tdp146 Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDFLASH FLOOD WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC334 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...CENTRAL RICHLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...* UNTIL 630 PM EDT* AT 331 PM EDT...MEDIA REPORTS REPORTED A DAM HAS BEEN BREACHED INTHE ROCKY FORD LAKE NEAR THE FOREST LAKE AREA. THIS FLOWS INTOGILLS CREAK AND DOWN TOWARDS LAKE KATHARINE.FLASH FLOODING IS GOING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... FORESTACRES AND ARCADIA LAKES ALONG WITH AREAS DOWNSTREAM.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 The Forest Lake Dam is a 360 acre dam and I believe that is the one that has been breached Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Definitely one of the more bizzare wind history maps you'll ever see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Definitely one of the more bizzare wind history maps you'll ever see. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Definitely one of the more bizzare wind history maps you'll ever see. Not a good track for swell generation for the NE. You want to see a storm moving twords to create a captured fetch. Still we had epic waves for 4 days from the nor'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 The July to September warming in the Tropical Atlantic leading up to the time of Joaquin was the greatest on record since 1948. You can also see the rapid SST warming right along the storm track and the greatest AMO rise from August to September on record. https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/651081042627989504?lang=en http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 The GFS and its ensembles are still very bullish on tropical development in about 10 days over the Western Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Definitely one of the more bizzare wind history maps you'll ever see. I see what you're getting at here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Weenies aside, that really is a disorienting wind history. The slender loop near the Bahamas gives the impression of a large hurricane having appeared out of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Weenies aside, that really is a disorienting wind history. The slender loop near the Bahamas gives the impression of a large hurricane having appeared out of nowhere. High ACE special. https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/651174297881305092?lang=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Weenies aside, that really is a disorienting wind history. The slender loop near the Bahamas gives the impression of a large hurricane having appeared out of nowhere. It more or less did, because it barely moved from the time that it was first classified to the time that it reached hurricane status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Remarkable loop on many levels. In addition to the moisture plume feeding in to the Southeast States in tandem with the upper level low, you can really visualize the small escape route that Joaquin took into the Atlantic. Meteorologically, despite the fact that Joaquin escaped seaward, a tremendous evolution of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 It more or less did, because it barely moved from the time that it was first classified to the time that it reached hurricane status. The southwestward drift over time (that very few models were able to recognize, by the way) and then eventual northeastward movement also helped. A weird looking wind field map for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Remarkable loop on many levels. In addition to the moisture plume feeding in to the Southeast States in tandem with the upper level low, you can really visualize the small escape route that Joaquin took into the Atlantic. Meteorologically, despite the fact that Joaquin escaped seaward, a tremendous evolution of events. Good to see you posting John. It's been a record breaking pattern on several fronts. 1000 year rainfall over South Carolina and record rains in Death Valley. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS, NV 514 PM PDT MON OCT 5 2015 ...RECORD RAINFALL FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD FOR OCTOBER AT DEATH VALLEY... A TOTAL OF 0.55 INCH OF PRECIPITATION FELL FROM 8 AM ON OCTOBER 4TH TO 8 AM OCTOBER 5TH AT THE OFFICIAL DEATH VALLEY WEATHER STATION AT THE FURNACE CREEK VISITOR CENTER. THIS SET A NEW 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION RECORD FOR THIS PERIOD. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 0.20 INCH IN 1912. THE 0.55 INCH MEASURED ALSO TIES THE PREVIOUS 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION RECORD FOR DEATH VALLEY FIRST SET FROM OCTOBER 16-17, 1934 AND THEN TIED ON OCTOBER 3-4, 1972. THIS ALSO TIES OCTOBER 1934 FOR THE 4TH WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD AT DEATH VALLEY. THE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR OCTOBER IS 0.07 INCH. THE ABOVE INFORMATION IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO A FINAL REVIEW. FOR FINAL CERTIFIED DATA PLEASE CONTACT THE OFFICE OF NOAA'S NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI) LOCATED IN ASHEVILLE, NORTH CAROLINA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 The southwestward drift over time (that very few models were able to recognize, by the way) and then eventual northeastward movement also helped. A weird looking wind field map for sure. John, Great to see you posting here. I hope this time you are back for good. You were one hell of a moderator and one of the most knowledgeable posters on the site, degreed mets included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 High ACE special. https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/651174297881305092?lang=en Very impressive, but I think it's interesting that Igor '10 (the last 135 kt storm) generated over 40 units of ACE, compared to 25 as-yet for Joaquin. Even large, powerful, and slow-moving hurricanes close to the continent can't generate ACE like cookie-cutter Cape Verde systems. I think IKE is often a better yardstick than ACE, but it's not nearly as widely calculated and reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Good to see you posting John. It's been a record breaking pattern on several fronts. 1000 year rainfall over South Carolina and record rains in Death Valley. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS, NV 514 PM PDT MON OCT 5 2015 ...RECORD RAINFALL FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD FOR OCTOBER AT DEATH VALLEY... A TOTAL OF 0.55 INCH OF PRECIPITATION FELL FROM 8 AM ON OCTOBER 4TH TO 8 AM OCTOBER 5TH AT THE OFFICIAL DEATH VALLEY WEATHER STATION AT THE FURNACE CREEK VISITOR CENTER. THIS SET A NEW 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION RECORD FOR THIS PERIOD. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 0.20 INCH IN 1912. THE 0.55 INCH MEASURED ALSO TIES THE PREVIOUS 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION RECORD FOR DEATH VALLEY FIRST SET FROM OCTOBER 16-17, 1934 AND THEN TIED ON OCTOBER 3-4, 1972. THIS ALSO TIES OCTOBER 1934 FOR THE 4TH WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD AT DEATH VALLEY. THE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR OCTOBER IS 0.07 INCH. THE ABOVE INFORMATION IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO A FINAL REVIEW. FOR FINAL CERTIFIED DATA PLEASE CONTACT THE OFFICE OF NOAA'S NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI) LOCATED IN ASHEVILLE, NORTH CAROLINA. Cut off lows are capable of producing some insane rainfall totals by themselves. Couple that with a tropical moisture feed from an offshore hurricane and you have a recipe for prolific rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Very impressive, but I think it's interesting that Igor '10 (the last 135 kt storm) generated over 40 units of ACE, compared to 25 as-yet for Joaquin. Even large, powerful, and slow-moving hurricanes close to the continent can't generate ACE like cookie-cutter Cape Verde systems. I think IKE is often a better yardstick than ACE, but it's not nearly as widely calculated and reported. Yes, IKE is a great measuring tool for overall impacts. Cut off lows are capable of producing some insane rainfall totals by themselves. Couple that with a tropical moisture feed from an offshore hurricane and you have a recipe for prolific rainfall. Historic events can occur when a deep tropical moisture feed/hurricane interacts with a closed low under a strong block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Im already tracking the tropical threat in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 The 12z GEFS are loaded. Post hour 300 you have about 20 members clustered East of the GA coast and about 20 members clustered East of the Yucatan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 The 12z GEFS are loaded. Post hour 300 you have about 20 members clustered East of the GA coast and about 20 members clustered East of the Yucatan. Wow huge signal but its way out there in weenie land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Wow huge signal but its way out there in weenie land. Yeah, check out the spaghetti, some deep members in there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 big deal, that area is favored in oct and the gfs can be tc-happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 big deal, that area is favored in oct and the gfs can be tc-happy It's been the same story for six or seven runs in a row. If it was just the OP that would be easy cause for hesitation. Since nothing else exciting is going on I see no reason why we can't talk about it in banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Look how tight the clustering is. Yes, I know this is 384 hours out. The consistency and continuity among the ensembles has to mean something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 The tropical development is on the 12z ECMWF OP. Slow development in the Western Caribbean days 8-10. Pretty much lock step with the GFS OP and its ensembles. Still a long way to go, but confidence increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 6, 2015 Author Share Posted October 6, 2015 Is that the earthlight everyone was talking about before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 6, 2015 Share Posted October 6, 2015 Is that the earthlight everyone was talking about before? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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