mattinpa Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 The 12z Euro finally shows signs of a trough building in day 9. Glad of that; got to have autumn at some point. The GFS and Euro are still just trying to get the timing right, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Beyond day 10 looks less warm than now, but still above normal temps as the trough remains over the GL with the ridge along the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Beyond day 10 looks less warm, but still above normal as the trough remains over the GL with the ridge along the EC. 2015090212_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png Still it looks much improved. I like seeing the cooler weather moving into the central part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Obviously way out in advance but it's good to see the Euro starting to catch onto the GFS's earlier idea of a pattern change around the 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Still it looks much improved. I like seeing the cooler weather moving into the central part of the country. The EPS are a little warmer, but still have cooler temps over the GL and upper MW. It almost looks like the EC ridge wants to stay planted over those very warm SST's to the east. But the most impressive heat should probably be September 1-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Beyond day 10 looks less warm than now, but still above normal temps as the trough remains over the GL with the ridge along the EC. 2015090212_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png the same old pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 I'm fine with slightly above average temps by mid September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 the same old pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 The 12z Euro finally shows signs of a trough building in day 9. Any day 9-10 runs are a crapshoot. I'm sure the pattern will change eventually but models have a tendency to rush it. As of now the warm and dry pattern looks likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 CPS going above normal temps and above normal precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Any day 9-10 runs are a crapshoot. I'm sure the pattern will change eventually but models have a tendency to rush it. As of now the warm and dry pattern looks likely to continue for the foreseeable future. El Nino Septembers are known for being wet and wild. Eventually the pattern is going to change, and likely on a dime. I bet we go from deep Summer to deep Fall in one shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 El Nino Septembers are known for being wet and wild. Eventually the pattern is going to change, and likely on a dime. I bet we go from deep Summer to deep Fall in one shot. There's more to it then ENSO though but a strong trough near the lakes should help with rain chances later this month. I'm thinking October is when we really see a wilder pattern start to show up; the Nino should continue its rise and really crank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 There's more to it then ENSO though but a strong trough near the lakes should help with rain chances later this month. I'm thinking October is when we really see a wilder pattern start to show up; the Nino should continue its rise and really crank. For the record I fully support warm weather into September and more importantly that Bermuda high staying strong so that we can hopefully keep our Tropical chances alive. Of course we need to have an actual tropical system to track first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 View of the sun burning through some fog over the Long Island Sound this morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Today's Highs TEB: 91 NYC: 91 EWR: 91 LGA: 88 JFK: 85 ISP: 86 New Brunswick: 92 BLM: 85 TTN: 90 PHL: 93 ACY: 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 0.48" rain here past 22 days....Yearly deficit at 6.60". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Today's Highs TEB: 91 NYC: 91 EWR: 91 LGA: 88 JFK: 85 ISP: 86 New Brunswick: 92 BLM: 85 TTN: 90 PHL: 93 ACY: 88 Its a hot US open this yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 And the heat beat goes on...one more day but it will be back for Labor Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Another morning, another +9 minimum departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 NYC has 45 days with a minimum 70 or higher...the record is 61 set in 1906... 61 in 1906 60 in 2005 54 in 1908 52 in 1980 51 in 2013 47 in 2012 46 in 1876 46 in 1959 45 in 2015 and counting... 49 (and counting) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 And the heat beat goes on...one more day but it will be back for Labor Day 2 things to watch the next 3 days - tomorrow remaining more cloudy/cooler than projected (80 streak NYC/EWR/LGA) - Sat looks like another marvelous days and the weekend streak continues - Sunday being warmer than forecast (90's for warmer spots) Looking ahead 90s possible Sun (9/6) - thu (9/10) for places, epsecially metro. Transient cool down by 9/12 - how much at or below normal remains iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Add another 80 on to the pile.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Park at 88, Newark at 89 before 12 pm already. Looks safe for a fifth consecutive 90 at the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 JFK is up to 89 today as well already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 JFK is up to 89 today as well already. It's ridiculously hot on the south shore right now. The ocean basically doesn't exist right now. It's also insanely dry. We missed the June deluge and basically all the summer convection. The last big event missed to the west too. Though we did recieve around .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 It's ridiculously hot on the south shore right now. The ocean basically doesn't exist right now. It's also insanely dry. We missed the June deluge and basically all the summer convection. The last big event missed to the west too. Though we did recieve around .75 it's as brown as I've ever seen it here. Lot of leaf drop already. Dry ground just adding to the higher temps as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 2 things to watch the next 3 days - tomorrow remaining more cloudy/cooler than projected (80 streak NYC/EWR/LGA) - Sat looks like another marvelous days and the weekend streak continues - Sunday being warmer than forecast (90's for warmer spots) Looking ahead 90s possible Sun (9/6) - thu (9/10) for places, epsecially metro. Transient cool down by 9/12 - how much at or below normal remains iffy. May be only 1-2 90s at most if we get there except in the warmest places - then a cool down but run to run differences on how much normal or below normal lasts. If we do hit 90 next week, those may be the last ones finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 May be only 1-2 90s at most if we get there except in the warmest places - then a cool down but run to run differences on how much normal or below normal lasts. If we do hit 90 next week, those may be the last ones finally. by the end of next week we're close to mid Sept, so the 90 degree mark becomes rare. However, given the modeled ridge, next week coupled with bone dry ground could see a fair amount of 90 degree readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 by the end of next week we're close to mid Sept, so the 90 degree mark becomes rare. However, given the modeled ridge, next week coupled with bone dry ground could see a fair amount of 90 degree readings. We'll have to see how dry it remains - a stretch as long as the current heat wave isn't likely at this time though, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Looks like a moderate drought designation was introduced for NE NJ including my county. I wasn't sure if they would but it's definitely gotten a lot drier with very noticeable effects outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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