MJO812 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Cfs shows a xmas storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 I'm taking down my AC on Sunday. There's no need for it by that time or the rest of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 I'm taking down my AC on Sunday. There's no need for it by that time or the rest of the year. Josh says otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Josh says otherwiseProbably his reverse psychology. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Cfs shows a xmas storm Pics or it didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Pics or it didn't happen. Cant post pics on my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 I hear the KFC model is showing a very mild and crispy Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Love these dry airmasses this time of year...from 50"s this am to 85 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 I'm starting to worry about these super warm water temps. I think it's almost a given the first half of the winter breaks some hearts at the coast. There is serious rain snow line potential. The one glimmer of hope is that the -epo just dumps cold air and we see a return to nornal or possibly below water temps (locally) Just look at the cold wet spring we didn't have despite near record cold water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 I'm starting to worry about these super warm water temps. I think it's almost a given the first half of the winter breaks some hearts at the coast. There is serious rain snow line potential. The one glimmer of hope is that the -epo just dumps cold air and we see a return to nornal or possibly below water temps (locally) Just look at the cold wet spring we didn't have despite near record cold water I will be shedding the same amount of tears for you guys this Winter as you did for me last year when I was too far inland or too far North for almost every big storm. In all seriousness, water temps as far as rain/snow lines are concerned are way overrated once more than a mile or two inland. If anything, these warm temps will add even more fuel to the Noreaster fire. If we get a lot of coastal huggers (Something I would welcome and expect) than it won't matter if the ocean is frozen over or 60 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 I'm starting to worry about these super warm water temps. I think it's almost a given the first half of the winter breaks some hearts at the coast. There is serious rain snow line potential. The one glimmer of hope is that the -epo just dumps cold air and we see a return to nornal or possibly below water temps (locally) Just look at the cold wet spring we didn't have despite near record cold water chilly waters can add punch to a BDCF but they won't drive the pattern that produces them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 chilly waters can add punch to a BDCF but they won't drive the pattern that produces them That's very true. However in this case warmer water temps can and do influence the placement of the coastal front during given storms. As far as getting the water back to normal again as you said that's a function of the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 That's very true. However in this case warmer water temps can and do influence the placement of the coastal front during given storms. As far as getting the water back to normal again as you said that's a function of the pattern The water can drop to normal range with 1 week of cold weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 I know that it was a very rare case since it was part of the Sandy pattern, but we did very well on 11/7/12 with Ocean temps in the mid 50's. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/storm11072012.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 I know that it was a very rare case since it was part of the Sandy pattern, but we did very well on 11/7/12 with Ocean temps in the mid 50's. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/storm11072012.html That one inch from LGA is the biggest joke. Ag3 posted a pic from the actual airport and there were several inches accumulated there. I had 7 inches of the heaviest paste only 6 blocks from Long Island Sound. It snapped a branch that wrecked the roof of my car (but still drivable.) East Central Queens had between 8 and 9 inches of snow. There were lines hanging so low that when I was driving to work they were scraping the top of my car. It was the craziest thing I had ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 I know that it was a very rare case since it was part of the Sandy pattern, but we did very well on 11/7/12 with Ocean temps in the mid 50's. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/storm11072012.html almost 7" imby on S.I....October 2011 was more unseasonable...years with significant snowfalls before mid November like 1953, 2011 and 12 had hardly any snow in December...1987 had one on the Nov 11th but it had snow at the end of December and more in January...1987-88 started out great but February's storm was mostly rain in the city but over a foot of snow in the Poconos...That winter had a disappointing second half...2012-13 is the only winter with near average seasonal snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 If the winds are coming from a long trek of cold land (NE or NNE), it doesn't really matter how warm the ocean is. If the antecedent airmass is mild or if the winds are more easterly, then the water temps kill snow chances near the coast in December. The contrast between warm ocean and cold land actually drives Nor'easters to be stronger. That's what often sets up these crazy NJ bands like during the Boxing Day 2010 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 That one inch from LGA is the biggest joke. Ag3 posted a pic from the actual airport and there were several inches accumulated there. I had 7 inches of the heaviest paste only 6 blocks from Long Island Sound. It snapped a branch that wrecked the roof of my car (but still drivable.) East Central Queens had between 8 and 9 inches of snow. There were lines hanging so low that when I was driving to work they were scraping the top of my car. It was the craziest thing I had ever seen. Long Beach right on the ocean had half a foot of snow. Nassau County in general had over half a foot. There are numerous pictures around of Sandy related debris in Long Beach caked in snow. In a way though we lucked out. Had the storm been not much further west, there would have been no snow but 60-70+ mph winds and another storm surge. We were actually under another hurricane force wind warning that morning, and any residents still in town were told to get out because there was absolutely no defense against another surge at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 8.4 earthquake in chile. Tsunami warning was issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 8.4 earthquake in chile. Tsunami warning was issuedAlso a Tsunami Warning off the Peru and Ecuador coastlines. I wonder what type of impact it will have on El Niño? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Also a Tsunami Warning off the Peru and Ecuador coastlines. I wonder what type of impact it will have on El Niño? i would think it wouldnt have any effect at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 i would think it wouldnt have any effect at allReally? No water displacement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Really? No water displacement? a tsunami is really a wave of energy traveling through water. its like a really deep wave. the only reason tsunamis are devastating is because when they reach shallow water theres no where for that energy to go but up and forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 a tsunami is really a wave of energy traveling through water. its basically a deep ocean wave. the only reason tsunamis are devastating is because when they reach shallow water theres no where for that energy to go but up and forward.So wouldn't the waters up well? Causing the warm waters to cool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 So wouldn't the waters up well? Causing the warm waters to cool? that i don't know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 that i don't knowThat might be one of those wait-and-see type of deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Flooding reported in parts of Chile. http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/sep/17/chile-earthquake-massive-83-magnitude-tremor-strikes-santiago-live-updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 That might be one of those wait-and-see type of deals. It wouldn't be enough to do anything to the El Nino. The El Nino is also partly an atmospheric response/behavior, so as long as the atmosphere is behaving the way it is, the waters are going to keep their "El Nino equilibrium", so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 It wouldn't be enough to do anything to the El Nino. The El Nino is also partly an atmospheric response/behavior, so as long as the atmosphere is behaving the way it is, the waters are going to keep their "El Nino equilibrium", so to speak.Not even a temporary disruption? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 no way it could do anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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