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The Last Days Of Summer: September 2015 DISCUSSION/OBS


UnionWeatherWx

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Only 0.75" of rain in last 23 days at CPK.    While official 6-10 and 8-14 have us in the above normal precip. zone, the OPs can not even manage to show 1/4 of the 15 day normal.  Confidence is low however at a 2 out of 5 on their scale.

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Going back to Easter 22 weekends or 46 weekend days (Memorial day and 4th of July) I count 41 of 46 days mostly rain free with great spring/summer weather.   This weekend looks to continue the streak at 23 weekends and 44 of 49 nice weekend days w/ labor day.

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Humidity wasn't forecast to fall till later today/evening.

Temps are near/at 80 and probably struggle to rise through the low 80s that'd be an accurate forecast.

Besides the NWS no one was calling for an overall cloudy day, just more clouds than previous days.

 

If temps rose to upper 80s/90. then it'd be kind of a bust, but that wouldn't surprise me either.

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eh, there are breaks behind this first band of clouds. it doesn't look like wall to wall ovc all day

 

Doesn't look like any breaks to me for Long Island or most of NYC's boroughs.

This is a classic backdoor with strong east winds.

Clouds are coming in directly from the east now. From east to west.

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The best short term model we have (not sure why anyone looks at anything else inside of 18 hours), has today's highs near 85-86 degrees near EWR and the by late tonight has temps dropping into the 60s:

 

18z today from the 6z Rgem:

 

ov4Nrn9.png

Its also got a decent burst of light rain/drizzle for Western areas today, so we'll see if that works out or not.

 

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_5.png

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Doesn't look like any breaks to me for Long Island or most of NYC's boroughs.

This is a classic backdoor with strong east winds.

Clouds are coming in directly from the east now. From east to west.

It definitely got darker out there. I wish the GFS forecast from several days ago had verified though. I would have loved 60's for highs.

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The GFS showing a potential for lows in the 40's for the interior tomorrow night, a sight for sore eyes.

 

This is why many people think September has the best weather of the year, warm days, cool nights, low humidity and overall pleasant conditions while the jet is still displaced pretty far North.

 

gfs_T2m_neus_9.png

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