bluewave Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 late October 1982 there was a noreaster with almost 2" of rain in NYC...At the time I thought it was a good sign for the winter...February had a similar storm with cold air to work with and we know how that worked out...1972 was the opposite with a very wet fall... Relative to departures, we have been one of the driest parts of the US since April 1st. We went from cold and snowy Jan-Mar to warm and dry since April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 late October 1982 there was a noreaster with almost 2" of rain in NYC...At the time I thought it was a good sign for the winter...February had a similar storm with cold air to work with and we know how that worked out...1972 was the opposite with a very wet fall... Right now, I'm not too worried about late fall or winter. I fully expect a vigorous subtropical jet to develop with opportunities for some significant precipitation events. There could be some risk of suppression, though. A lot will depend on whether blocking develops and the positioning of such blocking. I remain hopeful that the NYC area will avoid a 1972-73-type outcome with almost no snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Relative to departures, we have been one of the driest parts of the US since April 1st. We went from cold and snowy Jan-Mar to warm and dry since April. GrowPDeptUS.png unless the rest of the year becomes wet 2015 will end up as one of the driest years since 1970... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 We torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Right now, I'm not too worried about late fall or winter. I fully expect a vigorous subtropical jet to develop with opportunities for some significant precipitation events. There could be some risk of suppression, though. A lot will depend on whether blocking develops and the positioning of such blocking. I remain hopeful that the NYC area will avoid a 1972-73-type outcome with almost no snowfall. I hope this year is not like 1972-73...it had very little help from the ao nao because when they went negative it helped keep any storms at the time suppressed to the south...that was a year when everything went wrong...1997-98 was milder and hardly any cold air was available..I think it was worse than 72-73...I too believe the winter won't end up like those but you can't rule that kind of winter out at this time of the year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Today's high temperature at Central Park was 80°. 2015 has now seen a record 112 days on which the temperature reached 80° or above in New York City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 We torch In the discussion the 'experts' admit they are throwing darts, with a 1-out-5 confidence level here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 In the discussion the 'experts' admit they are throwing darts, with a 1-out-5 confidence level here. that's still a pretty big inferno and given the last 6 weeks, I'd go above normal too-that big high is going nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Kudos to forky for calling today's 80 many days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 If one looks at the GFS ensemble 500 mb anomalies forecast for early next week, the pattern is again reasonably similar to some very warm late-September patterns (see #795 in this thread for the maps: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46784-the-last-days-of-summer-september-2015-discussionobs/?p=3681945). Considering the forecast pattern, whether or not tomorrow reaches 80° (and I believe it will), I expect that next week could see one or more additional 80° or above readings. Moreover, the unseasonable warmth could generally persist into at least the first week in October with some chance of at least another 80° or above temperature. Finally, through today, the lowest temperature at Central Park this month has been 59°. September 1910 had the warmest minimum temperature on record for Central Park with a reading of 57°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 In looking at the possible cloud cover at the time of the lunar eclipse (Sunday evening starting I think low (altitude 16deg) in the eastern sky at about 8PM and mid-totaityl about 10:30PM (at about an altitude of 45deg. in southeastern sky) then ending at about 1AM here in NYC---GFS shows border line sky conditions of approx. 50% total cloud coverage but both completely clear skies and completely obscured skies are not far away from us---so maybe we could get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Down to 59 here already after a high of 79. Radiating rather well oddly enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 +6.6 at NYC through the 24th with more 80 degree potential next week after today. July 17th was the last time NYC had a daily departure lower than -1.This may be a first for NYC from mid July into late September. Warmest Septembers in NYC #1..... +5.5 #10... +3.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Radiation fog and the coldest morning since spring at a beautiful 47.3F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 64 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Through September 23rd, NYC is tracking very close to 2010 for the warmest May-September on record. The last week of the month will determine how close 2015 gets to the top. The previous big 4 years were 2010, 1991, 1980, and 1944. updated through 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 82/49 was my split yesterday. ..looks to be even warmer today Dont go summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Drought watch official right now, I was wondering if one would be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Drought watch official right now, I was wondering if one would be issued. usually when they do that, we get a historic dump of rain within a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 No rest for the weary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 No rest for the weary There are signs of a wetter pattern developing first week of October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Had measurable rain on only 16 days since July 1st here...normal would be closer to 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 KNYC, KEWR and KJFK hit 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 KNYC, KEWR and KJFK hit 80 NYC now has a record 113 80° or warmer days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Park up to 81. JFK up to 82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 I see a lot of the models are now showing rain for sunday afternoon and night. GGEM shows a nice steady soaking rain. Do you guys buy it? Boy do I hope we see some rain. The 0.75" of rain I got earlier in the month was the only significant rain I've seen in the last couple months. It's ridiculously dry out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 I see a lot of the models are now showing rain for sunday afternoon and night. GGEM shows a nice steady soaking rain. Do you guys buy it? Boy do I hope we see some rain. The 0.75" of rain I got earlier in the month was the only significant rain I've seen in the last couple months. It's ridiculously dry out there. there's a thread for this. GGEM is a wet outlier and Euro the furthest south. NAM coming in now showing precip having a hard time moving north through Sat night. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46921-927-92815-big-surf-high-astronomical-tides/page-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Maybe a few showers at best. It's been a while since I've seen it this dry. So much dead vegetation and burnt out lawns. Warm month made it a lot worse than it would've been otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 Maybe a few showers at best. It's been a while since I've seen it this dry. So much dead vegetation and burnt out lawns. Warm month made it a lot worse than it would've been otherwise. only thing making it less worse is the decreasing sun angle. But it's bone dry around here, 3rd fall in a row. '13 went dry through Thanksgiving, last year got wet in early October and this year the verdict is out but looks dry through 10/2 or so at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 24, 2015 Share Posted September 24, 2015 +10 max anomaly at KNYC. 82 high. LGA also ended up hitting 81. ISP also hit 80. forky's forkasts are verifying.... I guess no rain Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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