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Met Autumn BANTER


dmillz25

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The dune thing was a such a mess. It could have prevented soooooo much damage.

The newsday map is actually pretty conservative for my area. It shows no water one block which vertically wasn't the case

 

Long Beach will finally get a continuous dune system along with an extended and elevated beach.

The jetties are going to also get rebuilt. I believe the project is set to begin by 2016 if everything

goes according to plans.

 

http://www.nan.usace.army.mil/Missions/CivilWorks/ProjectsinNewYork/JonesInlettoEastRockawayInlet(LongBeach).aspx

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Long Beach will finally get a continuous dune system along with an extended and elevated beach.

The jetties are going to also get rebuilt. I believe the project is set to begin by 2016 if everything

goes according to plans.

http://www.nan.usace.army.mil/Missions/CivilWorks/ProjectsinNewYork/JonesInlettoEastRockawayInlet(LongBeach).aspx

Good idea. About time they did something down there. Hopefully it helps.

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Guest Pamela

The moral crap will be at least 24 hour time out from now on.

 

I do not see that as a specifically proscribed topic per the board rules...and generally banter threads are afforded more liberality than any other...

 

 

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Good idea. About time they did something down there. Hopefully it helps.

 

Sandy finally convinced them that they had to do something. They had an opportunity to do a similar project 

well before Sandy, but council meetings were filled with loud arguments against the particular plans.

Long Beach is a great place, but the political process there has left much to be desired.

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Guest Pamela

Imagine how crappy life must still be if you are the captain of a freighter trying to get across the North Atlantic.

 

 

Since roughly 50% of the people on earth go to sleep hungry at night, life is fairly crappy for more than you would think on the planet.

 

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These last few days have reminded me of how much I enjoy tracking a good storm, regardless of the final outcome. I almost enjoy the ride more than the actual event. 

 

I am sure the Euro will be dry humped by many for the rest of the year now. And I am sure it will be countered by all those that are still butt hurt about missing out on the blizzard last year. 

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These last few days have reminded me of how much I enjoy tracking a good storm, regardless of the final outcome. I almost enjoy the ride more than the actual event.

I am sure the Euro will be dry humped by many for the rest of the year now. And I am sure it will be countered by all those that are still butt hurt about missing out on the blizzard last year.

This was one of the most fun tropical systems to track. Once it exploded in strength in the face of pretty solid shear, you knew it was going to get interesting.

..and who doesn't love a good dry hump of the euro when it's showing the goods?

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Guest Pamela

Leave the moral bs home. Im not as nice as rjay, stop clogging model threads with this crap or youll be gone.

 

Your gruffness would give Stanley Kowalski a run for his money.  I have disliked you from the day I first encountered you on these boards years ago.

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These last few days have reminded me of how much I enjoy tracking a good storm, regardless of the final outcome. I almost enjoy the ride more than the actual event.

I am sure the Euro will be dry humped by many for the rest of the year now. And I am sure it will be countered by all those that are still butt hurt about missing out on the blizzard last year.

well said !
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These last few days have reminded me of how much I enjoy tracking a good storm, regardless of the final outcome. I almost enjoy the ride more than the actual event. 

 

I am sure the Euro will be dry humped by many for the rest of the year now. And I am sure it will be countered by all those that are still butt hurt about missing out on the blizzard last year. 

 

The bottom line is that the Euro is the highest scoring model. The Euro missing the 20 inch snow line by 50 to 75 miles

was a much smaller error than the other models missing Joaquin by 500 to 750 miles too far east. IMHO the last time

that the Euro had a significant miss was the notorious initialization error run with the Boxing Day blizzard. While no 

model is perfect, the Euro easily wins the numbers game by being on top.

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These last few days have reminded me of how much I enjoy tracking a good storm, regardless of the final outcome. I almost enjoy the ride more than the actual event. 

 

I am sure the Euro will be dry humped by many for the rest of the year now. And I am sure it will be countered by all those that are still butt hurt about missing out on the blizzard last year. 

 

Technically the Euro isn't that much better than the GFS, but if there's a consistent trend from the model, it's most likely going to be true. Also the Euro wasn't that wrong when it came to the Blizzard earlier this year. A 50 mile difference in Montana wouldn't have made a difference. A 50 mile difference in the NYC metro pissed off a lot of people.

 

At the end of the day, it's incredible that we can prepare for blizzards and hurricanes a week in advance now. Initially the Euro and GFS signaled a phase event. The Euro shifted and the GFS corrected soon after. Imagine where we would have been 10 years ago.

 

With all of that said, the issues the models have had with complex events in recent years makes me believe that climate change is making it very difficult for them to predict the weather. 

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The bottom line is that the Euro is the highest scoring model. The Euro missing the 20 inch snow line by 50 to 75 miles

was a much smaller error than the other models missing Joaquin by 500 to 750 miles too far east. IMHO the last time

that the Euro had a significant miss was the notorious initialization error run with the Boxing Day blizzard. While no

model is perfect, the Euro easily wins the numbers game by being on top.

But unfortunately that 75 mile error effected thousands and thousands of people..

For a few runs it had the entire state of NJ getting 2-3 feet 48 hrs out.

I'm not saying it's a bad model, but we finally get DR NO In our corner for a big snow event and it ends up being wrong...Lol

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But unfortunately that 75 mile error effected thousands and thousands of people..

For a few runs it had the entire state of NJ getting 2-3 feet 48 hrs out.

I'm not saying it's a bad model, but we finally get DR NO In our corner for a big snow event and it ends up being wrong...Lol

 

The funny thing is that we routinely accept the GFS eastward bias on coastal storms like with the 

February 2013 blizzard. I wonder how much the GFS doing better with the end of January event

was just a broken clock being right twice a day type of phenomenon? I guess that we may never

know.

 

From the January 1996 Blizzard:

 

 

THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS RESOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES BY SATURDAY JANUARY 6 (DAY 3) AND INTO THE PLAINS ON SUN JANUARY 7 (DAY 4). THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE MOST DEFINITION TO THIS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY HAS A 1010 MB LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN GA/AL BORDER ON SUN JANUARY 7 (DAY 4) AND BOMBING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST (984 MB) BY MON JANUARY 8 (DAY 5). THE MRF IS MUCH MORE FRAGMENTED AND POSITIVELY TILTED WITH THIS TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY HAS ONLY A WEAK 1014 MB WAVE SHEARING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST ON SUN JANUARY 7 (DAY 4). THE RESOLUTION OF SHORT WAVES IN THE BASE OF TROUGHS IS AN AREA THE MRF OFTEN DOES A POOR JOB WITH....WE ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF."

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http://6abc.com/home/house-swept-into-flood-waters-in-cape-may-co/1014674/

Kinda why I would say this counts for the first nor Easter contest, low pressure or not.

The flooding in the back bays around here is about borderline moderate. Comparing to Sandy (because we will compare everything to Sandy for years) the water level is still only about what it was 3-4 high tide cycles before sandy's worst.

Dam

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Really crazy what's going on in SC. Well modeled in advance.

And stilll coming down.

SOUTH CAROLINA

...BERKELEY COUNTY...

3 NNE HUGER 14.68 100 AM 10/04 USGS SITE

5 E GOOSE CREEK 11.26 130 AM 10/04 USGS SITE

...CHARLESTON COUNTY...

3 ENE BOONE HALL PLA 17.10 1231 AM 10/04 SOCIAL MEDIA

CHARLESTON AIRPORT 14.92 200 AM 10/04 ASOS

CHARLESTON 13.88 130 AM 10/04 OFFICIAL NWS OBS

2 NNW GARRIS LANDING 13.83 130 AM 10/04 RAWS

&&

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