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The Last Days Of Summer: September 2015 DISCUSSION/OBS


UnionWeatherWx

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Looks like it will make it to 65 straight.

That would put us very close to the record for 80+ in a year.

Friday's the only day that could be somewhat of a challenge if clouds hang on or the maritime flow is stronger than expected.

Upton for Friday for NYC:

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. East wind 8 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

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The number of 80 degrees were much more impressive than the number of 95 or 100 degree days.

 

Newark 30 year 95 degree data with 100 degree days included

 

95/100

 

2015...5/0...so far

2014...2/0

2013...10/2

2012...17/3

2011...16/4

2010...21/4

2009...1/0

2008...7/0

2007...3/0

2006...7/3

2005...14/3

2004....1/0

2003....2/0

2002...15/2

2001...8/3

2000...1/0

1999...15/5

1998...1/0

1997...7/2

1996...2/0

1995...10/1

1994...12/2

1993...24/9

1992...3/0

1991...12/2

1990....2/0

1989....7/0

1988...20/5

1987...13/0

1986...4/1

1985...2/0

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Consistent versus excessive warmth has been the story along with a prolonged dry period.

 

We generally need consistent ridging over the Great Lakes for a higher number of 95 or 100 degree days here.

The Atlantic based ridge this summer provided the warm departures, but the Great Lakes trough kept the major

heat potential lower.

 

Most 95 degree days summer composite since 1980

 

 

 

Great Lakes trough Atlantic ridge this summer

 

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We generally need consistent ridging over the Great Lakes for a higher number of 95 or 100 degree days here.

The Atlantic based ridge this summer provided the warm departures, but the Great Lakes trough kept the major

heat potential lower.

Most 95 degree days summer composite since 1980

comp.png

Great Lakes trough Atlantic ridge this summer

15.gif

yup, our 100+ days happen with eml advection and the midwest trofs block it
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yup, our 100+ days happen with eml advection and the midwest trofs block it

 

You can really see the results of that trough in the departure spread between NYC and Chicago.

 

JJA departures NYC vs ORD

 

NYC

 

-0.2

+2.3

+3.8

 

ORD

 

-1.6

-1.7

-0.6

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