IrishRob17 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 That easternsnowman guy keeps telling me inland is where its at this year. I believe the hype.The hype and Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Could be wrong but it looks like TD 11 is consolidating more with some clear signs of shear decreasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 We been saying that the last 10 years eventually it will be correct They probably should not hold their breath... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Not gonna happen. That thing is stronger then Sandy. Which dot forget has an estimated recurrence rate of 500-700 years. It's just overdoing everything Record keeping was not too good prior to say 1950 or so...these estimates about frequency are just that...very rough estimates...and I would take them with a grain of NaCl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Record keeping was not too good prior to say 1950 or so...these estimates about frequency are just that...very rough estimates...and I would take them with a grain of NaCl. I mean look at all the blizzards out over the Long Island the last 15 years or so...probably had more in that span than you had in the entire 1950 - 1995 period. These things are very unpredictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Record keeping was not too good prior to say 1950 or so...these estimates about frequency are just that...very rough estimates...and I would take them with a grain of NaCl. I agree, and when we include effects from AGW on blocking and WAR augmentation, the window shrinks even more. Several major events as far back as the 1600s. http://www.hurricaneville.com/historic.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I agree, and when we include effects from AGW on blocking and WAR augmentation, the window shrinks even more. Several major events as far back as the 1600s. http://www.hurricaneville.com/historic.html I mean obviously the world was a very different place back then...no radar, no satellite, very few observers, very few barometers & thermometers...huge tracts of land completely unmonitored...and almost all of the ocean unmonitored...save for what a sailing vessel might record...so I'm certain that many events that would be deemed "historic" today were never actually recorded subsequent to the founding of Jamestown & the Massachusetts Bay Colony circa 1620. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 image.jpg The NAM only goes out to 84 hrs and that range we all now how crappy it is. We also know how crappy it is for tropical systems. Really I would have expected more from a seasoned met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Now for entertainment purposes, this is one of the juiciest looks I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 How are you gonna use the Nam is justify your idea. I think I'd vouch more for what the HWRF is spewing out over whatever the Nam shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Lol I might have to make some room for refugees down here in Austin if that happens (It won't). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 Now for entertainment purposes, this is one of the juiciest looks I've ever seen. Sheesh even half of that would be crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Sheesh even half of that would be crazyI really really need that dry slot in OCMD to verify! Too bad it won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 image.jpg This may need to be moved to the vendor thread; but whatever Nynjpa weather predicts, one can invariably anticipate the exact opposite coming to pass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 This may need to be moved to the vendor thread; but whatever Nynjpa weather predicts, one can invariably anticipate the exact opposite coming to pass... He even sells shirts about it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 He even sells shirts about it too I think I likely took the wrong career path...if this guy is making money off the weather...heck, I had more knowledge on the subject in utero... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Tonight's 0z GGEM is amazing and loltastic at the same time. Such a cool solution to see even though it's most likely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 Tonight's 0z GGEM is amazing and loltastic at the same time. Such a cool solution to see even though it's most likely wrong. Yeah i just seen it. I was like holy sh!t imagine if that happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Yeah i just seen it. I was like holy sh!t imagine if that happened It would be awful lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 29, 2015 Author Share Posted September 29, 2015 Very weird run by the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'm starting to have flashbacks of the monster blizzard that wasn't from this past season. Not to say the evolution of the potential storm is in anyway similar, only that the models went nuts with prolific totals a few days out before drastically reducing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'm starting to have flashbacks of the monster blizzard that wasn't from this past season. Not to say the evolution of the potential storm is in anyway similar, only that the models went nuts with prolific totals a few days out before drastically reducing them. Which is fine long as OCMD dryslots/is dry for most of Saturday and Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 12z MF ARPEGE (the new French model) is wet...and that's all one really needs to look at...send the other models home: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 12z HWRF brings Joaquin down to 940mb by 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 12z MF ARPEGE (the new French model) is wet...and that's all one really needs to look at...send the other models home: For further insights into this magical & revolutionary model... http://www.euclipse.eu/downloads/Presentaties_EDMF_Delft_juni2011/YB_edmf_meeting_ppt_%5BAlleen-lezen%5D.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChineseFood4Snow Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Quite possibly a very dumb question but what is a PRE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Quite possibly a very dumb question but what is a PRE? Best defined as a coastal front preceding a landfalling tropical cyclone. Their are other factors involved, but it can dump tremendous amounts of rain ahead of the TC track. Kind of like one gigantic deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChineseFood4Snow Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Best defined as a coastal front preceding a landfalling tropical cyclone. Their are other factors involved, but it can dump tremendous amounts of rain ahead of the TC track. Kind of like one gigantic deformation band. Ah, okay...thanks very much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 12z HWRF bombs out. 927.1mb by late Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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