. upton's going showers Fri and Fri night for NYC. I do agree though, models are trending drier so we may see this forecast dry out a bit. - Friday A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. South wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Friday Night Showers likely, mainly before 8pm. Cloudy, with a low around 54. Southwest wind 7 to 14 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Getting my engagement pictures taken that afternoon in Verona Park so I am hoping for some nice afternoon weather. I really don't see anything that would suggest cloudy or showery either. The GFS and Euro are bone dry through day 9. Euro is not bone dry. It has .10"-.25" from 2pm to 8pm Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 upton's going showers Fri and Fri night. I do agree though, models are trending drier so we may see this forecast dry out a bit. - Friday A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. South wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Friday Night Showers likely, mainly before 8pm. Cloudy, with a low around 54. Southwest wind 7 to 14 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Euro has rain. Not sure where he saw bone dry for Friday afternoon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Euro is not bone dry. It has .10"-.25" from 2pm to 8pm Friday afternoon.We're talking about different days. I have been talking about Monday since that looks to be the warmest day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Euro has rain. Not sure where he saw bone dry for Friday afternoon: A scattered shower at best. Most people will see nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 I agree about seeing 80s for Friday at least, but it'll be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 I agree about seeing 80s for Friday at least, but it'll be close. I think the hot spots like EWR and parts of the city get very close. Then thunderstorms/rain for most in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 A scattered shower at best. Most people will see nothing. Today's model runs would agree with you. Average output 0 to maybe .25 at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 The southwestward drift over time (that very few models were able to recognize, by the way) and then eventual northeastward movement also helped. A weird looking wind field map for sure. Welcome back! Please stay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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