bluewave Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 I cant imagine what 20 inches of rain in nyc would look like It would be crazy since all it took was 2-3 inches to do this in around an hour. You can imagine if that Islip 13+ deluge happened right over NYC. http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/08/08/flooding-cripples-subway-system/?_r=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 26.5" max on radar in SC so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC950 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015...SEVERAL RAINFALL RECORDS SET AT CHARLESTON INTERNATIONALAIRPORT AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...CHARLESTON AIRPORT RAINFALL RECORDSGREATEST 1-DAY RAINFALL.....11.50 INCHES SET ON OCTOBER 3 2015OLD 1-DAY RAINFALL RECORD...10.52 INCHES SET ON SEPTEMBER 21 1998GREATEST 2-DAY RAINFALL.....13.11 INCHES SET ON OCTOBER 2-3 2015OLD 2-DAY RAINFALL RECORD...11.10 INCHES SET ON JUNE 10-11 1973GREATEST 3-DAY RAINFALL.....14.48 INCHES SET ON OCTOBER 1-3 2015OLD 3-DAY RAINFALL RECORD...11.95 INCHES SET ON JUNE 9-11 1973GREATEST MONTHLY OCTOBER RAINFALL..16.61 INCHES THROUGH 9 AM TODAYOLD MONTHLY OCTOBER RAINFALL.......12.11 INCHES SET IN 1994DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON RAINFALL RECORDGREATEST 3-DAY RAINFALL.....13.80 INCHES SET ON OCTOBER 1-3 2015OLD 3-DAY RAINFALL RECORD...12.39 INCHES SET ON JUNE 9-11 1973GREATEST MONTHLY OCTOBER RAINFALL..14.25 INCHES THROUGH 430 AM TODAYOLD MONTHLY OCTOBER RAINFALL.......11.74 INCHES SET IN 1959$33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Dams are starting to breach. Truly at a catostrophic situation unfolding. NWS using the term flash flood emergency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SSW SHADOWMOSS 32.81N 80.09W10/04/2015 M22.47 INCH CHARLESTON SC COCORAHSSTORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OVER LAST 60 HOURS. RESULTEDIN SEVERE FLOODING... MANY HOMES SURROUNDED BY WATER ANDMANY ROADS IMPASSABLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=cae&gage=gils1 Historic Crests(1) 9.43 ft on 07/24/1997(2) 9.33 ft on 08/12/1986(3) 8.79 ft on 10/01/1964(4) 8.66 ft on 02/24/1979(5) 8.65 ft on 10/23/1990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0551 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1026 AM EDT SUN OCT 04 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CAROLINA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY VALID 041415Z - 042015Z SUMMARY...A HISTORIC RAINFALL EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES CONTINUING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE AND LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEFINED AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FEEDING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HAS BEEN SLOWLY PIVOTING IN A CYCLONIC FASHION TO MORE OF A WEST/EAST ORIENTATION. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE PERSISTENT AND INTENSE BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO PIVOT VERY SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH HAS TAKEN THE WORST OF THE RAINFALL OUT OF THE CHARLESTON METROPOLITAN AREA FOR THE TIME BEING. THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME IS COINCIDING WITH TREMENDOUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH IS FOSTERING VIGOROUS ASCENT IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 1.8 TO 2.3 INCH PW VALUES AS PER GOES-SOUNDER AND GPS DATA. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE AGAIN IS ORIGINATING FROM HURRICANE JOAQUIN WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY THE CIRA LAYERED PW PRODUCT. A RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS NOTED TOO NEAR THE COASTAL FRONT AND OFFSHORE...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG NEAR THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORT INTO THE BOUNDARY ARE CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES...WHICH ARE NEAR 3 INCHES/HR WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE BANDS NEAR THE COAST. HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE ON TOP OF AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN WELL IN EXCESS 12 INCHES OF RAIN...AND ISOLATED AREAS OF OVER 20 INCHES. THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND WITH A STRONGER FOCUS CLOSER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NOTED. THESE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL EXACERBATE WHAT IS ALREADY A SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING EVENT WITH SEVERE AND LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Dams are starting to breach. Truly at a catostrophic situation unfolding. NWS using the term flash flood emergency. We had a flash flood emergency in Austin on Memorial Day, when we were getting deluged. Two creeks that cross through downtown overflowed and caused major damage. That was the same weekend that the Blanco River (about 25-30 miles south of me) reached a record crest and essentially wiped out several towns in its way. That is only used in the most devastating situations. Horrendous situation unfolding in SC, and it's only getting worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Wow how Charleston has broken its October rainfall record by 4 inches in just 3 days and 9 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Looks pretty stormy on the Jersey shore. How's the erosion down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 You think the flooding is bad there? The gators are starting to swim into flooded neighborhoods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 What app is that? Radarscope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 RadarscopeThanks. I'll get it when I have enough money. Won't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 The crazy pictures in the SE subform made me be happy that we missed the hurricane. Crazy what's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 observer near Cainhoy, SC reported a storm total rain amount of 26.88 inches #chswx #scwx Favorite More Spotter reports storm total of 25.50 inches of rain in Mount Pleasant, SC #chswx #scwx Wettest 1 & 2 day rainfall amounts at Columbia, SC since rainfall records began in Columbia in 1887. #SEFlood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Look at the massive area of over 25" estimated by radar. And the rain is still streaming in. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ltx&product=NTP&overlay=11101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Look at the massive area of over 25" estimated by radar. And the rain is still streaming in. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ltx&product=NTP&overlay=11101111&loop=no Large area where 1000 year rainfall totals have been met. http://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/pfds_map_cont.html?bkmrk=sc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 6z GFS Hour 384. It's coming ( eventually ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Yeah lol, our tropical threats may not be completely over. This one originates in the Caribbean, close to where Sandy came from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 would not be surprised to see one more tropical threat for the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 would not be surprised to see one more tropical threat for the US. We do have 91L out in the Central Atlantic, although it doesn't look great and the general model consensus is for a recurve North of the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Cape Verde season is about done, most will recurve this time of year...need a carribean, gulf or bahamas genesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 I'd say that's a pretty good signal on the ensembles for Western Caribbean development in about 10-14 days. We've had some false alarms over the past month or so. Last time I believe it developed in the Pacific instead. Anyway the mean motion is to the North, Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Ensembles split but perhaps we would have a -NAO to work with come the third week of October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 Mjo is expected to go into 7-8-1 by mid to late month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 The gfs always thinks it's December in October in its long range. Really nice weather coming up and the recent rains and cooler temps should help foster our foliage nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 The GFS continues to love SW Caribbean development in 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 No shame in posting a little weather porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 let's check back on the 21st and see what happened-just for the fun of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 5, 2015 Share Posted October 5, 2015 I'd say that's a fairly strong signal lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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