IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I would love to see this take a hook right into the coast, just to spite all the people on this board today that want to declare something a foregone conclusion three days in advance (Of course causing the least amount of death and destruction possible) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Saw a picture of low lying areas of Long Beach already flooding this morning. Joaquin is still 1000 MILES AWAY and this is happening. That was a combination of the easterly fetch occurring at the same time of the highest astronomical tides of the year. You have to love these drone aerial videos of Long Beach. https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=846641035432621&id=378345352262194 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 it's ok that joaquin is going to miss... it gives shore communities more time to rebuild and then get even more devastated when the next one hits At least I can get in one more vacation in Ocean City before it's gone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Initially I thought it would be a Jersey hooker, I still kinda do, but between Ida's remains forcing it south and the placement of the ridge to the north, there's really only two obvious options. OTS or OBX. Having said all of that, the 12z Euro has put the Maritime High further east. Was over Nova Scotia on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I would love to see this take a hook right into the coast, just to spite all the people on this board today that want to declare something a foregone conclusion three days in advance (Of course causing the least amount of death and destruction possible) YOU MEAN HOOK 'LEFT' lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Prolific rainfall amounts to still being in a drought when all is said and done. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 it's ok that joaquin is going to miss... it gives shore communities more time to rebuild and then get even more devastated when the next one hits Too bad they didn't build most of the Shore Shore communities up high enough when they were developed over the last 100+ years. There were areas of the South Shore that stayed above water even in Sandy. Sections of Point Lookout near the ocean that had enough fill and sand placed there to avoid the flooding since they were high enough up. Also sections of Atlantic Beach were build up high enough to avoid the flooding. There was a half mile stretch were the flooding went to none in Atlantic Beach to 4-6 ft deep around some residences in the West End of Long Beach which were inundated. Some of the old timers also built their homes on manmade hills in Long Beach which avoided the flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Prolific rainfall amounts to still being in a drought when all is said and done. lolI said the Moderate drought would be gone... Does going to "Abnormally Dry" count? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 YOU MEAN HOOK 'LEFT' lol. by right I didn't mean direction lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Prolific rainfall amounts to still being in a drought when all is said and done. lol The little streams in my hood have already dried up again after my 2.78" of rain this week. Drought uncancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Too bad they didn't build most of the Shore Shore communities up high enough when they were developed over the last 100+ years. There were areas of the South Shore that stayed above water even in Sandy. Sections of Point Lookout near the ocean that had enough fill and sand placed there to avoid the flooding since they were high enough up. Also sections of Atlantic Beach were build up high enough to avoid the flooding. There was a half mile stretch were the flooding went to none in Atlantic Beach to 4-6 ft deep around some residences in the West End of Long Beach which were inundated. Some of the old timers also built their homes on manmade hills in Long Beach which avoided the flooding. They've done storm surge maps on this and all the sand in the world would be futile against a legitimate 2 or 3 hurricane several thousand feet north of the water... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 They've done storm surge maps on this and all the sand in the world would be futile against a legitimate 2 or 3 hurricane several thousand feet north of the water... This may prove illustrative... http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/nys_storm_surge_zones.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 This may prove illustrative... http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/nys_storm_surge_zones.pdf Since the area is a good deal more built up than in '38, damage would be in the billions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Too bad they didn't build most of the Shore Shore communities up high enough when they were developed over the last 100+ years. There were areas of the South Shore that stayed above water even in Sandy. Sections of Point Lookout near the ocean that had enough fill and sand placed there to avoid the flooding since they were high enough up. Also sections of Atlantic Beach were build up high enough to avoid the flooding. There was a half mile stretch were the flooding went to none in Atlantic Beach to 4-6 ft deep around some residences in the West End of Long Beach which were inundated. Some of the old timers also built their homes on manmade hills in Long Beach which avoided the flooding. My house in wantagh is three blocks from canals and we were fine during Sandy. A little water in the street but it never even went over the curb. The furthest south point in Bellmore that has some huge multimillion dollar houses built in the 80s and high on fill also didn't flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Anymore recent surge studies? That one was done in 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 My house in wantagh is three blocks from canals and we were fine during Sandy. A little water in the street but it never even went over the curb. The furthest south point in Bellmore that has some huge multimillion dollar houses built in the 80s and high on fill also didn't flood Sandy was not a 2 nor a 3 nor did it pass over the Long Island...if your post was for informational purposes, fine. If it was to try to argue against the points I made, it failed to effectively do so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Anymore recent surge studies? That one was done in 2005. The laws of physics are generally constants in this dimension... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Sandy was not a 2 nor a 3 nor did it pass over the Long Island...if your post was for informational purposes, fine. If it was to try to argue against the points I made, it failed to effectively do so... No it had nothing to do with you. Obviously Sandy was far from a worst case senerio for the island. Something like 38, 50 miles further west and my house would definitly flood. I was just showing the importance of fill an raising elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 They've done storm surge maps on this and all the sand in the world would be futile against a legitimate 2 or 3 hurricane several thousand feet north of the water... The Sandy flood maps published in Newsday show the lucky spots that I mentioned which were spared the flooding in Sandy along the South Shore. But there is little that you can do to prevent against a direct hit form a Cat 3 like 1938 at high tide. http://www.newsday.com/long-island/sandy/sandy-flooding-on-long-island-1.4298061 My house in wantagh is three blocks from canals and we were fine during Sandy. A little water in the street but it never even went over the curb. The furthest south point in Bellmore that has some huge multimillion dollar houses built in the 80s and high on fill also didn't flood Yeah, the old timers in Long Beach knew to build their houses up on hills with steps up to the first level to prevent against flooding. The new developers that came only cared about making a quick buck and built the slope down driveways into basements. The photo that I took below shows how badly that strategy worked out for the homeowners that bought from those developers. The second one was built up on a manmade hill and you can see the salt water line below the first floor level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 The Sandy flood maps published in Newsday show the lucky spots that I mentioned which were spared the flooding in Sandy along the South Shore. But there is little that you can do to prevent against a direct hit form a Cat 3 like 1938 at high tide. http://www.newsday.com/long-island/sandy/sandy-flooding-on-long-island-1.4298061 Yeah, the old timers in Long Beach knew to build their houses up on hills with steps up to the first level to prevent against flooding. The new developers that came only cared about making a quick buck and built the slope down driveways into basements. The photo that I took below shows how badly that strategy worked out for the homeowners that bought from those developers. The second one was built up on a manmade hill and you can see the salt water line below the first floor level. Sandy9.jpg SR10.jpg I remember seeing somewhere a flood depth map as well, not sure where it is now. My neighborhood (near the bay by Laurelton) was one of the worst hit-about 3 feet of water in my house and even worse north of City Hall and much worse in the West End and Canals as well as near the hospital. Generally, places closer to the ocean had shallower flooding than near the bay, although the force of the ocean devastated places close by with sand and wave action. The bottom floors of the condos on Broadway were essentially empty shells or filled with mounds of sand along with cars/debris thrown everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I remember seeing somewhere a flood depth map as well, not sure where it is now. My neighborhood (near the bay by Laurelton) was one of the worst hit-about 3 feet of water in my house and even worse north of City Hall and much worse in the West End and Canals as well as near the hospital. Generally, places closer to the ocean had shallower flooding than near the bay, although the force of the ocean devastated places close by with sand and wave action. The bottom floors of the condos on Broadway were essentially empty shells or filled with mounds of sand along with cars/debris thrown everywhere. Yeah, the ocean side of the barrier island is higher than the bay side. It's too bad that the politics in Long Beach prevented the city from building a protective dune system along the beach. The dunes in the West End and East End were flattened since they were too narrow and short. People came to council meetings protesting the plans that were floated for building taller dunes. They were all worried about the dunes obstructing their ocean views. The million dollar+ section behind the the much higher Lido dunes did better with maybe a foot of water backing up from the bay with no surge damage from any waves. Those dunes were so much stronger that they weren't breached. The Lido Towers with no real dune protection was completely flooded out with plenty of wave damage less than 1/2 mile west of the Lido dunes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yeah, the ocean side of the barrier island is higher than the bay side. It's too bad that the politics in Long Beach prevented the city from building a protective dune system along the beach. The dunes in the West End and East End were flattened since they were too narrow and short. People came to council meetings protesting the plans that were floated for building taller dunes. They were all worried about the dunes obstructing their ocean views. The million dollar+ section behind the the much higher Lido dunes did better with maybe a foot of water backing up from the bay with no surge damage from any waves. Those dunes were so much stronger that they weren't breached. The Lido Towers with no real dune protection was completely flooded out with plenty of wave damage less than 1/2 mile west of the Lido dunes. The dune thing was a such a mess. It could have prevented soooooo much damage. The newsday map is actually pretty conservative for my area. It shows no water one block which vertically wasn't the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 No idea if this is the right place to post this, but after getting a brief education on 4chan and the underbelly of the internet, I am glad that my online hobby is following the weather. God Bless those poor souls in Oregon who had no chance to defend themselves against a truly deranged person. Again, I am sorry if this is the wrong thread. I have never been at a loss for words, but after reading through the various posts on that sites screen grab, encouraging the shooting, I am truly concerned for the direction of our Nation and the souls of our youth. I haven't had the pleasure of being a parent yet, but I will do all that I can to lead them in a positive direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 it's ok that joaquin is going to miss... it gives shore communities more time to rebuild and then get even more devastated when the next one hitslol Classic forky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I think mobile posters may be the new #s posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 we went from warm and dry to cool and wet in a hurry...Usually a good sign for the winter...The fall deluge I was looking for is a possibility now...Cool ne winds for a few days could be a harbinger to what will come during the winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Nothing. Lol yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Lol Metsfan posts an observation in the model thread and a model result in the obs thread. Going to be a loooooong winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Dear God, please have the GFS OTS, because I don't want to stay up for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 2, 2015 Share Posted October 2, 2015 Lol Metsfan posts an observation in the model thread and a model result in the obs thread. Going to be a loooooong winter. He also thinks Savannah is in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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